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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. Loving my 6-10" call from a few days ago. Obviously areas not far north will have more but looking good right now
  2. It's not an apples to apples comparison for us though though sure there's some reason to be skeptical of its output
  3. Yeah my area might get 2"+ of sleet accumulation on top of 5-6" of snow. That's a very big deal and temps stay several degrees below freezing Will be an absolute nightmare to deal with though. Clearing that stuff out will suck
  4. Definitely not. The combination of snow/sleet + cold temps are definitely warning criteria. In many ways the ice component will make this worse than a standard 1 foot snowstorm
  5. Yeah I'm leaning lower. I think ratios and thump still gets us several inches but it's clearly trending less and less. Under 6" honestly wouldn't surprise me now
  6. If you're a fan of long lasting snow cover then sleet will encase the snow and it's gonna last a long time
  7. I think pretty much everyone will see 7-8" with the thump. The wall of snow to sleet idea is playing out as expected. Now it's just about timing. The longer we hold off the transition, the more snow we get. Even a 2-3 hr delay could mean the difference between 7" and 10"+
  8. 6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models
  9. Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess 6z HRRR showing that crazy front end dump. Big improvement over 0z
  10. I'll give what it shows tomorrow a lot more weight than tonight but it's great at picking up warm layers so we can't discount it
  11. Yeah so much for suppression fears Trough out west was a big red flag for this.
  12. I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam.
  13. Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol
  14. Yeah the pattern actually gets a lot better after our next storm. In fact the current pattern ain't that great, there's way too much troughiness out west (no wonder we're mixing) Kind of a miracle if we do get 8-10"+ amounts out of it
  15. Out of curiosity does anyone have sleet/ZR totals from the Nam. Curious to see the ice outputs
  16. The ridge placement out west for this storm wasn't ideal. MJO wasn't ideal either. There's a reason why big snowstorms are a rare commodity here especially in the CC era. Good news is pattern actually gets better after this storm. Better PNA and more favorable MJO
  17. It's good for verifying mixing but only in the short range. It's not reliable beyond 36hrs
  18. I hope Nam is wrong because this will be a nasty ice event here. Surface temps aren't budging away from the coast and will probably verify colder than models show.
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