SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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What amounts did the RAP show?
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I'm from the county and the 18-25 was way too high. Much more reasonable now
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Banding almost always ends up further NW than forecast. Unless you're in NE PA or something we're in great shape
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Stop looking at models except HRRR. Start looking at radar. The storm is happening now.
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Radar looks good to me. Temps ticking down slowly.
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We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy.
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Again ratios for a good 6-8hrs will likely be higher than 10:1 I'm playing it conservative but trust the NWS too. This is one instance where an overperformance wouldn't surprise me. How often do we see a 970mb low inside the BM.
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The light precip and rain/mix for most will continue until around 4PM and then temps crash after that when the real storm arrives. Using the HRRR mostly from this point on.
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One caveat is that ratios at the height of the storm could be closer to 12:1 vs 10:1 These CCB setups under intense coastals can really deliver the goods.
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Every storm people panic day of. It's like clockwork. Oh it's starting as rain, oh it's too warm, oh it's too dry, amounts are too light, models are ticking east/west, it's not snowing yet, etc. And 90 percent of the time it's nonsense and means nothing.
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It'll be there but the caveat is an inverted trough will be in place which could enhance totals on the western flank and lead to much less sharper cutoffs than we'd normally see. In addition I expect the strongest banding to be NW of where models have them as is almost always thr case.
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Well if you keep going with the warmest winter and the least snowiest solution every time you'll eventually end up right.
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They usually end up further NW than forecast
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Images?
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Isn't that one of the top analogs for this system?
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Yes. The storm is developing as we speak.
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Rgem sucks ass
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Does my sick weenie mind still want it to verify...absolutely
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I'm gonna try to be objective from a normie perspective but the amount of damage that would occur from the NAM verifying would be extreme. We're talking major coastal flooding, major power outages, a shutdown for days. Something out of this world.
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I agree. HRRR has ticked up max amounts vs 18z. Really maximizes impacts over our region. SNE gets the occluded version
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Globals don't matter much this close. Now it's about the short term models. The RAP, the HRRR, the NAM, even the SREFS.
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Mesos ramping up which is good
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Switching to mesos soon. That's where the real intricacies will lie. An explosive storm like this will want to tuck further west. Nam might be closer than we think
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Feels like the type of system where amounts will keep going up until game time
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HRRR has like 6+ hours of legit blizzard conditions for everyone very far inland. So crazy if that verifies.
