LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Dreary misty and cool… Typical south shore early spring weather. I remember as a kid before I really understood the reasoning, being pissed seeing a forecast of 75 and sunny on the news and the reality was 55 and fog.
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Nasty squal line in Pa. Might make it the western suburbs but will probably weaken rapidly when it hits the marine layer.
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That’s gotta be a large wedge tornado. The inflow/outflow area is enormous…
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Some amazing super cells in Alabama currently. Check out the hooks on live radar!
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The pine bark beetles? Probably not, we would need a couple nights below zero. The lantern flies definitely not, they are native to Asia where Siberian air masses can drop temps well below zero at our latitude. It’s really about the combo of lowest temps and duration.
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It’s really not shocking. What’s left of the pine barrens will soon be consumed by the southern pine bark beetle anyway. Eventually the pitch pine will be replaced with dwarf red and white oak.
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I was in the city for that one and it wasn’t nearly as impressive as on the island. That storm was all about maximizing the environment with that ridiculous banding that set up over eastern nassua and western Suffolk. 93 was a powerhouse and the coastal impacts were just as impressive as the inland snow. Glaciers floating in the coastal inundation that froze to solid ice. Would love to see a triple phaser ride the bench mark…
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He’s talking about the higher elevations of northern New England and the daks. above 2,000’ snow season ends late April early may. Down here, sure, bring on spring. The only March storm of my lifetime I would like to repeate is 93.
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80s…
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Droughts tend to be self regulating, as in the extremely low soil moisture disallows moisture transport into the clouds. We need a major storm (tropical) or a nor’easter to draw in moisture off the ocean. Unfortunately that’s not going to happen this current high.
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Or 11/12. Hate to say it because snow removal is part of my income… we need things to change big time and fast.
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Likely very similar to what was reportedly experienced in northern New England after the hurricane of 38. Different storm and setup but terrain, PRE, rapid speed (even faster in 38) net a similar result.
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I just have this Irma North of the islands, at 180mph with that massive 60nm eye IR pic stuck in my head. That exact storm going into south Florida is the true national disaster multi generational storm that will one day happen. Hopefully later rather then sooner because it’s going to bankrupt the insurance industry and affect the entire country… (never mind the local suffering)
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Yeah Andrew further north is obviously a disaster of epic proportions, sky scrapers down to the steal beams. But even that isn’t the worst case scenario as Andrew was small and in that case it’s just Miami. The real killer would be an Irma at peak intensity that crushes the entire corridor to Palm Beach.
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That gust has always been suspect to me. Granted it was in the perfect location to maximize exposure and wind funneling through the harbor on a south east wind. I don’t think it’s representative of what the rest of the city experienced or that storm would have produced prolific tree damage above and beyond any other storm, which from same basic research it did not.
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Excellent post. The luxury factor is a big part of why I think the hurricane of 38 should be higher up the list. The hamptons has some of the most expensive real estate on the planet and was literally ground zero. While there were some estates even in 38 the vast majority of the area was farms and sleepy fishing villages. Miami speaks for itself. That’s the big “yet” I can certainly think of a much worse case then 26. Think Dorian at peak intensity landfalling right in south beach.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
It’s not an exact science, but they use observations of storm size and strength. Mostly ship reports. I’m sure some seasons are under reported as a mid ocean hurricane could have missed ships. -
Tropical cyclone Tracy 1974 the smallest landfalling major in history had a peak surge of 13’. And tropical storm force winds only extened out 30 miles. So yes is is very important but so is intensity.
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Some surprisingly strong winds gusts this afternoon on the uws, we often get enhancement being up in morningside heights right on the Hudson. Some small branches down, so around 40 I would think.
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Yeah it’s bad enough now, luckily most plants are just going to go straight into hibernation. Had it been summer they would have just died. In the 10 years I have been in charge of horticulture for Columbia/Barnard this is the driest stretch I have seen. Usually it’s a couple weeks this time it’s been months.
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In NE PA, rollling thunder and 43 degrees. At least they are getting some drought relief. All the creeks and streams were down to basically a trickle.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The good thing is, the Caribbean specifically in the basin between Jamaica and Central America has year round water temps above 26 historically. And it’s doesn’t always produce storms after November, due to other factors mainly shear. The WPAC does however… -
Can barely see a tinge in lynbrook. I’ll be in Pa near the ny state border tomorrow night. Will try again
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My coworker is obsessed. He couldn’t believe he was alive. I tried to explain yesterday he would be ok where he was. Guys certainly interesting and now famous.
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Another major factor is the size and depth of the continental shelf. Also the angle of the coast and direction of landfall.
