LongBeachSurfFreak

Too little too late. Just too much going against another period of intensification. More then likely the effects of baroclynic forcing. The wind field is definitely increasing and highest winds will probably stay steady state low end cat 3. This is, was and always will be about a record surge into a major population centers

Incredible. The resilience is textbook. Time is running out for weakening. And while it will obviously weaken the fact that it’s still so strong now into the final climb towards landfall means the surge and wave setup is that of a cat 5. Very Katrina.

I mean I hate to bring up the S word since allot of people on the board freak, but we went through this is with Sandy. The whole (well Irene wasn’t bad) so I’m not leaving. I have lots of friends who left for Irene then insisted on staying for sandy and obviously majorly regretted it. And that was only about 8/9’ of surge and cat one winds. 10+ and major winds are infinitely more life threating

I can’t argue against the data, but I will say the size of the eye is larger then last night. Those tiny pin hole eyes often produce the highest winds in respect to pressure. When the WPAC had recon in the past there were many more typhoons (sub 900 though pressures run slightly lower there) that could give you the real answers.

Absolutely watching history right now. Cannot be stressed enough how serious the surge threat is for Florida. This second sub 900 intensification is the absolute last thing Florida needed. Katrina is the only other storm that’s in this ballpark, and somewhat similar in that, the surge will not match the landfall intensity. Scary stuff

Still passes over the current, just not in the loop itself. Regardless water temps the whole way can easily support a major and aren’t really the biggest factor here. That will be eventual shear/dry air. I like how the NHC mentions last minute baroclinic fourcing. That’s where you develope that potential sting jet that may bring wind damage further inland then normal as you aren’t relying on the thunderstorms in the eyewall to produce strong winds.

Exactly, I’m just saying the worst truly catastrophic damage will be in the Sarasota area. Milton will also have a swath of inland wind damage right through Orlanda basically paralleling the developed interior of Florida.

I just spent some time looking at the coast on google earth in the Sarasota area (ground zero for surge in my opinion) and there is an incredible amount of development in very precarious locations. Huge condo buildings right on the gulf. With 15’ of surge and huge battering waves on top catastrophic damage is likely. This isn’t a Michael and Mexico beach, you have thousands of Mexico beaches. That’s why I think this has the potential to be the costliest hurricane in US history. 200-300 billion

That’s the problem I’m wearing my cheese hat today, fresh cheddar. What site are people using for current satellite images? NHC is prettt much frozen….

Before I go full on sarcasm, care to explain why you feel this way? I’m pretty sure a sting jet with gusts over 100mph well inland is a pretty big deal.

It’s definitely a factor. It’s a question of how low can you go… As in how small of an eyewall can you get before it collapses and leads to a EwRC. We may see the high end of what pure physics can produce. Next recon is telling and potentially record setting.

Starting to have Hyian look, the strongest satellite recodrded storm in world history. Crazy thing Is, this is happening in a parT of the basin that shouldn’t support it. Absolutely top of the line storm.

Stronger storms tend to end up poleward. More to grasp on to the westerlies, I still think there are more surprises in the way: this is in no way shape or form a typical Atlantic storm.

Agreed likely sub 900 now, pin hole contracting

West during the highest winds. Not a great spot for this as there will be a sting jet developing. You may see low precip major hurricane winds, something extremely rare (and destructive)

I mean the city will still be there, the skyscrapers can easily withstand cat 4 winds. It’s the surge that will change the a city forever. This is the 3rd of the big three surge catastrophes possible in our country with Katrina/NO and Sandy/NY,NJ the other two.

The rate of intensification is off the charts. Some of the hurricane models have had higher peak intensity at times like 890mb when passing over the loop current. How strong this actually gets will obviously come down to timing of EWRC

Exactly. Allot of very serious inland wind damage. Like complete collapse of the power grid type damage. Disney would never be the same if this verified.

That’s a sign of the storm maximizing the environment. I think we go 915mb 165mph before an EWRC. Watching history today…

Still has to pass over the loop current. While I do not think this will continue to strengthen right into landfall we likely haven’t seen peak intensity yet.

Not a drop on the uws. The only good news is, it’s getting to the end of the growing season.

This has to be you’re worst all time post. I’m not wishing for another major disaster, but this is a lock for another 50 billion plus storm. Why, Population.

Wind wise, that would be great. But surge wise Katrina wrote the book in regards to building a surge, that propagates like a tsunami even after winds diminish.

Where’s my stapler…. I feel so bad talking shit about this storm. This is really going to be a generational disaster. I have a very close friend in TPA visiting her daughter and first grand child and I keep trying to stress to her how serious this is. She keeps saying they didn’t flood during Helene and the house is new and well constructed. All of which are good but all bets are off if this plays out the way I think it’s going to. I lived 4 blocks from the beach during Irene in 2011 in a ground floor apartment, we had 6” of water and I moved after. Sandy a year later and that same apartment had close to 6 feet. I keep telling all my friends to evacuate and get their cars out of Long Beach and everyone said “Irene was a bust and this will be the same” well every single person lost their car and or their home. (Luckily all survived) I just can’t stress enough how serious this is for TPA. Better safe than sorry.

I agree, despite the hyperactive hurricane season not materializing, we are still in a historic monitory season. Which was well forecast. (Regardless of how we got there)