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SnoSki14

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  1. The last few days will put a damper on the warmest October ever. I think we'll finish between +5.5 and 6.
  2. The pattern change to end the month is looking pretty legit now. I still don't know if it's transient or not but given our tendency to lock in patterns for extended periods, it could very well last into November.
  3. Euro shows more storminess towards the end of the run, hopefully we'll get something out of it.
  4. Gfs trending stronger with the cool-down although it looks transient as of now.
  5. Models are a bit more aggressive on the late October cool down around the 25th. If this continues then NYC may drop below 40 right at the end of the month. However this is a 9-10 day forecast so a lot can change.
  6. It's all relative to the time of year and if we had those departures in summer we'd be talking highs in the upper 90s/lows in the mid 70s. Getting 80s this late would shatter records and it's just not physically possible without extreme conditions. That being said I have no problem with the warm weather this week because luckily it's mid-late October not summer.
  7. If this "colder blast" is weak or doesn't come until later then we'll beat the record.
  8. We should easily beat 2007 pending any massive cool down. I don't buy the severity of the late October cool down and we torch this weekend through next weekend minus Mon-Tue.
  9. What what a furnace on the gfs. This weekend will torch, they'll be a brief cool down Mon-Tue and then we torch the rest of the week through next weekend. I don't buy a late October cool down, this month will beat 2007.
  10. Wow if the Euro is correct we could see widespread record breaking highs next weekend.
  11. However you slice it they'll be plenty more warmth to come, we may see longer cooler interludes than the last few weeks, but a lot of that has to do with natural seasonal progression. We won't see a more permanent change until the pattern changes, which would fall around the seasonal transition to winter.
  12. I can deal with warm weather but dews in the mid 70s on Oct 9/10 is ridiculous, I don't remember it feeling this muggy all summer.
  13. I agree that cold is overrated but if you want snow then we can't cross our fingers every winter and hope we get lucky again. Our luck last winter was remarkable and it won't last. I'm encouraged by the Euro monthlies that show us maybe grabbing one decent month, December, this winter. It may not be much but I'll take what I can get at this point. Hopefully the pattern is on a three month cycle and we revert back to the summer pattern in time for winter.
  14. Well then you can kiss winter goodbye, a torch Oct/Nov is a winter killer. Enjoy the 60s/70 in Dec-Feb.
  15. Now I'm thinking we'll probably go straight from summer to winter as this pattern probably won't change until there's a seasonal shift.