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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It would be incredible to see a hypothetical high end hurricane perfectly follow the contours of the gulf of California. Waters plenty warm and just wide enough if you could get that perfect track. Also you might get the tightening micro cave effect that often occurs in the southern bay of Campeche due to mountain interactions.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That really is the worst thing we could see for winter enthusiasts. I’ll be honest after this hurricane season completely shit the bed I wouldn’t be shocked by some surprises.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Definitely a large area of strong winds in the SE quadrant based on buoy observations. We often see this in storms with trough interaction. Going to be a good blow for SE LA. One thing I would be on the lookout for is surge east of the center with said winds and captured fetch.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Insane water temps will do that. I agree with your earlier comment that we have a halfcane coming with this one.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Here we go flash drought. Amazing how our new normal is either too much rain or not enough. Lots of watering this week….
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m sure you’re extra excited about the hyper active season fail. From a purely “we have allot to learn” standpoint so am I.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Really getting dry out there. I thought September was a lock for major rains, then the tropics failed big time!
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    What’s going currently perfectly illustrates what climate models have been predicting for a long time. Increased HC isn’t linear with increased hurricane numbers. Though high end cat 5s can become hypothetically more common. One thing for sure is that LI and NE are loosing the cold water buffer that once shielded us from majors. While they will continue to be rare, the high end has more potential.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This would be a great pattern during the winter. Based on the hurricane season forecast falling apart it would be great to see the winter forecast (warm) to do the same…
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty much a perfect beach day at jones beach, full sun all day, turquoises water and lots of whales.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Literally praying for the cell over central Jersey to make it to the uws. Otherwise I have to spend the entire day watering. It’s going to be close…
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Maybe cleared .01 in lynbrook. From too Much rain back to flash drought…
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. It’s easy to forget multiple naked swirls in mid Atlantic that receive names. It’s not easy to forget landfalling majors.
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Loading for the big show. Keeping those OHC nice and high. I’m not wish casting destruction, but ideally I would love to see a parade of majors come out of the MDR just north of the Caribbean and cruise between Bermuda and Obx. Lots of surf and little damage.
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Feels like a fall morning. I’m sure our resident hoodie guy is super excited!
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If yesterday’s event weren’t historic enough. Might challenge the islip record 24 total if that cell keeps sitting there….
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    6 hours: 6.92″ 1 day: 7.77 Stoneybrook meso. It’s the real deal.
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If you told me 3 hours ago the heaviest stuff was yet to come I would say your nuts. But here we are. I just witnessed multiple close CTG strikes. Back to 2”+ hour rates too. Going to be major basement flooding again.
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Extremely loud thunder in lynbrook. Just woke me up. Here we go again.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s what I’m worried about. The basement apartment below me flooded with 5’ of water last year with the 8” rain event. It wasn’t a good scene. This is an extremely efficient rain event like we have seen the last decade with increasing reoccurrence times. Radar often doesn’t do justice to the rates in the center of these plumes.
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Had a 5 minute burst of rain in lynbrook that was the heaviest i have ever experienced without lightning. Extremely loud, sounded like hail and was near white out. Must have been brief rates near 5-6” an hour. Luckily short lived.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Ernesto looks the best it has its whole life on visible currently. Perfectly symmetrical with a nice eye. Gulf Stream OHC!
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Continues to pour in western Nassau, round after round after round. Hopefully this is the last batch as the radar is clearer to the south now.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This is actually a very interesting setup for swell generation aimed at the east coast. Normally in a more symmetrical hurricane swell aimed at the east coast which is generated in the SE quadrant has to pass through equally strong opposing winds as it passes through the NW quadrant knocking down wave heights significantly. In this case there is much less opposing wind so swell will be free to exit. This weekend should be very interesting as beaches are still in full summer swing. Usually these types of events occur in September when the crowds are gone.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This year has been more quality versus quantity so far. We're on the 'E' storm. Some of the more recent high number of named storm seasons also saw a lot of weaker TCs and ST systems that formed in the early months. This year we've only had two weak systems develop that did not become hurricanes. Even Chris probably would have become a BOC 'cane given more time over water. I suppose we may still see a plethora of central Atlantic systems form at higher latitudes during September and October besides the more potent southerly systems. But overall, I don't think this year would be remembered by busting on total number of named storms if indeed we do witness a significant number of intense hurricanes. Again, quality over quantity. 2017 was a horrible record season that did not hit 20 named storms. Only 17 formed that year, in fact. 2017 is a great example. If everything aligns properly durning peak we could easily see several majors back to back. Very high impact high end majors given the OHC being in uncharted territory. I always think back to 92, a lack luster season, that produced a storm that if 20 miles further north would have changed this country forever.
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