SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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You mean the once in a century storm hasn't arrived after 8 years? Some of you need a reality check.
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But I worry that the Pacific jet will trend stronger as has been the case and we end up getting screwed.
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Fast pacific jet will have shortwaves coming in further north. Shortwaves cutting are the issue. Case in point, the GFS OP. The erosion of heights out west means shortwaves can't dig south and take that coveted coastal track. Instead they'll move quickly ENE and best case drop a couple inches if the antecedent air mass is cold enough, otherwise it'll be rain. On the plus side the GEFS are showing less troughiness out west, probably has something to do with the big rise in the PDO
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I don't see that. Lower heights out west. There will be shortwaves ejecting. Problem will be some of them cutting vs coastal track
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It could be 60F and rain like most years. This is the best we could get
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They'll be snowstorm opportunities but we'll also risk storms cutting with that fast pacific jet lowering heights out west. Maybe we can get that Hudson bay block to help
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I could see a wintry mix play out but it seems unlikely to me since there's not much cold in place.
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This is true. A colder correction wouldn't surprise me though neither would a delay. Still appears that the Jan 5-15 period will be the best one for us. Anything before that seems unlikely to yield much, if anything. I also don't see a blowtorch Feb. I like the CFS idea.
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EPS not as bad but not great either. Could be a delayed, not denied situation. I still expect at least a period of favorable conditions in January, probably in the Jan 5-15 window. CFS has the right idea imo
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GFS/GEFS trending in the wrong direction for January. Better hope they're wrong. GFS Op is downright ugly
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Looks a little squalish on the 24th. Mesos picking up on it. Maybe we'll get our miracle Dec 3" after all
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There were clear Nino influences this month especially the last third of December. It's not a canonical Nina due to multiple areas of forcing playing a role. There's no guarantee we go typical Nina after mid January.
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EPS looks better than GEFS. I don't like the lower heights out west on the GFS. The Hudson Bay block could be the biggest positive in all of this.
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There's stats to back it up but our patterns have gotten a lot more convulated lately.
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It's kinda funny how the difference between a 40"+ winter and a 10" winter is another inch of snow in December.
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Chances are this snow will stick around through Christmas so many areas will indeed see a white Christmas
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If it's not gonna snow then I'll take that everyday this winter
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There's an inverted trough signal for Friday.
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Eh I don't think it makes much difference in this pattern. And SNE is closer to what NYC used to be. It's really C/NNE that's completely different
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Flow is way too fast. We just saw this with last week's system. And anyone comparing the setup to 2010 is insane. That had a massive -NAO block
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Lol sure Jan
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At least it'll feel like Christmas
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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
SnoSki14 replied to FXWX's topic in New England
Wow what a global blowtorch on the ensembles. No cold to be found anywhere. At least everyone's f*cked this winter -
More of the same garbage we've seen past decade. I don't mind it honestly. Hopefully we're warm/dry
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EPS has not been reliable though. Probably a lot of back and forth.
