SnoSki14

It's a nice little system but nothing too crazy until eastern CNE/NNE. Still it's a decent rain event with some gusty winds. I don't see any blocking so this thing should be speeding through quickly.

Don is showing the reality that the upcoming winter will likely be warm. A warm, dry Oct/Nov is 2001/2011 in a nutshell and it's been a while since we had a truly warm, snowless winter. Even the past few warm winters weren't that bad in the snowfall department. I for one wouldn't mind a nice, warm snow free winter. No traffic headaches, no shoveling/ice issues, 60s during the day, sounds pretty good imo.

That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely. This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan.

Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there. Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up.

If there's better luck than last year then it'll work out but you're playing with fire there. And I guess the Modoki Nino is pretty much useless given the Nina looking pattern the last 2 seasons. ENSO conditions, unless extreme, are becoming less relevant as the world warms.

Maybe another record temperature drop in the works. From 80s to 30s in late October.

Outside of tomorrow it looks fairly mild from now till Wednesday. Temps will be near 70 or better, lows in the upper 40s/low 50s. It'll get cool for like 2 days before the next big warm surge. Big bust this week.

Dodged the rains to my west and east. Chilly & breezy though at only 54F. Those 70s this weekend will feel nice.

It's very mild despite what people think. In years past we'd frequently see 30s to low 40s by now even near the city and we can't even drop below 50. And we're lucky to be just north enough to avoid the torrid heat the Mid-Atlantic has experienced for months. The cold is out west and the east is mild, it's been that way for a few years now and I don't see that changing with a raging Pacific jet pattern.

Looking forward to the toasty weather past mid October, we should see widespread 70s and even 80s for some. I do think November turns much colder though, the last several years have had colder Novembers along with March.

EPS looked quite strong and N though, wouldn't be surprised to see models shift further NW today. Regardless it looks like a cool, dreary and breezy period especially Wed-Fri. Should see, at minimum, some moderate coastal impacts due to prolonged onshore flow.

Given the strength of the block, the storm should get nudged closer to the coast over time. Euro will be interesting.

Laughable how different this run is vs yesterday. Must be all those nutty teleconnection shifts.

Didn't take long to get back into the 80s, 82 right now.

If it's AN then it's probably correct. Maybe we aren't done with 90s after all. How incredible would that be to see past mid October.