SnoSki14

Not looking forward to the cold midweek. That's a potent though thankfully brief shot of arctic air. Highs in the mid 20s with lows in the mid to low teens look likely.

I'd rather have rain than ice.

Yeah my biggest concern is FRZA. Surface cold looks to hold around 28-31F for a long time before warming. Those just N&W could be in for a miserable travel day.

A fast Pacific flow + extreme blocking is one of the best results a la 2010/2011 but that's a very rare combination. In almost every other instance you'd want a more favorable Pacific over the Atlantic. Even the worst Atlantic pattern can be saved by a good Pacific.

Usually these trend north last minute but that's a pretty steep AO/NAO drop being depicted so it could actually trend south/colder as we get closer.

Gonna have to watch that closely. I think ice is a much bigger concern obviously as surface temps will be very slow to warm.

The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.

GFS showing more front end snows next week. Surface cold is quite strong.

Nam showing 2.5-4" amounts in eastern sections. The train of Pacific driven storms seems endless this month.

And the Euro washes any hope away.

That's a shame, but I guess the last rainstorm really cleared you guys out.

EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other.

If I had a dollar for every fantasy blizzard... Do not go beyond 4-5 days in this pattern. Next week is still a toss up. If blocking ends up stronger then it'll hold the 50/50 in place and we'd get a good front end hit. Seems possible with AO trending downward.

If blocking does trend stronger than next week's system will act more like a SWFE. GFS trending in that direction now. The MJO failing to enter warmer phases has helped in that regard. However it won't take much for the system to cut and that's what I still favor atm.

If you like a lot of winter rain then this is the pattern for you. I suppose there's a chance the weekend storm acts as a 50/50 for the following system but there's no block around to hold the 50/50 in place so tough luck.