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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The warm start to each month has been interesting to say the least. Its been hot spell followed by a lot of rain/storms to cooler finish.
  2. SnoSki14
    It doesn't take much to dump a lot nowadays
  3. SnoSki14
    Latest HRRR dry slots most of that area
  4. SnoSki14
    Models consistently nail us later today. Watch for spin ups with warm front nearby
  5. SnoSki14
    Yes it definitely will
  6. SnoSki14
    It certainly wouldn't surprise me if the atmosphere and planet tried to establish an equilibrium after the Super Nino. With some data showing earth briefly getting to 2C in 2027 (which is crazy) a pullback is possible, if not likely.
  7. SnoSki14
    Warmth isn't evenly distributed. Several LR models have the US as the coldest anomaly on earth while the rest of the planet torches. It all depends on where the ridges set up. Despite that you can never go wrong with saying it'll be an AN winter temperature wise in today's AGW era.
  8. SnoSki14
    It already has. NYC used to have their climate only a few decades ago. Now they have what we did.
  9. SnoSki14
    Yes
  10. SnoSki14
    Not behaving like any of the other strong Ninos so anyone thinking this winter will be a repeat of those strong Nino years needs to think twice
  11. SnoSki14
    Couple of MCS complexes look to move through. One in east PA will clip us over next couple hours with much more significant one in the evening
  12. SnoSki14
    It was wild earlier, looked like a microburst
  13. SnoSki14
    Strong Bermuda High pattern with very high dews. We may not see widespread rain but those that get hit will get hit hard.
  14. SnoSki14
    Well you're not getting a +PDO so I guess we'll all be tanning in mid January
  15. SnoSki14
    A +PDO coupled with a super Nino is just 97/98. A -PDO could cause deconstructive interference which makes the pattern much more variable.
  16. SnoSki14
    The 23/24 Nino was supposed to be very favorable for snows but it ended up being one the warmest/least snowiest. ENSO is still just one factor
  17. SnoSki14
    There's zero indication that the wet pattern will end. In fact the super Nino guarantees a stormy pattern.
  18. SnoSki14
    I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east.
  19. SnoSki14
    Looks more high dew type stuff than 95+ heat.
  20. SnoSki14
    Still nearly zilch near New Brunswick
  21. SnoSki14
    For an organized system like this I'm surprised it's not that widespread. I'll see what the stuff in PA does though
  22. SnoSki14
    I got the split in New Brunswick with storms to the N/W and now to the east. Happened yesterday too.
  23. SnoSki14
    Total miss in central NJ
  24. SnoSki14
    Yup will be a bust here. HRRR takes the stuff in central PA south of us too. What we need is a tropical system or remnants of one to get some major rains
  25. SnoSki14
    HRRR looks very dry outside of NW NJ
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