LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Highly unlikely especially Sunday. Despite distance Ernesto is going to be a very large storm, with a huge fetch area. So it’s going to produce a huge long period swell. Add strong sw winds Sunday ahead of the cold front and it’s a perfect storm dangerous rips. I expect all guarded Beachs to be red flagged and closed. This is the type of swell we usually see in September after peak season. Also expect wash overs and more erosion. Long period swells are especially energetic and tend to wash right over beaches. So a lake where this beach usually is.
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Exactly, it’s right on pace. Too much focus on looking for cat 5 symmetry. The Largest impacts for the for the US are going to be high surf and rip currents, moderate beach erosion and wash overs. Regardless of final peak intensity this storm is forecast to become very large increasing fetch and thus wave heights. Because it’s mid August and prime beach season this is a dangerous situation for swimmers.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
There are beasts on the horizon. Even if we do not make the forecast number of storms (who cares about naked swirls in the mid Atlantic anyway) all it takes is a couple landfalling majors to make for a high impact memorable season. -
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Ugh. A small, rapidly moving hurricane in the Caribbean…. It maybe used .0001 of the potential energy stored. It’s very difficult to explain in words so I’m not going to go there. If you understand, you understand. -
Yep, it’s been traveling over more heat content than most classic storms from the past. Throw that in with rapid movement and relatively small size and there is almost no up welling cooler water temps. It’s hard to up well when your 28c therm is 1000 meters deep.
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That oceanic heat content hasn’t been disturbed in a few years: add that to the fast movement and it’s just heat heat heat. Being able to overcome normal factors…..
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For the Atlantic absolutely. What I think we need to start considering is the NPAC where waters have always been warmer. Hence the many intense super typhoons over the years.
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Yeah definitely dark with rolling thunder but nothing like the other night, we’ll see. At least I’ll take the rain.
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Actually pouring finally in lynbrook, after the first storm fell apart. Not severe by any means but decent.
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It’s pretty much inevitable this time of year on western long Long Island. Somehow eastern suffers ok does better despite being further into the ocean.
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Had to have had over an inch here as the hail core moved through. I have a great video that’s on my social:
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Winds were like 40ish, but what Impressed me was the hail.
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Best storm in several years in south nassua. Lots of pea sized hail
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If this misses the city I’m going to lose it!
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Very impressive upwelling event off of New Jersey the last 2 days. Water temps went from 72 to 61! That’s huge, and probably historic. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091
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It’s really strange. Because even the east end had storms yesterday and today. And currently there is a nice line of storms over Nantucket. One of yhese days I’ll figure it out. But we have gone to flash drought for sure.
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Going to be a 00.00” and another 00 for today on the south shore. I guess this was the climo before we started changing the environment 200 years ago. The extreme south shore was an extension from of the pine barrens. For lack of water not lack the of the soil nutrients.
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Wow, this sucks, for those of us that care about plants on western Long Island. We totally missed again (yesterday too): the last line in Pa is wreaking as expected.
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Looks like we are playing split the city with the first round of storms. Really need rain on the island
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I taught my whole life guard crew about the abtoss jet today. About as perfect of an example as you can get. It’s a full on sand storm now and the ocean is just white water. Have to be 40mph gusts now
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That’s not every beach. At jones we close at 8 and often 830 during heatwaves. it’d currently a full on sand storm at jones and im getting blasted as i type. Definitely gusting into the 30s. Wave heights have increased to 6’ or so and building fast. Numerous rescues so far.
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Easily getting 30mph gusts now at jones beach.
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You would never know what’s coming later at jones beach currently. Winds are moderate around 20 knots and wave height about 3’. As I have experienced many Ambrose jet events over the years it comes on hard around 3pm and peaks around 6, sometimes doubling in speed from 2-4. Wave heights can triple as well. Really hoping for some good rains later as well. If we get some good convection move into the abrose jet we potential for a giant roll cloud, which is the be of the most amazing meteorological events we have here.
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Light jacket weather, too hot for a hoodie.
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This is exactly the point. For all intents and purposes this is a heat wave regardless of the park. But the media reports the park, I heard on 120wins yesterday “looks like we are going to avoid a heat wave” it’s just wrong and annoying to people like us. meanwhile it’s another perfect beach day at jones beach, the waters turquoise and pushing 70. Which is incredible for June. A full moth ahead of schedule
