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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Sleet will happen, not much you can do but you'll get the wall of snow no matter what. At least we're not pulling our hair out over whether we'll get a near miss from a coastal. It doesn't get more brutal than missing a 1-2' storm by 50 miles.
  2. SnoSki14
    Man if the GFS idea is right about the quick coastal transfer then the ceiling is very high
  3. SnoSki14
    It transfers a lot faster. This is the best case scenario It'd be 14-20" pretty much area wide
  4. SnoSki14
    Let us pray. Its been trending with a faster coastal transfer.
  5. SnoSki14
    GFS is definitely not buying the amped camp
  6. SnoSki14
    Rgem is always over amped and runs warm btw. It's also very inaccurate beyond 48hrs
  7. SnoSki14
    Well they average like 5x we do so yeah
  8. SnoSki14
    That's why Mt Holly is going higher. Ratios for half the storm could be quite high given ideal snow growth and temps
  9. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly and Co are betting on high ratios to start for higher totals. If ratios do hit 15:1 then maybe.
  10. SnoSki14
    Is that snow + sleet since technically sleet counts for totals.
  11. SnoSki14
    I hope we don't get 6-8" of snow with 2" of sleet on top. With temps as cold as they are that'll create a giant skating rink with horrendous plowing & travel conditions. That's far worse impact wise than a pure 12-15" snowstorm
  12. SnoSki14
    Agree 100% Rare possibility of more upside than downside I think. Also if precip falls hard enough near the transition zone that we could hold onto snow longer boosting amounts by 2-4"
  13. SnoSki14
    Sure would be nice for the GFS to score for once. GEFS also look great
  14. SnoSki14
    Yeah but every event is different. I'm going with wall of heavy snow to sleet and 6-10" region wide with locals 12+ Leaning on the colder side too. The scope and intensity of this airmass is much larger than what we're used to. It wouldn't surprise me to see models trend colder
  15. SnoSki14
    Oh stop it's a solid 6-10" dump even with the warmest runs. This would be the biggest storm in years for many.
  16. SnoSki14
    The problem is the phasing. Without it you risk suppression, with it you risk a lot of mixing. You don't have an ideal setup out west given the trough placement.
  17. SnoSki14
    The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too.
  18. SnoSki14
    Yes but we do have an anchored and very strong Arctic high in place. Hence why highs will be in the teens on Sunday
  19. SnoSki14
    If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days.
  20. SnoSki14
    Several models hinting that coastal low lingers, if not strengthens somewhat and drops a few inches Monday
  21. SnoSki14
    And it over amplifies a lot
  22. SnoSki14
    Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model
  23. SnoSki14
    Is that mostly snow?
  24. SnoSki14
    I'm going with the wall of snow to sleet idea. We could easily accumulate 6-8+" over a few hours if it comes in fast and heavy. Heavy snowfall rates could also help keep mid levels colder so we hold onto snow longer until things lighten up enough where we fully go to sleet
  25. SnoSki14
    Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out.
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