SnoSki14

First time I'm seeing a -NAO signal pop up in months. Late October has been a prime hotspot for storminess and I'd be shocked if we don't see something significant.

Widespread frost looks likely for interior areas for the middle of next week. Current forecast is upper 30s but could trend lower.

Yes it was awful, thank goodness most places received 1-2" (2.25"+ locally). Looks like S/E NJ had 3-5".

Pouring right now, must be over 0.5".

Heavy convective blow up to the NW down in northern VA.

https://www.weather.gov/marfc/NJPrecipitationMTD No, most of NJ at least has been below thus far.

I'd be surprised if we see anymore with this. We're actually behind precip wise this month so rain would be welcomed.

Michael is no Andrew however if he had more time before landfall then those stronger winds would've mixed down as he was still intensifying. The cat 4 winds were very localized and more widespread cat 2-3 conditions were likely. I'm sure we'll see more damage reports roll out over the next few days. The idiotic statements are however too much to read, Cat 2 only with sub 920mb pressures for a relatively average sized cane? Yeah I don't think so.

I think a near Cat 5 at the FL panhandle will win the prize this year.

Don't worry guys, this is only a Cat 1 according to Cranky. Next.

Pattern completely reshuffles after this storm passes, much more fall like. It'll feel quite drastic compared to what we've been used to. Troughing will still compete with WAR though, meaning we should see several rain chances. Would not be surprised to see heavier rainfall amounts with Michael's remnants.

Models already backing off the extent of the cool down and warm things up pretty quickly afterwards.

I don't buy how slow the Euro is with him, typical bias me thinks. I'd give the speed edge to the Gfs, intensity is actually quite similar on both models for landfall.

The one year that would scream monster snow season he's forecasting to be a ratter. Imagine the forecast for less than stellar analogs, I'm guessing it would show blowtorch and 11/12 type snows. It's just as bad as AccuWeather's useless winter forecast.

Agree, thinking models who take him more ENE are breaking the Eastern ridging too quickly. It'll be a fast mover after landfall and it may still be a moderate TS as it moves over or near us.