LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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I recorded 11.5” for the season at 120th and Broadway. Obviously the park was low, first Feb event 5.5” while the park was 3.2” for example.
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There are plenty of us who love the seasons being the way they are supposed to be. I’m a horticulturalist and these early warmups are awful for dormant plants. If it’s going to get warm early it has to stay warm or we risk damage.
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It’s above my skill level but I’m sure someone can go pack and look at the synoptic pattern in 54 specifically. It’s really just a roll of the dice. A pattern conducive to a north east landfall exists multiple times a year, it’s just a matter of lining up a cane with said pattern. -
If you look at the history of majors in the north east there is one about every 70 years. So I would hardly say we have switched out of that pattern. On the contrary we are due. It’s only anger of time. Cat 3 winds will decimate the power grid, and make sandy look like a walk in the park:
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March has always been my favorite month in the mountains. Tons of snow, fully open terrain, slightly warmer weather and diminishing crowds. Not looking promising outside of the furthest north mountains, like White Face, Jay and Sugarloaf. Depending on how it plays out I may do a long weekend at sugarloaf.
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It’s never a lock that we see a hurricane locally, but odds are certainly higher than normal this season. I fully expect a parade of major hurricanes coming out of the MDR this season.
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There’s a climate change sub forum with a thread on sea ice.
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Really roaring currently at in Lynbrook. I do not have an anemometer (besides a hand held) but based off the sound in the trees some of the strongest gusts in a couple of years.
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We do not even need something that strong. A nice loop track like 1888 with 2020’s moisture would do the trick. 1888 is far and above the best winter storm in our area after 1850. With a snow board I’m sure NYC had 30+.
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What I would really like to see before we pass the tipping point is an area wide 30”+ mega storm. What we really need is a reshuffle to get us back to a more -epo pattern again. Hopefully this will El Niño reshuffled the deck. A super high ACE season looks like a lock, which often precedes a good winter. We don’t need much to beat the last 3.
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A couple of sleet pellets mixed with rain currently on the uws. Looking forward to warmer days.
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Which is impossible over thousands of miles of boreal forests in northern Canada. Just like the fires last summer couldn’t be put out. There is zero infrastructure, no roads, thousands of lakes and bogs not to mention mosquitoes swarms that block out the sun.
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He would have died eventually from arsenic poisoning. He was subsisting exclusively on rats which are loaded with arsenic from eating bait traps. The rats are building an immunity to rat poison over time.
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What a would give for a VEI 7 in our lifetime. Obviously somewhere unpopulated. Say Kamchatka. I would love to walk across the Hudson to New Jersey, something that happened regularly in the LIA. Solid snow pack from mid November to mid April. The kind of winter you now have to go a thousand miles north for or over 3000’.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I’m fairly confident we are going to see a historic season. The only hindrance from record breaking may be a Nina background state lag early on. Once to peak season, we should fire on all cylinders. I can see a 2017 type parade of high end storms tracking out of the MDR. Bermuda high placement will determine if it’s a CONUS year. -
Winter '23-'24 Will Be A Lesson In Relativity
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Thanks for sharing. I too am in recovery. We are passionate people. As you stated a big part of recovery is learning redirect that passion in positive ways. You do a great job of that with your seasonal forecasts which I enjoy every year. Congratulations on 10 years, that’s an amazing accomplishment! -
I’m sure you would have said that in 97/98 when NyC was at .5” and on the way to the record only to have that 5” storm in March. March is volatile and probably the hardest month to forecast far out due to the shortening wave lengths. It’s not over yet.
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97/98 was full of benchmark rainstorms. Little bit different scenario, with the entire continent flooded with pacific air, but same net result.
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Agreed, while not a full rat winter, this has been more of a Richmond Virginia style winter.
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About 2” on the uws, which was exactly my forecast. Curious to see what we got on the south shore. I bet the barrier islands were the winners with close to 6”.
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Boxing Day was definitely more of a true blizzard than 2016. Winds, visibility, temps and drifting make a blizzard more so then just total accumulation . Boxing Day was far superior in all those categories. It also had a much larger impact on the average NYer with many neighborhoods unplowed and impassible for days. Basically moderate pixie dust on the uws
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About 1” on the uws, can’t get above moderate rates. All surfaces snow covered however
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Light snow on the uws. Based on the radar trend on the heavy band looks like this area is going to just a little too far north for the best snow. At home on the south shore of the island we should be in the northern part of the best banding. I’m thinking a Monmouth county jack for our area, it’s been a while!
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Ballistic hurricane season upcoming. May start off slow with the lingering nino effects, but peak season could produce record ACE. Lots of tracking coming.
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There are two manhattans. From the north end of the park north, does just fine in marginal events. The northern tip of Manhattan is Almost as far north as the northern Bronx. Midtown south is another story. Concrete jungle.
