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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly and Co are betting on high ratios to start for higher totals. If ratios do hit 15:1 then maybe.
  2. SnoSki14
    Is that snow + sleet since technically sleet counts for totals.
  3. SnoSki14
    I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm
  4. SnoSki14
    Agree 100% Rare possibility of more upside than downside I think. Also if precip falls hard enough near the transition zone that we could hold onto snow longer boosting amounts by 2-4"
  5. SnoSki14
    Sure would be nice for the GFS to score for once. GEFS also look great
  6. SnoSki14
    Yeah but every event is different. I'm going with wall of heavy snow to sleet and 6-10" region wide with locals 12+ Leaning on the colder side too. The scope and intensity of this airmass is much larger than what we're used to. It wouldn't surprise me to see models trend colder
  7. SnoSki14
    Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many.
  8. SnoSki14
    The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement.
  9. SnoSki14
    The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too.
  10. SnoSki14
    Yes but we do have an anchored and very strong Arctic high in place. Hence why highs will be in the teens on Sunday
  11. SnoSki14
    If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days.
  12. SnoSki14
    Several models hinting that coastal low lingers, if not strengthens somewhat and drops a few inches Monday
  13. SnoSki14
    And it over amplifies a lot
  14. SnoSki14
    Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model
  15. SnoSki14
    Is that mostly snow?
  16. SnoSki14
    I'm going with the wall of snow to sleet idea. We could easily accumulate 6-8+" over a few hours if it comes in fast and heavy. Heavy snowfall rates could also help keep mid levels colder so we hold onto snow longer until things lighten up enough where we fully go to sleet
  17. SnoSki14
    Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out.
  18. SnoSki14
    Yeah but 4-6" of snow plus 1-2" of pure sleet on top when temps are like 20F would still be quite bad.
  19. SnoSki14
    Nothing we can do about it. I really don't want inches of sleet though, that would really suck.
  20. SnoSki14
    Best GEFS yet. Much better than OP which was probably more fluky than anything. They usually send them out for most major, impactful systems and it helps refine forecasts and gives us more data which is always good but it won't have huge ramifications for this type of system. If we were talking a Boxing Day scenario where 50 miles in track made all the difference then sure.
  21. SnoSki14
    I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more.
  22. SnoSki14
    Love seeing the GFS more subdued. It usually means the most amped models are probably too amped and the correct solution is between the two. Euro/GFS AI look to be on the money right now
  23. SnoSki14
    This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12.
  24. SnoSki14
    From 3 to 34 here. Really looking forward to tomorrow's 50F
  25. SnoSki14
    Ugh the sleetstorm from hell
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