LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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It’s a factor, but not a big one as it’s going to pass over the loop current which continually refreshes new warm water. It’s one of the biggest OHC (ocean heat content) in the world. Think Katrina and Rita. It could certainly weaken slightly after moving into the shelf waters, but surge wise to little to late.
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Exactly. With normal barriers (dunes, walls) gone, there’s nothing to stop the surge. This could be another generational event.
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I’m more concerned with Alaska being cold. -
Kirk is clearing out its eye again. Beautiful presentation. If it were near the east coast it would fill the map. Definitely one of the best eastern Atlantic storms on record, owing to record OHC. Pure ace producer, and surfers delight.
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Not surprising seeing wantagh as the driest spot. Definitely a micro climate dry spot on the south shore of nassua during convection season. Jones beach takes it even further, it looks like a brown waste land their currently.
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I’d say right in the cusp. Large storm and cdo isn’t a full doughnut which is what dvark estimate looks for, symmetry. Probably, my best guess 150mph right now. Cat 4 max. OHC out that far is that high so we are likely whitnessing a full potential storm x
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Kirk really looking impressive now on IR. Eye is cleared out. Could make a run at cat 5 tomorrow.
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It has the perfect combo of intensity, size, and duration (captured fetch directed at the east coast) to send a swell that will be remarkably powerful. Places like the OBX are already in a precarious situation do to erosion. Highly energetic long period swells (rare on the east coast) can cause lots of erosion and beach washoever. A deep water swell with a period greater then 17 seconds contains KE orders of magnitude higher then a similar size wind wave with a period of less then 7 seconds. im not saying this is going to be another disaster by any stretch, just that it maybe deceivingly more impactful then your normal run of the mill cat one moving NE in the open Atlantic.
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Still pouring sheet drizzle on the uws. Very constistant band that had just not moved all day.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Im sure it’s a communication issue. I went through this on 9/11 my mom was an American Airlines flight attended flying that morning and my dad was director of security at trinity church and a retired port authority Lt. who was almost killed at the trade center in the 93 bombing. I was at Towson university in Maryland as a college student and couldn’t get in touch with anyone in my family for hours. Full on panic attack. My mom’s plane was grounded at dfw and my dad was at a training class in midtown. Biggest relief of my life they were both ok. But I fully understand the anxiety. -
It’s been constant sheet drizzle on the uws. I’m happy we got the gradual soaking my we needed but I came into work to dOn an overtime pruning project and ended up soaked, apparently people get soaked too…
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Legit surge damage in cedar key. Not even close to the center. Shows the size of Helene.
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Impressive considering the distance from the center. Truly a massive cane.
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Not surprising given forward speed and interaction with synoptic environment . This was clearly modeled as well. I think that’s why this never goes full on cat 5. Se quadrant is going to be a prolific surge producer.
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Yup, if it reaches full potential I would expect that Katrina/rita look in the gulf.
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Would love to be in Cancun right now. Outflow looks excellent now, I think this is about to go full tilt. RI today with some of the best OHC on the planet.
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Yeah that’s still a giant mess regardless of how deep the convection is.
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
This is spot on. We could see this continue for an another decade or more. Eventually we will cross another threshold (another 1-2c) we’re even winters aren’t cold enough to fully freeze the margins. Then it’s a slow decline to the eventual ice free Arctic. -
I’m in the hamptons right now and it’s cloudy and breezy.
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Alaska cold is our nemesis. We want to see them bake. Keeping expectations low… it’s almost a lock for an above normal temp winter but we can always sneak in a well timed juiced up system.
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The city did a big tree planting this spring on the streets of the uws. Looks like that was a big waste as most are dead or close. I don’t hate this perfect weather as I obviously work outside, but this is getting a little tiring. Another week of zero rain.
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When it’s been dry for an extended period better to bet on more of the same. I think I’m going g to turn into a sprinkler…
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It always seems that way up NW of the city. Takes allot longer to dry out. Down here anything ornamental that’s not irrigated has really started to show stress. I was at my dads Sunday and all the hydrangeas were past the wilt stage and were brown and crispy (he was away for 2 weeks). I’m not saying we’re are in a traditional drought were you have long term large departures but any plants that do not have an extensive root system are at risk in these situations. It’s a big part of the native plant movement, as native plants (non cultivars) tend to have more extensive root systems.
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I tend to agree we end up with some showers. Heavy rain stays south. We are better off starting of with light rain anyway as very heavy rain would tend to run right off the dry hard soil causing potential flash flooding problems.
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Exactly, being a horticulturalist drought is my least favorite weather. This weekend I’m sure people will really start to notice as even weeds on the side of roads are starting to brown out. Luckily we are in a lower sun angle time of year, had this been may or June we have actual problems.
