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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    This is an expansive and unusually cold Arctic airmass this time. I think it'll be very difficult for low to plow through it.
  2. SnoSki14
    Worst case we still see a significant amount of snow
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow.
  4. SnoSki14
    I think it's more likely it comes in like a wall and turns to sleet at the end as dry slot comes through.
  5. SnoSki14
    In other words they haven't got a clue. They were so convinced it would stay south so now they're going the opposite way. Also MJO will be progressing into 8 so no idea what that has anything to do with it. Pattern is pretty cut and dry to me. You have a widespread Arctic airmass stretched across and energy plowing into it. It's like a SWFE on steroids.
  6. SnoSki14
    Even if we mix at the end we would get dumped on first. There's just way too much cold air in place and it's too expansive to do anything else.
  7. SnoSki14
    Does anyone have 6z Euro/Euro AI or EPS snow maps
  8. SnoSki14
    I'll take a few hours of very heavy snow to mixing at the end if these amounts play out. 06z GEFS showed more confluence vs 0z so I do think the super amped Euro runs could be overdone.
  9. SnoSki14
    The snow amounts would be similar though. Euro is essentially a huge thump to dry slot.
  10. SnoSki14
    When was the last time your region had a foot plus?
  11. SnoSki14
    Not a bad thing that we're north right now. If the Euro is correct with the phasing idea then we would be closer to the jackpot totals vs mid Atlantic
  12. SnoSki14
    What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day
  13. SnoSki14
    Probably 13-14:1 at best. Ratios aren't about surface temperatures.
  14. SnoSki14
    Ok I see it now
  15. SnoSki14
    That's 12z I believe
  16. SnoSki14
    Ceiling is quite high if we can get western energy to fully phase in. I think even if we don't we're probably looking at a 4-8" type system at minimum
  17. SnoSki14
    Good sign that those have continued to improve. Someone loop the last 4-5 runs of it and the difference becomes abundantly clear.
  18. SnoSki14
    Best part is there's no mixing threat.
  19. SnoSki14
    Ensembles mean QPF of 0.5-0.9 at 5-6 days lead time is pretty darn good.
  20. SnoSki14
    We have a lot more wiggle room than anyone north of CT.
  21. SnoSki14
    If there's more phasing and a stronger SE ridge then that's very possible especially this far out where things are still trending
  22. SnoSki14
    Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast.
  23. SnoSki14
    The somewhat slower evolution is a big deal. It allows the high to erode some which will lead to north ticks. It also allows more phasing and energy to come in which slows down the storm and increases duration. With timing shifting more towards later Sun-Mon that will also increase impacts for all. So you go from a significant/major storm to a KU biggie
  24. SnoSki14
    Euro AI with a nice hit. Models a bit slower (Sun into Mon) vs Sat evening/night into Sun. Slower is better for us as it allows high to weaken and lessens suppression risk
  25. SnoSki14
    GEFS continues to improve
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