LongBeachSurfFreak

I’m talking an extended period, weeks not days. An 01/02 redux is extremely unlikely this winter

If you look at the foot print of Manhattan developers started building around the park fairly early in the 1880s. Since then not much has changed, you have a large park surrounded by buildings. As far as the lows it’s been dry again, need a cloudy day to keep highs down and we haven’t seen that.

Joke? In all seriousness based on what? It’s a pretty safe bet at this point to go with an above normal winter but there should be another cold period sometime in January-March even 2011/12 had at least one cold period.

That seems super suspect. No cold anomalies anywhere. If the arctic is warm that means it’s discharging cold somewhere. It’s also good to see that warmest anomaly in the EPO region.

I need to start a bitch about NYC overuse of salt thread. I think we will have more salt accumulation then snow

Our saving grace for keeping that monster thermo gradient ever present is the Gulf Stream. It’s constantly brings in a fresh supply of ultra warm water from the western Caribbean which is out of reach of these record arctic intrusions. If we see the predominant low track switch to the coast this winter it’s game on. Based on pro forecasts I would take a blend of last years cutter/inland runner tracks and offshore tracks. Kind of a feast and famine winter with one or potentially two cold and snow periods during the heart of the winter. When exactly the stars align is impossible to predict

Not a good situation for the OBX. They are in bad shape from this past hurricane season. I would expect some wash overs and damage with the that kind of fetch. Looks like the swell is directed away from us though

Nice, that’s a big ginkgo. All the leaves on trees around the city will wither crinkle on the trees or drop rapidly now. Amazingly we have seen this multiple times the last few years with these insane temp swings. Luckily it doesn’t seem to kill the trees. 22 in wantagh, very uniform temps across the region. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight with better radiational cooling. I bet if KFOK goes calm they go into the single digits

Getting some solid gusts with the CAA right now. Driven largely by the temp gradient with the still warm ocean more so then a traditional low pressure.

That’s good. There was a biblical amount of salt on the uws. I would have to say as much as I have ever seen, with the other contenders all being last winter. The other thing I forgot to mention, is that trees haven’t gone into hibernation yet (in the city) so that makes it even worse. Add the fact that we do not have any heavy rain coming and it’s going to get all over everything and sit. Plus these super early arctic outbreaks after warm October’s are adding even more stress. This crap genuinely bothers me because I know it’s preventable

That’s exactly it. As a horticulturalist My thoughts go right to the trees. There are some incredible trees on the uws. They are already under pressure on a million different fronts. I can’t imagine this neighborhood (Morning Side Heights) without it’s trees. The ridiculous over use of salt is basically a death sentence if it’s not brought under control. And it’s also bad for public health. I could taste salt in my mouth walking up broadway as busses and trucks throw the stuff in the air. As an aside I’m also in charge of snow removal for the campus I work on. Guess how much salt I put down today? 0

This is a huge problem. I hope the media is on this

Still just a cold rain on the island. Looks like we aren’t going to get a squall type burst with the arctic front but some lingering moisture snows. Obviously the warm ground and weak rates aren’t going to cut it for accumulations.

Yeah but that was a mid winter situation. The most epic snow squall I have ever seen in NYC. Vis down to close to zero and the snow instantly accumulated. That’s not happening this time. What I’m saying is we should see snow in the air with passage of the arctic front regardless of surface temps, it will be plenty cold aloft. The fact that we have real time verification down stream just adds to confidence

There will be a thin line with the actual arctic front that has an enhanced area of precip. That area will have rates intense enough to get snow down to the surface even at the coast. Of course like the event I mentioned there isn’t a shot in hell of it accumulating at the coast as it will be falling with temps around 40 and warm ground.

Interesting, I had 6” in Wantagh. I wonder if it was your proximity to the sound.

There was a very similar event back in the late 90s. Mid November powerful cold front that brought a brief but heavy burst of snow. Despite the crashing temps and heavy snow, it did not stick at all do to warm ground temps. Thats exactly what I would go for with this event.

Ginkos tend to drop leaves faster then any other species once the change color regardless of a hard freeze. My tulip tree did the same thing earlier today as well, just dropped the rest of it’s Leaves despite no wind. Tuesday night/Wednesday anything that survived last night is toast.

23 in wantagh last night. Very impressive cold. Any annuals are shriveled. Perennials and remaining leaves are going right into winter mode.

Based on?

Yeah, allot went wrong last winter. That’s why I think we at least make it to average this winter with one or two snowy periods. The big wild card is another blockbuster

I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run

A million things will change a million times. The pattern is conducive. That’s all we know now.

33 with heavy frost in wantagh this morning thinking inland and elevated for this weeks first snow.

Stuck and extreme patterns are out future. Hopefully we have a stuck pattern this winter that’s conducive for snow