SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Sad reality. Models did back down some though. -
Maybe this will come back in a couple days. In the past models would lose the storm in the mid range only to bring it back later. However if the kicker idea is correct then there's no coming back from this.
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Pacific has been a killer for years. Dominant fast northern stream has killed all major threats. All we're left with is cutters and suppressed tracks. Virginia might actually clean up nicely with this
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It's been a killer for years. Northern stream is too fast, unless that changes we're not going to get a classic coastal track.
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Congrats Virginia. If this happens I happily welcome Spring
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Yeah game over. Winter sucks
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No it's good. CMC went weaker and less amped compared to 0z but 12z GFS/Icon got much better. It's good to see a range of outlier solutions this far out. The good thing is they would all still give this region its biggest storm in years.
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Things will still move around for a couple days.
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GFS has dual lows otherwise the track would be very similar to the other models. Still 12z gives 6-10" for the metro.
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His calls were essentially a record warm, snowless blowtorch though.
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None were as bad as snowman's torch winter calls.
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I said 2-4" From Feb 5-20 and that looks to be on the mark.
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The record Gulf ssts and tendency for SE ridge to be stronger than forecast could finally help us out.
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Storm explodes as it moves past us. Mixing will be maximized. Wet soils/ground due to 1-2" of rain + any snow melt. Frequent 45-55mph gusts with peak 60+ especially when the front clears tomorrow evening.
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I agree. This has white rain event written all over it for most. Regardless everything will get washed away anyway. The bigger story will be the winds that follow.
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That's actually really good to see given Icon/GFS. You don't want to be in the bullseye this far out so having two solution on opposite extremes is a good thing
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They'll also ignore that everyone outside the US has been on fire this winter. It was enough to set more monthly global temperature records.
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March 2001 was bad but the 3 foot blizzard that never happened was arguably an even bigger bust.
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He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad.
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Doesn't look any windier than usual. Maybe a low end advisory event at best. Gusts look to cap around 40-45mph but since lapse rates have been unusually strong this season I can see 50mph.
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Ridge placement looks bad out west. Unfortunately I think the 20th is a southern slider. Parts of Mid Atlantic/SE will end up with more snow than us this winter.
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Sun Angle isn't a problem until after 1st week of March. It certainly won't be an issue in February.
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Honestly not sure that applies anymore. I'm watching ensembles
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I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however
