SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Another reason to tread lightly on model runs this far out
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Yup good trends getting the confluence weaker
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Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Southern states are going to clean up while we get nothing? -
Don't feed the troll
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He's a realist when it comes to weather. People may not like it, especially during winter but it verifies most of the time.
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How anyone would live and die by day 7+ op runs is beyond me.
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We're cooking today. 65F right now, above forecast. Feels awesome
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I don't think so. It's going to snow
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Following day 7+ OP runs will give you an aneurysm. Just follow the ensembles and give it a rest until after the new year.
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This setup could trend favorably given pattern aloft. Lots of confluence nearby with strong blocking present
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The 6th and 10-11th are the two main opportunities. The 6th looks very SWFE-ish. 0z GFS was an outlier, 06 GFS brought it back. With such a strong blocking pattern, it could trend towards a miller B and further south.
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Some classic GFS snow porn That's a pretty textbook snowstorm pattern showing up. We'd likely have more chances after the 8-10th too.
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Completely sheared out
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Yeah that could deliver too
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GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern
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And inflation will magically disappear. I can't wait for my $1.50 gas
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If the pacific jet can relax even a little bit then pattern is loaded with potential. Jan 5-7 then 9-11 with more afterwards. Unfortunately the trends this winter have been to strengthen the jet as we get closer in
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GFS mainly cold/dry with clipper potential. You really need a sustained western ridge for something better. Probably a colder version of our December pattern. Best odds at something more significant is Jan 10-20
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Late day highs?
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Definitely. A decade ago when the Pacific jet wasn't raging the upcoming period would've been a slam dunk KU pattern imo.
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If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. And then Nina March's can be really good too
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What's biblical? 50"+
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That was a nice trend on the GFS. Better Atlantic blocking and stronger heights out west on the GEFS. NYD is a long shot due to air mass and less than ideal track but not impossible especially for NW zones and higher elevations
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That Pacific jet will be a huge hindrance unfortunately. Hopefully we can get a favorably timed period otherwise it'll be cold/dry to brief warm/wet then back to cold/dry a la warmer version of the 80s
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Made it to 17F, many low teens not far away. Very efficient radiational cooling. I could see ice being a bigger concern than forecast tonight
