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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The stuff by state college could eventually get here in a weakened state later this evening otherwise things look tame for eastern sections. Flood outlook did a good job at highlighting eastern PA, central west and NW Jersey. Anyone east of 287 and south of 78 won't get much
  2. SnoSki14
    Looks like everything will be too far west. NW NJ looks like the spot to be
  3. SnoSki14
    If you have a strong closed low with PWATs above 2" in late July then someone's gonna see a ton of rain. Given the rains we've had this month I see a flood risk upgrade to moderate for Tuesday
  4. SnoSki14
    A Nino is just one piece of the pie. Sure it may affect other pieces but it's still a separate entity. And in today's changing climate the signals are more muddled.
  5. SnoSki14
    No apparently summer is basically over just like how some said cool weather was here to stay in mid June. Ensembles clearly show more hot weather as August arrives and I wouldn't rule out more 100+ readings
  6. SnoSki14
    Strong Ninos are supposed to have cool summers and we'll be near normal at best
  7. SnoSki14
    We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline.
  8. SnoSki14
    If you mean no more 100s then most likely but it's only July 23. Heat will likely return sometime in August
  9. SnoSki14
    Looks like an overall great stretch of weather coming up. Near normal temps, pleasant nights and mornings with lower dews. Drier weather
  10. SnoSki14
    What is this the midwest!
  11. SnoSki14
    It's been quiet south of 78 but we're getting sun now and lots of clearing so kinda worried about later
  12. SnoSki14
    Atmosphere is a lot more unstable vs the weekend. Severe potential is a lot higher later
  13. SnoSki14
    Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot.
  14. SnoSki14
    We're top 5 warmest from june 1 through July 15 or half of met summer. The hot stretches have been record breaking and the smoke didn't help either. After a cooler spell in late July all signs point to a lot more record heat for early August. Humans are like goldfish when it comes to weather though
  15. SnoSki14
    Major hurricanes can still happen if conditions are right aka Andrew in 92. Models are more bullish with this now too.
  16. SnoSki14
    Too many variables, too many different areas of forcing, PDO signal is a total mismatch from a super Nino. Climo is out the window
  17. SnoSki14
    It's been top 5 hottest June 1 through July 15 period with mostly ridging in the east. Only now are troughs being introduced.
  18. SnoSki14
    The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino.
  19. SnoSki14
    Just like I thought. Limited severe threat. We needed those hours of peak clear skies surface heating. At least the storms with the warm front were pretty good
  20. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's where the biggest threat would be. No surprise here they are the tornado capital of the northeast
  21. SnoSki14
    It's toast for this region. It's already nearly 2pm
  22. SnoSki14
    Flood threat is very real. Our atmosphere is juiced to the max
  23. SnoSki14
    Agreed. I'm ok with not seeing tornadoes either. Shear is very high and dynamics would be enough for a significant tornado threat for our area if we had the instability to back it up.
  24. SnoSki14
    I've seen how these events play out time and time again. We almost always need surface heating for several hours to generate a severe threat. The dynamics can overcome this to some degree but it won't be enough
  25. SnoSki14
    I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of.
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