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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Bad luck doesn't cause the coastal track to go dormant for years. Definitely the forcing though with those record ssts over the west Pacific
  2. SnoSki14
    Kind of a paradox that fast flow due to CC can lead to more snow down south vs northeast...as long as the cold is available of course
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah but what are the precip forecasts because its been bone dry outside of that big storm.
  4. SnoSki14
    Right I thought 2015 was coming through the door. Now it's cold and dry? Wth
  5. SnoSki14
    He said "prime" season so he's correct. And our March snows have been few and far between lately but I feel better than usual about our chances this year.
  6. SnoSki14
    The first 2/3 of 10-11 were truly special. Another month and it would've blown every other winter out the water
  7. SnoSki14
    I shudder to think what'll happen once the pendulum swings, hopefully it's not in the summer.
  8. SnoSki14
    Based on the weeklies this snowpack could last til March. And this doesn't account for added snowfall that we'll likely see in Feb. This is a rare deep winter and these patterns nowadays get stuck in place for months. This pattern stems from November. Also it wouldn't surprise me to see March delivering big this year.
  9. SnoSki14
    Something will pop eventually but yes it could be cold/dry for a while. With tons of blocking and confluence our best bet is either clippers or SWFEs. Coastal haven't been our friend for a while With +PNA fading and -PNA being more favorable for us latter Feb that's where I think our next big threat will be. However keep an eye out on the 6-12th still because a lot can shift
  10. SnoSki14
    Classic large +PNA spike with diving shortwave later next week and a probable Miller B transfer. Feeling good about the 6th, much more so than this weekend's disaster
  11. SnoSki14
    I like the 6th. Really strong ridge pops out west at that time. Diving shortwave to Miller B transfer perhaps?
  12. SnoSki14
    Flow is too fast thanks to CC as Tip explained
  13. SnoSki14
    One of those could really dig and become a Miller B with the +PNA ridge still there.
  14. SnoSki14
    There's a follow up system that has more potential imo
  15. SnoSki14
    There's a follow up system that has a better chance to do something a few days later.
  16. SnoSki14
    Keep dreaming
  17. SnoSki14
    We need to see some serious jumps in models soon as time's ticking.
  18. SnoSki14
    A lot of northern stream disturbances and clippers likely. We should clean up
  19. SnoSki14
    Yeah it ain't happening
  20. SnoSki14
    I think 1st half is cold/dry though def not snow free but second half gets a lot more active with that blocking pattern + RNA
  21. SnoSki14
    I remember that storm like it was yesterday with the infamous "convective feedback" Heard it was one of the top analogs for the coming storm too.
  22. SnoSki14
    Guidance is showing several fast moving clippers coming through, maybe one or two amplifies and we get a moderate event otherwise probably 1-3" type stuff.
  23. SnoSki14
    Things would have to start trending today. Unfortunate if they don't because upcoming pattern looks mainly cold/dry with light northern stream systems only.
  24. SnoSki14
    GFS is best for these southern stream coastals but we need some major shifts soon or this threat is done
  25. SnoSki14
    Eh I'm not seeing a lot of positive trends. I'll give it another day to turn things around but it's occluding way too far south and too early. GFS does the best with southern stream system so I'll keep an eye out but we need to see some big moves soon.
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