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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. Probably not wise to assume anything in today's climate. Not all Nina's behave the same. So far this month isn't acting like a Nina October
  2. Looks like 4-5" amounts here which won't completely wipe out the deficit but it's pretty close.
  3. Yeah I agree, an El Nino pattern with an active southern jet this is not. I'd be willing to bet the default Nina state will also try to come back.
  4. Last October was so ridiculously warm as have the last several Octobers that this cool period really stands out Ensembles not showing any big warm periods either due to Pacific based blocking. Early thinking is it'll be close to 2018/2015 as 2009 seems a bit of a stretch.
  5. HRRR & radar suggest rain becomes more scattered soon and I think we're done with the heaviest stuff. But I think we can scrape another half inch before everything ends
  6. We used to get these cool October days years ago but lately its been in the 80s and 90s with record warm Octobers The cool stretch is even more notable given how dry/hot the summer has been. But it's more of an anomalous cool pocket in an otherwise warm regime.
  7. Temperatures barely breaking out if the 40s as well. Been raining most of the day with a lot more to come. If Euro is correct a lot of our deficits could be wiped out.
  8. Plenty of mild weather coming up after this. Thursday & Friday look excellent with low to mid 70s, weekend is cool but mid next week looks pretty mild at first glance.
  9. I'm only liking this weather for the drought busting capabilities. Looks like we'll be able to salvage a foliage season too after a bleak outlook in early September.
  10. Right at the northern edge of the rain for the past couple hours. If Tuesday works out I could see over 3" easily
  11. Nice event. Well over an inch of rain, hopefully the Euro is right about Tuesday.
  12. With death toll already over 70 I do expect a number between 100-200 total. Damage probably from 60-80 billion though higher numbers wouldn't shock me.
  13. I'll take any rain we can get, we're still in a moderate drought
  14. That is not true at all. My area near New Brunswick hit 100 multiple days New Brunswick and Monmouth (BLM) both officially hit 100 at least once
  15. Well it was still a bit above normal and that's against the warmer norms however the 2nd half was solidly BN.
  16. It's been a very long time since October started this cool, I'm used to seeing 80s every time. On that note we probably will see 80 pre cold front Friday
  17. Stinks that the good stuff will likely be offshore.
  18. Zero, high moving in and trough lifting out. SC/NC landfall guaranteed
  19. Widespread 2-3" would be great. Crappy timing but it is what it is
  20. Correct, the hybrid definition fits since it's also entangled in the trough and lacks a core. I do think if it had a couple days it might try to rebuild a core. It will try though hence the models intensifying it before landfall.
  21. Yeah the surge will be a problem for a big chunk of real estate. I wonder if people are that concerned though since it'll only be a Cat 1.
  22. The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of.
  23. It's 100% correct which is why everyone's so triggered. They don't want to face that reality. But my pushback is that storms like this have happened before so any isolated event needs to be looked at carefully and not lumped into a broader narrative. I think it's honestly more concerning that people continue to build heavily in obvious death trap regions like Cape Coral. How is that crap even legal.
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