LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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A few flurries in lynbrook. Usually with a clipper track like this we would just have drizzle.
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Should drop at least an inch in the poconos then start to break apart. Wouldn’t be surprised if within 20 miles nw of the city sees a coating. In the city temps are too marginal unless it really comes down.
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Yeah, cold and snow cover, makes more cold and snow cover. Kind of how snow ball earth was a runaway feedback cycle to cold. You have record low snow cover over our cold air source region. That’s going to increase solar absorption. We are lucky we even made it to double digits snowfall wise. This could easily have been 97/98 up in till now (.5” cpk)
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Way too early to say that with a definite answer.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The really incredible part is the UP of Michigan. That’s snow heaven. I’m sure they average like a 50” snow depth in February. -
Yeah I measured 5” on the uws average of 10 colder surface measurements. Broadway was plowed here. Whole other world north of the park
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Completely different world a few miles north on the uws. 5” and even Broadway was snow covered and plowed
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Broadway on the uws is currently snow covered. Legit heavy snow currently
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It was moderate sleet in lynbrook when I left for work (snow removal) at 230. Currently moderate snow UWS with nice big flakes. Getting a coating on the grass.
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I think one more is more realistic. But might as well shoot for the stars. Would be nice to at least crack double digits at CPK
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What eventually happens in the city will come down to banding. As this is a dynamic rapidly deepening system with plenty of moisture, 2” hour type bands should set up during the hight of the storm. If they end up over the city, it will accumulate even on pavement. I think the November rush our crusher attests to what rates can do. If we end up with .5” hour rates, it’s a grass storm. (City)
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I have to admit I did not see this one coming. I still think your going to see the highest totals just outside the urban heat island and the immediate coast do to the marginal airmass at the start. But anyone even urban areas, that gets into the ccb with 2”+ hour rates will have no problem accumulating. I’m thinking big giant flakes. This is going to be a pure snow globe event. Hopefully minimal tree damage and power outages.
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Not with a crap airmass. You need it to pound to scour out the urban heat island. This is going to come down to rates or you’re going to waste allot of snow. Outside the city and the immediate coast, not as big a concern.
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During heavy snow you can force the temp quickly down to 32. We have seen this in many late season events (which this basically mirrors do to the ascendant airmass) So for the city and coast if we can get heavy rates there’s a definite upside. If all we can manage is moderate, then it’s a slushy grass and car topper. Any elevation, even a couple hundred feet could be key here. Having done snow removal for a decade on the uws, I have seen multiple events like this were we have several inches up there and CPK and midtown struggle to accumulate. Being at 150’ and just north of the main heat island helps.
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One of my favorite storms. I was in college just north of Baltimore and had a 30” pack after the storm. No classes for a week, party after party. Drunk sledding on campus. Good times.
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Think mid March storm. Urban nyc is really going to struggle with temps. To me this is a 3” in the NW Bronx and zip in midtown type scenario. We are really going to be relying on heavy banding as the low is pulling away for anything meaningful closer to the coast. Is it possible of course. But could easily be white rain.
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Sounds about right, I’m going for 1-2” here on the far uws, where we usually do far better then the south shore in this type of setup. So based on that, a coating or zip on the south shore.
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Look at where the 32/540 line is depicted. That’s a slush fest at best for the city and coast. I would expect a car/grass topper. 50 miles inland and above 1000’ is looking great for this one.
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Yeah. This really isn’t a stretch. Pretty much everything you want to see for a busy season lining up. Does that mean we get hit? Of course not, but it does mean a prolific swell season for area beaches regardless of tracks.
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I have been about a dozen times over the years. It’s amazing on a fresh snow day, but holds up its rep when the wind is howling and it hasn’t snowed. Most vertical in the east by far and if you add the chutes the most challenging terrain.
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Storm track dependent yes. It’s still prime snow climo. Luckily we aren’t seeing this a month later or for sure we would be in trouble.
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The Adirondacks aren’t ideally situated for snow. The orientation doesn’t produce upslope like the greens. The western portion which does get enhanced lake effect is nearly unpopulated. And the largest ski resort whiteface has the reputation as ice face do to it being a nearly stand alone peak. That means it’s extremely wind prone and doesn’t produce upslope well. Personally I love it up there.
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Baked Alaska let’s goooooooo. Bring the cold, keep it long enough in a nino and something will eventually work out. It’s not going to be cold and dry for three straight weeks.
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Yeah you gotta watch the Oliver stone doc on nuclear, incredible. Some amazing safe small scale tech now exists. But unfortunately country’s like Germany are shutting down their remaining reactors, in favor of so called green tech like burning trees. Which they import without hesitation from all over the world. The real fix will come when we have viable fusion, that’s the game changer.
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That triple combo is a lock to produce mid to late February if it occurs. We just need all those pieces to finish the puzzle. We did extremely well in 13/14 14/15 with that combo.
