Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,410

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Some potent stuff showing up on models actually. 3"+ amounts locally. Severe maybe?
  2. SnoSki14
    I hate the cold, dark mornings so yes it's fine. Can't imagine it still being dark at 8-830.
  3. SnoSki14
    Feels like mid November. Cool & cloudy, only 53F right now
  4. SnoSki14
    Again the rain will be the story. Core of strongest winds will impact a small area.
  5. SnoSki14
    Final intensification burst tonight. About to go sub 900mbs One of the craziest satellite images I've ever seen in the Atlantic
  6. SnoSki14
    Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite.
  7. SnoSki14
    It's looping around. Start of the turn north to NNE
  8. SnoSki14
    I wonder if Melissa shifting a bit more NW is helping to amp those totals too via tropical enhancement or some kind of PRE
  9. SnoSki14
    Additionally with the storm making landfall in W Jamaica that'll probably cause even greater rainfall and orographic lift on its east side, not to mention the entire island gets 20"+ amounts. NE movement ideal for surge too
  10. SnoSki14
    That's usually an indication of a sharp turn coming shortly. I expect a N to even NNE turn soon.
  11. SnoSki14
    A north to NNE turn will commence very shortly. There's no ridging left to keep this moving west. Tourist heavy Montego Bay will likely get eastern eyewall
  12. SnoSki14
    Just looking at radar and satellite you'd think this monster would harmlessly bypass Jamaica to the south. They would need a miracle now
  13. SnoSki14
    It looks as good as it ever has. Very cold cloud tops now rotating around core. I would be shocked if we didn't have a Cat 5 by morning.
  14. SnoSki14
    Model consensus is sold on it moving NNE into western Jamaica. These wobbles aren't uncommon and will correct themselves.
  15. SnoSki14
    Satellite presentation alone would suggest a near cat 5 now. Very impressive
  16. SnoSki14
    They found them.
  17. SnoSki14
    I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here.
  18. SnoSki14
    That does play a role. Model performance has been very inconsistent and poor lately
  19. SnoSki14
    Euro looked to be trending towards Canadian though. GFS has performed poorly overall with Melissa
  20. SnoSki14
    At best some moisture will be pulled in. There's no big block to the NE to prevent this from going OTS. But a strong closed low could pull it further west as it departs thus pulling in moisture
  21. SnoSki14
    Hopefully it's not too much at once though. All or nothing patterns are becoming common
  22. SnoSki14
    Icon and Canadian also ramped up. Still out there but the potential for something significant is there. We still have no idea what role Melissa's will play but Canadian heavily entrains part of her energy in
  23. SnoSki14
    Some loaded new runs coming out. A west track would not be good. More strong winds, erosion and moderate to major coastal flooding
  24. SnoSki14
    Yeah very complex setup. The Canadian has a lot more entrainment from Melissa, which would yield a much more significant system for us. No clue how any of this will evolve yet
  25. SnoSki14
    With the slow motion and insane rainfall amounts we could be looking at a humanitarian disaster for Jamaica.
×
×
  • Create New...