SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I'll think it'll warm up but ridging stays west and we'll be more prone to BDCFs. The month doesn't scream torch to me
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GEFS catching up to EPS MJO moving into phase 8. Trough could trend stronger though without any blocking may be transient.
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It's a short cool window. With AO staying positive, cool downs can't last
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Next week will feel like a different world until reality comes back of course
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Ends Sunday
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-AO for sure, NAO I'm not as concerned about. What would be helpful is a list of all 4"+ NYC March-April storms and which teleconnections were present to get a better idea of what you'd need for late season snow.
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There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season
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Oh it's definitely happening. Records will be shattered
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Based off a LR OP run?
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Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS
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Next week especially midweek does look record warm. Is that exaggerated, perhaps but down in Jersey we saw 80F in Feb 2018 so it's definitely on the table. 80s to snow?
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The problem is the PV is on our side of the world so it wouldn't take much for cold air to seep south. March is very fickle. We could touch 80+ and see snow a week later. We actually did that in 2018 when Feb saw 80 and then we know what happened next. I'm not saying we're getting snowstorms but the window hasn't completely closed.
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It's mostly torchy. It'll cool off at times but signal is very warm. There's no 2018 style comeback coming
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Huge differences in the shaded vs sun zones here. Shaded spots still have several inches while sun spots it's mostly grass.
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Surprised 02-03 isn't in the top 20. It definitely is for the New Brunswick area.
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And it wasn't even that warm. Plus no rain either. Just the power of the sun
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It's possible but I'd be surprised if April is warm, maybe by us near NYC but not further north.
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Yeah I wouldn't doubt a repeat of winter in the east. These patterns can lock in for a long time.
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Take a look at the 5 day EPS anomalies. Massive blowtorch signal. 2012 type stuff Anyone that thinks it's just a 1-2 day warmup is fooling themselves That being said. I do think it'll turn a lot colder end of March especially the last week. I also think March will have the warmest anomalies of the year. April-May will be a lot colder and even BN
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If you think about how warm the west has been and we're getting this type of ridge here, it'll be much warmer than you expect. 80+ likely imo
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What a blowtorch coming up though. 70s likely
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It screams backdooring even down to Jersey.
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There's definitely a strong backdooring risk though. SSTs are very cold
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There's still a balance in play it's just that warmth will win out in most cases. And occasionally you get very anomalous events like the freezing temps in South Florida.
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Only a matter of time before this region sees that. The northeast has been mostly shielded from this.
