LongBeachSurfFreak

I fixed it for you. Speak for you’re location. This area contains many micro climates. Parts of the east end of the island received .05” during the big New Jersey and lower Hudson Valley flood event. It’s like claiming a region was hit by a hurricane because of a micro burst. Something that is still open to interpretation with colonial weather observations.

Euro AI relies on pattern analogs. Which Jb loves so I’m not at all surprised he has an affinity for it. To me, it looks dead until the 3rd week of August. Shear and dry air are still lurking.

Going to need something tropical/sub tropical for that. And it looks dead until at least late August.

Yeah it’s getting dry. Burned lawns and wilting plants. Pretty par for the course for summer near the coast. Last year was exceptional and second only to the summer 95 Hamptons fire summer drought. Tomorrow looks good for .5-1” for anyone that gets under good convection.

What the water temps are within 25 miles of the coast has little impact on any tropical activity up here. Because we have some of the longest and shallowest continental shelf in the world. Super shallow water has little to no OHC. That’s why it’s left off OHC maps. What we need to focus on is the water temps from 50 to 300 miles off the coast. And those waters are less effected by localized upwelling events. Those waters are currently near record warm. Here’s the Delaware bay buoy

Makes sense as the instruments are on the east side of the park so the wind was blowing off the densely urban UES.

Pretty much mirrors the sea surface temp profile from earlier. Having the subtropics warmer then the tropics destroys vertical instability in the MDR. The reason they think the season is weighted towards the second half is climatological. Seasonally the subtropics will begin to cool faster then the tropics and return a more normal instability profile. Last year should have been a wake up call. Warmer water doesn’t automatically mean a hyperactive season.

Drove through localized flash flooding on the southern state right at the meadow brook. That tiny cell has some insane rates.

Central Jersey storm/ff hot spot does it again. Amazingly consistent year after year down there. Meanwhile just showers amounting to a few hundredths on the island.

The ridiculous dews are slowing the temp drop. Welcome to the jungle!

Thanks for keeping track of that stat don. It was hot right down to the ocean today.

0.0 here today 1” with the last event. Wouldn’t exactly call it water world on the island. Parts of the east end had .10” last event.

You’re in the central Jersey severe alley. That comes with allot of convective rain. Out here in the south shore desert I would pay to see the kind of storms you get.

Changed my plans today for water park to big snow. It’s unbearable even for a water park. I was working on my veggie garden this morning and was drenched in sweat in 20 minutes.

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced.

All the gaurds I work with and we have about 1000 years between us are saying it’s the warmest it’s been this early. Usually you get a day or two in the high 70s in August. Unless we see a reversal to strong westerly’s, sustained low 80s are possible in August.

The water never gets as warm as the land on a sunny summer day. But as we get later into the summer that effect is less and less pronounced. With less solar insulation and water temps at maximum the sea breeze mechanism is muted. Plus you generally have the highest PWAT potential in August.

It’s the sea breeze. You can see the exact thing play out in Florida everyday with water temps there in the mid 80s. It has to do with locally higher pressure over and near the water. As the land heats and warms it creates an area of lower pressure which acts as a focusing mechanism inland. Enhanced convection 30-50 miles inland is exactly what we saw yesterday.

It absolutely did. Amounts drop of a cliff east of the queens border. The east end barely saw a shower.

South shore getting a nice batch of rain currently adding to the .5” from yesterday. I’ll take it.

Nice sunny day at the beach after some morning clouds. Sea breeze is cranking right now. Going to stay dry here as expected.

The timing is just off. This is one of those scenerios where New Jersey gets crushed today, decaying showers cross the western island overnight only ramp back up and slam the east end and southern New England tomorrow. It’s always amazed me how that timing always seems to play out.

And…. We will be lucky to crack a tenth on the island.(south shore mainly)This looks almost entirely instability based and with no focusing mechanism the usual suspects are prime.

Paid. END. OF. STORY. This is dangerous, and the exact reason people die needlessly. It’s simple physics….

Honestly I think this is just a local issue with the super high dews And water temps being in the mid 70s. Easily reaching 100% humidity.