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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. I don't think we'll see much wind with this. The trend has clearly been east with the low. If you're looking for wind then Friday's storm could be a better bet. Strong gradient with a south'easter type system. We could easily see 40-50mph gusts with that.
  2. Backs in all the way from Nantucket. Doesn't really weaken till it nears NJ coast. Lots of tree damage if correct. The preceding rains will weaken soils.
  3. I think we are due for some cooler weather even taking AGW into account. The positive numbers have been so off the charts that a correction seems likely. Noticed models are trending stronger with early November cool shot. Could very well end the growing season for many.
  4. Gradually increasing amounts. Widespread 4-6" totals looking likely with isolated 8"+ amounts. I'm seeing a double barreled low with one low on the coast and a second SE of LI. Eventually the two merge what is why the eastern low loops west to just off the NJ coast. Wind impacts could come from the initial low on the coast and from the subtropical like storm that retros. You can really see the LLJ increase on the HRRR. LI is going to get whacked. I definitely could see them getting near hurricane force gusts
  5. Models can't figure out if there'll be two lows or one main low. Regardless it looks like a heavy rain event with gusty winds is likely. But like the NWS said it's a very low confidence forecast meaning things could end up worse than expected.
  6. Yikes at that Nam run. Very strong winds too. Breaks the inversion hence the much warmer temperatures this run for Tuesday. Also matches Euro/EPS If trends continue it's gonna get ugly.
  7. As far as damage goes I'm actually more concerned about the Friday system. That's a deep anomaly and a strong gradient that's been trending stronger on the ensembles.
  8. You think this could tuck more SW or just S or even SE from its current position. Because a SW tuck would be very bad for LI into NYC.
  9. Gonna have to watch to see if this backs in more. As it shows now it would be an impressive storm with 3-5" totals. Very strong winds for the coast.
  10. If it's a subtropical or tropical system it's gonna get captured and forced further west. We really won't have an answer until tomorrow afternoon the earliest and possibly not until the event begins.
  11. You just need a short blocking interval nowadays to get a 20-40" blizzard.
  12. I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal.
  13. I'm not convinced the heaviest amounts are to the NE. Gfs placing heaviest rains near our area and Nam trending that way too. I also think the storm will tuck in a lot more as we get closer just like our winter storms have done. The following storm does look to carry most of the winds though. Will be a problem given heavy rains preceding it and the late start to foliage season.
  14. Wow very impressive Nam run. Storm explodes right off the coast and if the trends of the last few years are any indication then that low could be tucked further west.
  15. Things are gonna get a lot more active next week. Big south'easter possible just before Halloween. Lots of cooler, easterly flow though we do warm sector Monday hard. Think 80F to 50F type transition possible Monday-Tuesday.
  16. Well it's been July like since July so I hope eventually there's some climo. Warmest fall on record for most places in the northeast through today.
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