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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Loving my 6-10" call from a few days ago. Obviously areas not far north will have more but looking good right now
  2. SnoSki14
    Ratios will be high to start so I buy it.
  3. SnoSki14
    It's not an apples to apples comparison for us though though sure there's some reason to be skeptical of its output
  4. SnoSki14
    Yeah my area might get 2"+ of sleet accumulation on top of 5-6" of snow. That's a very big deal and temps stay several degrees below freezing Will be an absolute nightmare to deal with though. Clearing that stuff out will suck
  5. SnoSki14
    Definitely not. The combination of snow/sleet + cold temps are definitely warning criteria. In many ways the ice component will make this worse than a standard 1 foot snowstorm
  6. SnoSki14
    Nothing we can do.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'm leaning lower. I think ratios and thump still gets us several inches but it's clearly trending less and less. Under 6" honestly wouldn't surprise me now
  8. SnoSki14
    Nam is an icy disaster.
  9. SnoSki14
    If you're a fan of long lasting snow cover then sleet will encase the snow and it's gonna last a long time
  10. SnoSki14
    I think pretty much everyone will see 7-8" with the thump. The wall of snow to sleet idea is playing out as expected. Now it's just about timing. The longer we hold off the transition, the more snow we get. Even a 2-3 hr delay could mean the difference between 7" and 10"+
  11. SnoSki14
    6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models
  12. SnoSki14
    Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess 6z HRRR showing that crazy front end dump. Big improvement over 0z
  13. SnoSki14
    I'll give what it shows tomorrow a lot more weight than tonight but it's great at picking up warm layers so we can't discount it
  14. SnoSki14
    Yeah so much for suppression fears Trough out west was a big red flag for this.
  15. SnoSki14
    I can practically hear snowman19's giddiness after seeing the Nam.
  16. SnoSki14
    I guess we'll find out
  17. SnoSki14
    Epic bust if Nam is correct. Gives me in central NJ like 3" before going to sleet lol
  18. SnoSki14
    Thump looks better actually
  19. SnoSki14
    Really loving that early Feb period.
  20. SnoSki14
    Yeah the pattern actually gets a lot better after our next storm. In fact the current pattern ain't that great, there's way too much troughiness out west (no wonder we're mixing) Kind of a miracle if we do get 8-10"+ amounts out of it
  21. SnoSki14
    That's pretty darn good. What's the high end?
  22. SnoSki14
    Out of curiosity does anyone have sleet/ZR totals from the Nam. Curious to see the ice outputs
  23. SnoSki14
    The ridge placement out west for this storm wasn't ideal. MJO wasn't ideal either. There's a reason why big snowstorms are a rare commodity here especially in the CC era. Good news is pattern actually gets better after this storm. Better PNA and more favorable MJO
  24. SnoSki14
    It's good for verifying mixing but only in the short range. It's not reliable beyond 36hrs
  25. SnoSki14
    I hope Nam is wrong because this will be a nasty ice event here. Surface temps aren't budging away from the coast and will probably verify colder than models show.
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