SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Oh boy I see some strong SE Canadian ridging and the WAR making a move as Lee approaches. Way too early to say recurve
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I guess it would be exciting weather wise but the effects of a big time hurricane is not something you would want to deal with. It would be fun for a couple hours and then every tree would start snapping and falling down. Your house would be target practice
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The PV is not as cold, expansive and strong as it used to be either and there's plenty of data to back that up. And that is one of the reasons why we're seeing ridges phase together despite strong blocking while the shrinking PV lobe gets more and more pinched off. I think you're downplaying the effect global warming has had on the overall pattern. I'm with Don & Bluewave on this one Hell even Forky gets this right.
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The former is being illustrated by the CMC/GFS actually today.
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It's fitting in our AGW/CC world that the hottest weather of the summer doesn't actually occur in Met summer. If we hit 97-98 Wed/Thurs that will be the hottest of the year.
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That's an insane statistic. 2C of warming/cooling is the difference between today's climate and an ice age. The fact we shattered a previous heat record by .3C in just the past 7 years is crazy.
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I mean 95% of the time that's the right answer but once in a while it doesn't. Too far out to know for sure right now. Looks like a blocking high builds in as the storm is SW of Bermuda that could send it NW near the east coast. Isabel like track perhaps? Probably the only way this gets to the US as there's no big negative tilt Midwest/Ohio Valley trough that'll tug it west.
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It wouldn't be surprising to see the summer heat end in a nearby major cane strike.
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Tropical threat by mid September? Models are consistent
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Dews are in the mid 60s so it's not that low. But today is just the beginning. The next few days will be very hot and I bet we'll see advisories go up.
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This is as hot as it gets for September. Mid to upper 90s all week. Forky finally wins Its been pretty dry too so the elusive 100F isn't out of the question for someone.
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Oddly enough ensembles hint at eastern troughing around then and beyond once the heat breaks and ridging shifts west.
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This used to be very common back in the day. Still it's refreshing before a super hot week.
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And then September goes on a 10+ day hiatus
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Enjoy these next few days because the coming week looks like a hot one. Probably not oppressively so though with dews in the 60s mostly
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Being in denial is comforting
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I could have told you that. It was pretty obvious this would be a minor event. Small cane (low surge potential) that hit a sparsely populated area. Didn't matter how strong it got with the core of intense winds only being a few miles across without no major population centers nearby.
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If there are any surprises it'll be the extent of devastation in Georgia
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Water levels are over 10' there now
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Western wall looks like a beast 8am update should be a landfall
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Euro has upper 90s next week. Dews probably in the mid 60s so won't feel oppressive but it'll definitely be quite hot.
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Given its forward speed and intense convective dynamics I do think inland impacts will be a lot worse than people expect all the way up to GA/SC It doesn't help that it's almost hugging the SE coast
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Landfall is 2-3hrs away. They'll keep it at 130mph until then. This is a higher end 3 if we're being honest and a relatively small system. Florida is fortunate it's hitting a remote location too.
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This is not a large system. Strong winds will be confined to eyewall
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I do think she'll keep strengthening until landfall. Not enough time for an EWRC. Cat 4 isn't out of the question
