SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I actually think the weekend has potential. I think we can nab 1-2" tomorrow and get something next weekend.
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That doesn't surprise me.
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I would still go with 1-3" over the area. Maybe we'll get a last minute north bump as we did on Saturday
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Nam would probably be an advisory level (2-4") event here in central NJ. Also NWS mentioned higher ratios 13:1 vs 10:1 possible.
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Probably best chance at something but ensembles showed 20-30" over the next 10 days and look what happened. Not taking anything seriously until it's 2-3 days out
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Such a strong blocking pattern in the past would've led to a much stronger PV that extended much further south. As Bluewave said we've never seen such a strong -AO that equaled a cutter pattern.
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The scope of arctic air would've been much larger and extended a lot further south.
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Just goes to show how drastically our climate has changed. We'd be talking about a 93/94 mixed with 10/11 pattern right now And idiots still think we're being "alarmist"
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It depends on a lot of factors. Where is the block, where is the TPV? Is there a trough out west. Thursday's wave will easily cut. I think the next one will be further south but that could still mean mix/rain. Beyond the 20th if the +PNA happens then our odds at snowfall go up again with AO likely staying negative and a favorable MJO. That doesn't mean suppression can't happen though.
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10" would feel like a HECS today
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Same here. Not to mention Nina climo gets more favorable too late winter. A big snowstorm in the Feb 20 - March 10th period is very possible
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Nah they deserve it after getting shafted for a very long time.
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I'd be very surprised to see cutters, after Thursday with AO so low (lowest of season) and MJO phase 8. I think they'll deamplify and trend south.
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I think the one for next weekend will, not the one for Thursday. MJO still unfavorable and AO still falling. Not guaranteed of course
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1-3" for most still looks probable. Also have to account for higher ratios which are likely. 2nd wave could see some frozen at the onset. Right now models are amped for next weekend's storm but the AO will be near its seasonal lows. MJO will also be in phase 8 too. Last time that happened the Mid-Atlantic got our snows so I wouldn't be surprised to see that storm gradually shift south.
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SWFE style north bumps would do wonders with this. Also ratios should be better than normal.
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Classic screw zone for us. SNE got yesterday, although many underperformed, and Mid-Atlantic gets Tuesday. However given the trends north with yesterday's system I'd say there's still a shot things trend in that direction with this.
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Ensembles being this off would be something
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This is a blue balls winter so far.
