LongBeachSurfFreak
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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak
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Not surprising. It’s only a matter of time before we get one of those extreme heat domes and crush all kinds of records. If the pac nw and Europe can do it, so can we.
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El Nino 2023-2024
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think we will see a large number of sheared out tropical storms. MDR production should be above normal corresponding to warm water temps. Anything that finds a hole in the shear could go nuclear however. -
Oceans closed to swimming yet again at Jones beach due to distant lighting from that central Jersey storm. Second time today yet it hasn’t rained for more than a couple minutes of drizzle. Super annoying for someone like myself who understands local meteorology. It’s not going to rain let alone have lighting at the beach today. The powers that be who are going by forecasts are convinced theses thunderstorms are coming.
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Officially 7 drops of rain at Jones beach. We had clear thousands of people off the beach for an incoming thunderstorm (the states call) I would barely call it partly cloudy with a few drops. Blue sky to the south and east the entire time
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Gorgeous day at Jones beach full sunshine. Big differences between north and south shore.
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Gorgeous beach day at Jones beach currently, full sunshine. I highly doubt any rain makes it this far south.
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It’s pretty spectacular how pronounced this pattern has been. The current radar shows it perfectly. Flooding issues pretty much surrounding the metro, but absolutely nothing survives. I’m not sure if this is a recent thing, or this has been going on forever and we are only just noticing (in my cases because I constantly check the radars from my phone) I think it’s a little bit of both. I remember plenty of good summer storms on the island that were the result of MCS systems that did make it all the way to the beaches.
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Pretty much. However the water temps have gone up significantly in the last week. That generally helps with convection. Sometimes you will see cells fire once they get 150 miles or so offshore and hit the Gulf Stream.
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It’s really the humidity. We haven’t had any sustained heat. The beach is empty once again despite the morning being full sunshine. Not a drop of rain fell here yesterday after the predawn showers.
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Exactly. We had more right on the south shore of the island (the traditional summer drought capital) this morning with the warm front. I’m hoping the next line at least holds. I am responsible for an important campus and it’s watering needs on this me uws. I’m on vacation till Wednesday. Unfortunately my coworkers think it’s been raining a ton due to forecasts. Normal people due to stalk radar. But that’s why my gardens are the best of the best.
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Uws has had maybe a few tenths today. Brooklyn/ northern queens got that discrete cell that just dumped and dumped. Let’s see what survives before we call it…
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Very localized storms, of course missing the two areas I need it to rain. Uws mainly. I was just thinking about all the rain forecast for area beaches and its effects on crowds. This is the slowest start to the summer I have seen in 25 years life guarding at Jones beach and it basically hasn’t rained at all here. Currently sunny, with hardly anyone on the beach. Black clouds on the mainland.
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New Jersey south of the city, you bet it will. Luckily we got some convection on the island this morning. The city has been striking out repeatedly though.
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Flowers in bloom till January….
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Just had really good downpour on the south shore, it’s about time. Somehow all the precip managed to miss Manhattan though, the strike out streak continues there
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That would be incredible if it verified. That’s a beautiful little MCS that would definitely have wind. I don’t want to jinx it, it’s been tuff getting anything to survive east of the city. The good news is water temps have warmed up tremendously in the last week, into the low 70s near shore. From wetsuits needed to nice.
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Looks like my place in lynbrook did well. Where I grew up in south wantagh and is still my dads house has managed to miss every single rain event in the last week. I remember as a kid old (original buyers) saying it never rains in south wantagh in the summer. Only north of the southern state. Looks like that’s dead on accurate. Based on current water temps being close to what they were in the 60-80s during the summer. Moving forward Long Island as done well, including south wantagh once the water cracks 75. We had a record flash flood event about 10 years ago in august were we received about 6 inches in 2 hours. (Not the islip event)
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SE mass, getting absolutely crushed this morning. Takes some validity away from my cool water destroys convection theory. So there is more to the story as to why western LI (mainly south shore) has completely struck out. We’ll see what happens later today…. Maybe we finally score…
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Yup, it hit the force field at NYC and, boom, gone. Pretty amazing to watch day after day. We need ocean temps to warm past 70. Kind like why socal never sees rain in the summer, water temps in the. 50s/60s are just convection destroyers. that’s why you see front reinvigorate after they get to the Gulf Stream. This has happened the last three days
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Wow at the 5” totals. I’m sitting at .05”. Has to be one of the greatest cutoff events for our area. With so Many days and so many chances and every single one a fail on the immediate south shore. I don’t think Jones beach has even had .001”
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.03” for JFK for this entire event so far. Thats absolutely incredible. Watch the line disappear as soon as it gets to queens later. There is a very valid reason for this. Water temps are in the low 60s which is an extremely stable temp. Thats why most of Long islands extreme rain events of the past have been in august when temps are in the 70s
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Usually the city does fairly well and it’s only the island that gets screwed. But wow, we can’t buy decent rain on the uws. Just a couple showers today. It’s, not over though.
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That’s exactly why I would choose the mountains, plenty of amenities with the ski resorts year round. Plus that part of upstate ny is flat, so not generally that pretty.
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For us yeah, but south Jersey is priming nicely. I fully expect some incredible storms there later.
