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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    We're top 5 warmest from june 1 through July 15 or half of met summer. The hot stretches have been record breaking and the smoke didn't help either. After a cooler spell in late July all signs point to a lot more record heat for early August. Humans are like goldfish when it comes to weather though
  2. SnoSki14
    Major hurricanes can still happen if conditions are right aka Andrew in 92. Models are more bullish with this now too.
  3. SnoSki14
    Too many variables, too many different areas of forcing, PDO signal is a total mismatch from a super Nino. Climo is out the window
  4. SnoSki14
    It's been top 5 hottest June 1 through July 15 period with mostly ridging in the east. Only now are troughs being introduced.
  5. SnoSki14
    The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino.
  6. SnoSki14
    Just like I thought. Limited severe threat. We needed those hours of peak clear skies surface heating. At least the storms with the warm front were pretty good
  7. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's where the biggest threat would be. No surprise here they are the tornado capital of the northeast
  8. SnoSki14
    It's toast for this region. It's already nearly 2pm
  9. SnoSki14
    Flood threat is very real. Our atmosphere is juiced to the max
  10. SnoSki14
    Agreed. I'm ok with not seeing tornadoes either. Shear is very high and dynamics would be enough for a significant tornado threat for our area if we had the instability to back it up.
  11. SnoSki14
    I've seen how these events play out time and time again. We almost always need surface heating for several hours to generate a severe threat. The dynamics can overcome this to some degree but it won't be enough
  12. SnoSki14
    I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of.
  13. SnoSki14
    I personally think it won't be anything too significant. Lots of cloud cover in place. Destabilizing activity moving in now. Most enhanced or higher risks tend to disappoint for whatever reason
  14. SnoSki14
    Rare hatched tornado risk too.
  15. SnoSki14
    Strong shear, lapse rates and high dews could counteract the lack of sun here especially with the fronts being nearby.
  16. SnoSki14
    They are setting records with relatively moderate strength ridging. When/if one of those 600dm+ ridges parks over this area they will blow those margins away.
  17. SnoSki14
    Wow really, how pathetic
  18. SnoSki14
    Just a wall of smoke coming in from the north. Will undercut temps by several degrees tomorrow
  19. SnoSki14
    Nature is healing. Humans will extinguish themselves in 100 years or less and the Earth will thrive.
  20. SnoSki14
    In 2023 in NJ it was like the apocalypse arrived
  21. SnoSki14
    We're fortunate those 850s temps peak at night otherwise we would've seen another round of 105+ temps. All time state records would've been on the table.
  22. SnoSki14
    Catastrophic outcome if that were correct
  23. SnoSki14
    Winter could average +10F with one super KU that dumps 3-4' in this climate.
  24. SnoSki14
    We could touch 100F in warmest scenario. I think all this rain will help hold temps down next week. Peak heat will be over plains Either way we're probably going to see a top 3-5 hottest July on record
  25. SnoSki14
    You're not getting multiple 104-105s again. Gfs much more muted vs euro
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