SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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This was a fairly warm system aloft. Not much cold wedging either so even surface temps are warming. Advisory called for an inch of snow/sleet and that makes sense. Wasn't expecting more than that from this one. Much higher ceiling Saturday
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Hopefully that continues. Has the makings of a nice snow event if it trends a little colder.
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I agree here. One storm at a time. I'm just focusing on tonight into tomorrow morning first to see what happens. Colder/snowier outcome would probably lead to the same for next system.
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One storm at a time. Next week will change a lot
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Which is probably not great. We want a strong thump. Weaker precip won't help
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SE ridge linking with blocking on Euro...same ole song and dance. My 2-4" by the 20th is looking great Actually think there's a good window late Feb into 1st week of March. Blocking gets situated and less western troughiness
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I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up in a screw zone with systems prior to Feb 10 being north of us and post 10th south of us.
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No. This will be from Feb 5-20
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Sure we'll see what happens between now and Feb 20. My prediction is 2-4" total for NYC south
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Just think we get mostly slop. Models trended stronger with SE ridge for the 11-13th too hence the snow/mix to rain the Euro shows. This is a SNE snow pattern to me and I'll stand by it
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Watch us end up with 2" tops. GFS is on crack
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It's very early but think the 12-13th has the best potential to deliver something of substance aka more than 1-2" of slop.
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Best case scenario that we could hope for.
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Not necessarily. The SE ridge will keep fighting back as it does in Nina Febs. We could use some luck with where the gradient sets up.
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A slopfest is possible for sure. Better chance for more frozen with the 9th system however only a slight north trend would lead to mainly rain
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Yup we're kicking that can. That's why we can't buy into colorful maps.
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So far I'm seeing a bunch of pretty maps and no results. We'll see what happens in a few weeks. I continue to believe the boundary ends up further north. Great pattern for SNE points north.
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Watch us end up in a screw zone with earlier systems targeting SNE & north and mid Feb systems favoring southern areas due to TPV suppression. That's kind of what the Euro shows
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There's definitely some promising developments but we need to see actual hits. Day 10+ maps are pretty to look at but we need results. So focus on one system at a time. Looking to see if we can score anything tonight and then midweek.
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GEFS with much stronger Arctic blocking The window is after next weekend if anything is going to happen of consequence
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CMC on the other hand is looking better. We'll see which way the Euro trends.
