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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Warmth isn't evenly distributed. Several LR models have the US as the coldest anomaly on earth while the rest of the planet torches. It all depends on where the ridges set up. Despite that you can never go wrong with saying it'll be an AN winter temperature wise in today's AGW era.
  2. SnoSki14
    It already has. NYC used to have their climate only a few decades ago. Now they have what we did.
  3. SnoSki14
    Yes
  4. SnoSki14
    Not behaving like any of the other strong Ninos so anyone thinking this winter will be a repeat of those strong Nino years needs to think twice
  5. SnoSki14
    Couple of MCS complexes look to move through. One in east PA will clip us over next couple hours with much more significant one in the evening
  6. SnoSki14
    It was wild earlier, looked like a microburst
  7. SnoSki14
    Strong Bermuda High pattern with very high dews. We may not see widespread rain but those that get hit will get hit hard.
  8. SnoSki14
    Well you're not getting a +PDO so I guess we'll all be tanning in mid January
  9. SnoSki14
    A +PDO coupled with a super Nino is just 97/98. A -PDO could cause deconstructive interference which makes the pattern much more variable.
  10. SnoSki14
    The 23/24 Nino was supposed to be very favorable for snows but it ended up being one the warmest/least snowiest. ENSO is still just one factor
  11. SnoSki14
    There's zero indication that the wet pattern will end. In fact the super Nino guarantees a stormy pattern.
  12. SnoSki14
    I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east.
  13. SnoSki14
    Looks more high dew type stuff than 95+ heat.
  14. SnoSki14
    Still nearly zilch near New Brunswick
  15. SnoSki14
    For an organized system like this I'm surprised it's not that widespread. I'll see what the stuff in PA does though
  16. SnoSki14
    I got the split in New Brunswick with storms to the N/W and now to the east. Happened yesterday too.
  17. SnoSki14
    Total miss in central NJ
  18. SnoSki14
    Yup will be a bust here. HRRR takes the stuff in central PA south of us too. What we need is a tropical system or remnants of one to get some major rains
  19. SnoSki14
    HRRR looks very dry outside of NW NJ
  20. SnoSki14
    The stuff by state college could eventually get here in a weakened state later this evening otherwise things look tame for eastern sections. Flood outlook did a good job at highlighting eastern PA, central west and NW Jersey. Anyone east of 287 and south of 78 won't get much
  21. SnoSki14
    Looks like everything will be too far west. NW NJ looks like the spot to be
  22. SnoSki14
    If you have a strong closed low with PWATs above 2" in late July then someone's gonna see a ton of rain. Given the rains we've had this month I see a flood risk upgrade to moderate for Tuesday
  23. SnoSki14
    A Nino is just one piece of the pie. Sure it may affect other pieces but it's still a separate entity. And in today's changing climate the signals are more muddled.
  24. SnoSki14
    No apparently summer is basically over just like how some said cool weather was here to stay in mid June. Ensembles clearly show more hot weather as August arrives and I wouldn't rule out more 100+ readings
  25. SnoSki14
    Strong Ninos are supposed to have cool summers and we'll be near normal at best
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