LongBeachSurfFreak

I really really hope we get some rain today, if we do not we are getting close to a damaging drought on the south shore we’re actual trees begin to die.

Yeah, that seems about right. The amazing thing about. Swell with periods of 15+ seconds is the amount of energy they contain. Their wave lengths are huge comparatively as is their speed. The start feeling bottom in deep water and bend and refract based on local bathemotry. So some breaks will seem relatively small and closed out, and other that can focus swell bigger. So your 4’ swell at 17 seconds quickly becomes a 10’ breaking wave. Points are the way to go on that type of swell. Lucky for me on of the best on the east coast south of RI happens to be clos

I was thinking it’s only a matter of time before they have a major hit. Sitting so close to the 26c line, with that line moving north. Kind of like Hawaii. Safe in the past, screwed in the future. And this thing is going to be a prolific swell machine for the entire North Atlantic.

Lorenzo should be a prolific swell producer. Huge size and lots of captured fetch before it fully recurves. Obviously there will be major swell decay but I think this one puts out some big numbers with 16/17 second swell for us next week.

There’s really not much to disrupt. This could easily open back up. If anything ever comes from Karen it will be after it passes PR

I believe it’s a combo of warmer local water temps and less arctic sea ice. There is not a lag in cold air build in the arctic which effects down stream weather.

.11” at both the park and here in wantagh. That’s absolutely not going to cut it. The only thing we have going for us to prevent a crippling drought is the lower evaporation rates and the end of the growing season.

Really, really dry at home on the south shore. Trees starting to drop leaves. It’s a little better on the uws. I’ll be shocked, but of course happy if we crack .10” tonight.

Absolute nightmare pattern for anyone involved in horticulture. Another predicted precip event bites the dust at the last minute. Upton removed amounts from my point and click

Yup, we’ll be lucky to see three drips

Amazingly Humberto caused more beach erosion and washovers then Dorian. This is due to swell periods being significantly higher (16 vs 12 seconds) which contain much more energy. Yesterday at Jones Beach I surfed some of the biggest waves since Bill. Easily some 12 foot sets. Today was smaller in the 8 foot range on the bigger sets. Most interesting to me was the refraction occurring off the Hudson Canyon yesterday which led to waves moving in from the west!!!!! And, please please rain!

East. Long period swells have the ability to bend and refract some areas will be bigger or smaller then expected. Really comes down to local knowledge in regards to what areas will and will not see bigger waves. If I were up in NE I would be looking for points.

12/10 Very warm fall incoming

Swells from Humberto were increasing this morning and should peak Friday with some 8 foot waves. It should rival Dorian in size as Humberto has a huge wind field this morning. The swell being generated now will arrive then as it’s takes time to travel. thats really the only interesting thing going on weather wise. I’m sure everyone’s sick of hearing me complain about having to water!!

Looks like another Bermuda threat. And another prolific swell producer for the east coast.

Could be the snowiest home on the east coast. Summers have got to be incredible too with temps barely above 80 even during heat waves

One thing I can agree with are warm falls. Above normal water temps and lack of sea ice causing a seasonal lag in the arctic for starters. After that the arctic will continue to get cold for the foreseeable future with the complete lack of solar insolation. So cold air will be available. It’s just a matter of the local pattern, can we access that cold air or not. I think we are safe as far as snow chances for a while. My thought is more of a boom or bust type of scenario. With some winters still providing epic periods and blockbuster storms.

Pretty blatant troll post. Do you have anything to back this up?

Takes some serious wind to snap a healthy London Plane. Over 80mph easy. After a great severe season this year we are in one the most boring stretches of weather I can remember. Days and days of watering ahead for me.

That’s exactly how you pull it off with soil moisture running so high to our SW. I’m really hoping for a pattern change ASAP

Verbatim that’s another gradient winter, displace that 100 miles north (which is nothing at this lead time) and it’s lights out for most on this sub forum.

Direction of movement is wrong and fetch size (for us) is relatively small. I wouldn’t call it a prolific swell producer unless that crawl materializes. That Bermuda zone is an excellent swell source for us though. Until it slows it’s going to be a run of the mill moderate swell something like 3.5’ at 11/12 seconds on the buoys

Another front another precip bypass. Not a drop of rain.

It will find a way to not rain in the city or on the island today. Getting dry

Hoping we are not headed into a long dry period after yesterday’s precip fail. I am life guarding this week at Robert Moses field 5. Finishing up season 21. Today has the feel of a dry nor’easter with sand blowing side ways down the beach. The surf isn’t huge but it’s definitely elevated.