SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Ensembles are very mild mid month. I expect 60s
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Pretty much though many would still like to see some wintry weather for the holidays.
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Maybe but there's a tendency to rush things and there's an MJO lag to take into consideration. We're actually kinda similar to 2015 but the blocking will prevent another Dec 2015 style warm anomaly. January could be good.
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Don't tell that to the New England forum
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Doesn't look that deep to me and we've had plenty of winter months with strong Atlantic blocking with meh conditions out west that still delivered. PNA reading is positive actually Block location isn't bad either. Last December the block was too far south for us.
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Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live. There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking. What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic than last winter if that helps.
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Thank god for blocking or it would be near 70 today
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Many posters in the New England forum say last Dec was just bad luck despite the huge block but there was more to it than that.
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We had a huge block and record -AO where we would've cashed in every time but didn't. We're getting blocking now and it's in the 50s today. These blocks are no longer paying dividends like they used to. The PV is also shrinking and it's allowing strong Atlantic blocking to get negated too if not merging with the SE ridge Posters like Raindance & Bluewave have been absolutely crushing it in their analysis over the past few years and I have no reason to doubt them.
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What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year. The -PDO is not encouraging Bluewave would definitely call you out on it.
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We definitely took years like 13/14 & 14/15 for granted. I'd give anything for that type of Pacific look
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Well we're starting off December hear near 60 for Saturday and several days of 50s so I'd say the warmth wins out bigly. Not Dec 2015 type warmth mind you but plenty warm.
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At least we have the memories of December snowstorms.
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Imagine another near 0" snowfall winter. That would be a wake up call for many that something is very wrong climate wise.
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And he's been right every time. I'm not going against that or raindancewx. They've been killing it.
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Better hope you capitalize. Everything looks like garbage after. Pacific looks horrible
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That relentless Pacific jet is a killer. Every time we see western ridging try to set up it gets knocked down immediately. It's hard to get excited when that keeps happening but there's always a chance we can time things right occasionally. I do think they'll be more opportunities than last winter but talk about a low bar
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Shocking. It's warm, cold and repeat. Impossible to sustain any western ridging under this pattern. Pacific looks like crap yet again
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People don't want to hear the truth. Raindancewx has been on a roll too, and if it helps, he's much more optimistic this year than last for us.
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Get ready for 4 months of March again. Mild & wet winter Can't get optimistic about anything unless the Pacific changes.
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I expect this to get pushed back or more troughing out west to show up. You can't escape that -PDO and Nina background state
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First 10 days of December looking quite mild. 50s for highs and likely above freezing lows. Greenland block delivering
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For the last decade November has been the only month that has averaged near to below normal. Every other month has torched especially the winter months. So what agenda is that?
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Here's what the -NAO gets you with an ugly Pacific
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Yes thank you. Fool me once.... Unless I see a ridge out west then this pattern is worthless. It'll just be a colder rain.
