I buy that or 82-83. Think Raindancewx will win again.
Don't think we'll be shutout like last winter, pattern is completely different.
It'll just be a slog before things get better, prob not until 2nd week of Jan given MJO lag.
MJO in the circle and very weak overall. I think that bodes well for a back loaded Nino response if that maintains.
I think raindancewx has the right idea which means things will be a lot better than last year.
Nino pattern starts kicking in by early January.
Seeing heights lower across this region as subtropical jet powers up.
MJO does eventually make it to phase 8 too after Christmas. I think mid Jan to mid Feb could be decent.
Pattern is a lot different than last year. It's similar to 2015 with a more muted December torch. I like 82-83 too.
December 2015 really did seem like a tipping point.
The temperature acceleration since then has been nothing short of extraordinary.
Anyone still denying the warming trend is a complete imbecile.
Maybe but there's a tendency to rush things and there's an MJO lag to take into consideration.
We're actually kinda similar to 2015 but the blocking will prevent another Dec 2015 style warm anomaly. January could be good.
Doesn't look that deep to me and we've had plenty of winter months with strong Atlantic blocking with meh conditions out west that still delivered. PNA reading is positive actually
Block location isn't bad either. Last December the block was too far south for us.
Despite a very negative AO and NAO with strong Atlantic blocking it's in the mid to upper 50s where you live.
There's no cold whatsoever actually. It's not trolling, it's reality that things stink right now despite blocking.
What happens after mid December is too far out to say. I'm more optimistic than last winter if that helps.
We had a huge block and record -AO where we would've cashed in every time but didn't.
We're getting blocking now and it's in the 50s today. These blocks are no longer paying dividends like they used to.
The PV is also shrinking and it's allowing strong Atlantic blocking to get negated too if not merging with the SE ridge
Posters like Raindance & Bluewave have been absolutely crushing it in their analysis over the past few years and I have no reason to doubt them.
What makes you so confident things just don't keep getting pushed back like last year.
The -PDO is not encouraging
Bluewave would definitely call you out on it.
Well we're starting off December hear near 60 for Saturday and several days of 50s so I'd say the warmth wins out bigly.
Not Dec 2015 type warmth mind you but plenty warm.