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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. Deep easterly Atlantic moisture feed right now. Doesn't matter if the storm stays east of LI, we'll still see flooding.
  2. Flooding rains still look likely. Tons of convection just offshore. As the storm moves north, gets stronger and hooks left thats gonna affect us big time.
  3. Structurally it doesn't look that bad. It's a small system, so it has the potential to intensify pretty quickly. I think even with a miss well east some flooding rains will be likely due to the storm's interaction with the ULL to our west. Paying a close eye on the HRRR
  4. And oddly enough given the slow movement and the tropical moisture it could still do a lot of damage. You'd still get surges piling up with full moon tides and plenty of flooding rains on SW side. All this from what would be a 50-60mph TS.
  5. This may be pulling a TS Chris right now. Looks completely sheared with full decoupling. I expect hurricane warnings to be dropped. Won't be more than a weak TS at landfall.
  6. Wow this is an ugly sheared mess right now. LLC looks completely decoupled from MLC. If trends continue then there may not be much left of it by the weekend.
  7. Everyone's crapping on Henri which means it'll explode tomorrow.
  8. Looks like he's trying to realign himself.
  9. There's still quite a spread though ensembles have been shifting west. Forecasting the interaction with the closed low is very difficult. We really won't know till tomorrow what's gonna happen. C/E LI into CT/RI is my best guess.
  10. Tonight and tomorrow will be the big window. Shear will be really low and environment looks moist. If this can align then it'll take off fast. Regardless of what happens the relatively slow moving nature will cause high surge and flooding. Irene wasn't a hurricane and did tremendous damage.
  11. Further west shifts seem possible but it'll come down to how sharply it hooks left. It could hit anywhere from NYC to eastern LI.
  12. Yeah on visible it still looks to have a slight westerly component. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LLC loop into the MLC as shear decreases later today.
  13. It would have to hook sharply left a la Sandy. Not impossible but very unlikely.
  14. Nam is too weak with it which has major implications with how it interacts with trough to the west. This is why models showing a stronger storm are further west. However if Henri doesn't get stronger than a 75-80mph hurricane then I'd buy it. C/E LI into CT still seem the most likely to me.
  15. Basically a continuation of our tucked in tracks. Major flooding for NJ if this gets near NYC. Surge & hurricane gusts out on LI.
  16. Storm looks west of NHC track. LLC near 74W. Landfall closer to NYC wouldn't surprise me. Storm slows down and loops on approach which means heavy flooding & coastal impacts. How severe will depend on how strong Henri gets. A Category 2+ at peak strength likely weakening to 80-85 mph Cat 1 is possible.
  17. Euros gonna be late to the party again. It had Fred's remnants coming much further east than the other models and was way off.
  18. LI/CT would be in big trouble if the stronger storm scenario plays out.
  19. Shear clearly decreasing now. Henri looks good and should be in a good environment by tomorrow.
  20. Surge should be quite bad. You better hope it doesn't blow up tomorrow & Saturday. Models are always off on intensity (usually too weak).
  21. Even if they are the threat of significant impacts is real. It doesn't help that a lot of places got dumped on today and don't forget the high tides this weekend.
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