SnoSki14

Agree, very concise and measured posts that can calm any weenie getting ready to jump.

It wouldn't be the first time that a seasonal forecast busts though it's been a long time since it busted in a negative direction.

It will turn around eventually, Decembers have been rough as of late though. March, not Morch, on the other hand has been roaring lately.

In no way shape or form will this season be remotely the same as 97/98 aka the strongest Nino on record. Current atmospheric state still resembles a Nina.

I do think AGW has something to do with the broader forcing. A Nino with a positive SOI in December has never occurred according to Bluewave. It's screwing with the models and the average pattern. I think the Nino status quo will eventually win out though it's hard to know for sure. I hope the Gfs has a clue about that cutter next week, wouldn't mind seeing a potent system.

Sounds pretty reasonable, pattern looks mostly unfavorable until then. All signs point to another short but intense winter. We'll probably see 95% of our snowfall between Jan 20 and Feb 20.

It could help us out with the next wave for Xmas/Eve actually. A strong cutter can often reshuffle the pattern.

Nice raging cutter on the Gfs on the 21-22nd.

I hope the wait isn't that long because then we'll only have a month or so for winter to deliver. And I highly doubt a 14/15 replica will be walking through those doors again.

Bad luck then? The pattern has clearly been great for our southern neighbors. Regardless the real fun will start in about a month or so, but maybe something can sneak in before that. 24-26 window looks like the region's best shot, GEFS shows eastern ridging beyond that and into Jan.

Gfs now joins the Euro with the cutter for next week. There's not a lot of positive signs out there, and I don't think we'll be seeing much of a winter pattern for a long time. If this winter follows 14/15 or 02/03 then it's likely that it won't return until mid January.

Euro and Gfs couldn't be more different for next week.

Very odd, SOI continues to climb too. If it's not a Nina then it's at least La Nada.

Any thoughts on the JAMSTEC, it torches the entire US along with the CFS.

That's disappointing, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if all our snows come in a month (Feb this year), that's been the theme lately.