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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite.
  2. SnoSki14
    It's looping around. Start of the turn north to NNE
  3. SnoSki14
    I wonder if Melissa shifting a bit more NW is helping to amp those totals too via tropical enhancement or some kind of PRE
  4. SnoSki14
    Additionally with the storm making landfall in W Jamaica that'll probably cause even greater rainfall and orographic lift on its east side, not to mention the entire island gets 20"+ amounts. NE movement ideal for surge too
  5. SnoSki14
    That's usually an indication of a sharp turn coming shortly. I expect a N to even NNE turn soon.
  6. SnoSki14
    A north to NNE turn will commence very shortly. There's no ridging left to keep this moving west. Tourist heavy Montego Bay will likely get eastern eyewall
  7. SnoSki14
    Just looking at radar and satellite you'd think this monster would harmlessly bypass Jamaica to the south. They would need a miracle now
  8. SnoSki14
    It looks as good as it ever has. Very cold cloud tops now rotating around core. I would be shocked if we didn't have a Cat 5 by morning.
  9. SnoSki14
    Model consensus is sold on it moving NNE into western Jamaica. These wobbles aren't uncommon and will correct themselves.
  10. SnoSki14
    Satellite presentation alone would suggest a near cat 5 now. Very impressive
  11. SnoSki14
    They found them.
  12. SnoSki14
    I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here.
  13. SnoSki14
    That does play a role. Model performance has been very inconsistent and poor lately
  14. SnoSki14
    Euro looked to be trending towards Canadian though. GFS has performed poorly overall with Melissa
  15. SnoSki14
    At best some moisture will be pulled in. There's no big block to the NE to prevent this from going OTS. But a strong closed low could pull it further west as it departs thus pulling in moisture
  16. SnoSki14
    Hopefully it's not too much at once though. All or nothing patterns are becoming common
  17. SnoSki14
    Icon and Canadian also ramped up. Still out there but the potential for something significant is there. We still have no idea what role Melissa's will play but Canadian heavily entrains part of her energy in
  18. SnoSki14
    Some loaded new runs coming out. A west track would not be good. More strong winds, erosion and moderate to major coastal flooding
  19. SnoSki14
    Yeah very complex setup. The Canadian has a lot more entrainment from Melissa, which would yield a much more significant system for us. No clue how any of this will evolve yet
  20. SnoSki14
    With the slow motion and insane rainfall amounts we could be looking at a humanitarian disaster for Jamaica.
  21. SnoSki14
    Regular Euro showing a classic east coastal storm. Would be nice to see this type of pattern come back. Melissa stays south so no entrainment.
  22. SnoSki14
    Lots of potential but extreme uncertainty. Crazy run to run differences. 18z GFS with a strong low
  23. SnoSki14
    Hard to get cold when the world including North America is on fire. Looks close to normal, which at this point is considered freezing
  24. SnoSki14
    Of course he blocked you when presented with evidence. These far right cranks are all cowards. When anyone challenges them they either scream "fake news" or ignore you entirely. But hey there's plenty of stupid, ignorant people out there (look at who voted in our current joke administration) that'll continue to follow and support him.
  25. SnoSki14
    Potential for a big storm is there late month. Lots of blocking plus hurricane activity
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