Jump to content

LongBeachSurfFreak

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,503

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I wouldn’t write off Franklin for a major. Plenty of warm water in its later life, and that area loves to produce majors historically
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly, I feel like there is too much focus on winds and the structure of the storm. None of that matters when you’re pushing precipitable water values near 3” over serious mountains. There really aren’t any historical precedents for this. Except maybe some typhoons in places like the Philippines. There are going to be incredible videos of arroyos turning into raging torrents
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    .00” at the wantagh meso. Impressive how tight the gradient was right along the south shore. meanwhile it took me an extra hour to get to work on the uws, driving through a flooded out cross island
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Similar. Except the area of cold water (buffer) is much larger and significantly colder. Speaking of which we are losing our buffer and will eventually (by the end of the century likely) be prime major hurricane coastline. Without the need for fast speed out of the Gulf Stream to limit weakening.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself.
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Not happening. Later in the season maybe. Needs to rocketing NE to survive the water tr is around 20c..
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That complex off the south Jersey coast eould be an epic flooder if it were over land.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah they aren’t the plague they were originally billed to be. We actually had more last summer on the uws than this summer. Finally a droughtless summer on the island I’m more interested in that.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Best light show in a decade. It’s so rare to get that continuous lighting on the island. Memorable
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s no joke like watching a fire work show finally right now. Nom stop with numerous very intense nearby cloud to ground strikes. Watching from my outdoor covered porch spellbound. guess those supercells over Ohio held together
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely epic storm in lynbrook. Best in many many years. Currently continuous lighting. 50ish mph gusts to to start. Soooooo happy I woke up
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah I think that area is our best best for anything significant. Has been producing tons of supercells. So obviously allot instability/shear with that zone heading east
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty epic super cells in eastern Ohio right now headed into PA. As per usual I doubt much survives for us later
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I hate to say it but I agree. I think too many people, pros included are warm water drunk so to speak. The Atlantic could be 40c and if there’s a ton of shear and dry air it doesn’t matter. That said, any storm that finds a moist low shear area has the potential to go nuclear. This is basically what long term climate models are forecasting. More cat 5s and less 1/2s relative to climatology.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Right…. Slow but not forgotten. Though I think some of the major forecast have a high bust potential.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Dora looks spectacular this morning. This is going to be one monster ace producer as it has several more days as a major.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Damn looks like a cold pool aloft type precip shield. We will take the rain on the drought stricken south shore
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I guess you’re not following forks. Elevated …..
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That has all the hallmarks of a derecho on radar for south/central Jersey. This might be a memorable event down there
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Definitely a derecho in progress. Just insane radar as it went through northern MD
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Storms west of the DC area look like something out the Great Plains. It’s going to be one hell of a day there. we are finally destabilizing here, so I wouldn’t totally write our are off
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. Fetch and duration are actually equally important. You can get captured fetch when a storm is moving fast enough to entrain its own swell. So there is likely a large east swell moving with the storm currently, but to the westerly movement it will miss the islands. The best example of captured fetch was hurricane bill of 08 in the north east. The storm was moving north west towards the coast with a large captured swell ejected as the storm eventually turned north. That produced the largest swell I have witnessed on Long Island. With sets in the 15 foot range causing massive wash overs and beach erosion under sunny sky’s.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Yeah I was surprised know when was talking about this storm. Very resilient microcane. Contains some annular properties which would explain the resilience. Very long track too
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Zip on the island and the city last night. Always surprises me when a front comes through dry this time of year. Onto Monday/Tuesday
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Some very nice storms over Pa and upstate currently. We are kind of in the squeeze play between that action and precip down south
×
×
  • Create New...