SnoSki14

Gfs was clearly trending towards Euro/CMC but then it shredded the system apart.

Looks like a Miller-B/SWFE hybrid. The primary could get pretty far north but we'll have a nice airmass in place and plenty of blocking nearby. I doubt suppression will be an issue with such a strong west trough. In fact if blocking ends up weaker we'll run the risk of mix/rain however the block is much stronger than mid Dec.

A deep western trough will constructively interfere with a strong NAO blocking regime. This is not 2010. There will be ample resistance to the blocking which could benefit us.

We also have a strong western trough which will definitely try to pump the SE ridge. This could be a perfect squeeze play but not a lot of room for error.

The models ramming the block are going to be wrong. I see Miller B or SWFE. Caveats apply this far out.

The cold could be pretty prolonged once it gets here. -EPO will deliver the cold and blocking stays put. I don't trust models breaking down EPO so quickly given the PV will continue to be attacked into early Feb. February will look substantially different this winter than last couple years and yes eventually we will score. February is the snowiest month for a reason.

Hopefully we can sneak in a couple small events. Nothing worse than cold & dry.

Meanwhile Madrid & parts of Europe are getting hammered.

Could end up very PDII-ish by the 20th. SE ridge gets a bit stronger but stout -NAO remains with cross-polar flow possible. Could set the stage for a widespread overrunner to coastal type event near the 20th. I see 4 chances with one on the 8th (long shot but still worth monitoring), the 12/13th (mixed look on models w/better PNA than 8th), the 15/16th (good PNA/atlantic blocking w/arctic air coming south - could see something like Jan 2005), and then 18-20th.

It's pretty clear that the 1st half of Jan wouldn't be the best however there'd still be opportunities to score. The 2nd half is filled with potential due to vastly improved pacific drilling in colder air. EPO/PNA improves, AO/NAO stay negative though not so negative as to lead to an 09/10 suppression pattern. Normally this would start to break down in Feb in a Nina pattern but the SSW and the atypical Nina atmosphere could easily drag this out further. Remember how atypical Febs have been in what should've been ideal west-based Nino patterns.

This is a darn good snow pattern coming up. It's not very cold but cold enough however by mid Jan the west pops a PNA and EPO region improves significantly likely allowing some arctic air to pour south.

In Dec 2010 it took a while before the pattern produced. I'm getting ready to sell the 8th system. Does not look good upstream and models are trending away from a hit.

Dec 2010 El Nino?

I'll take my chances 6 days out. Remember Albany was supposed to whiff with December storm and they got blasted. I would not wanna be in the jackpot 6 days out.

Some serious potential with this one. All models have some type of storm for this time period. It reminds me of past snowstorms where the models showed potential several days out and came together as we got closer. The AO/NAO will reach their most negative numbers around this time as well.