SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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We've crossed the Rubicon and aren't going back.
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Well it does lead to fires
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There's no middle ground anymore. Just one extreme to the next.
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Uh wtf at #1
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Probably a 45+ diurnal temperature swing today. Low of 39 here. Lots of places nearby dipped to the mid 30s. Getting a day like this is something but multiple days of these types of swings has never happened before. True desert like climate lately
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If your analog is correct then we're in trouble. Potential severe drought heading into spring/summer? Would be a fire season for the history books. I'm more concerned about that than water restrictions...for now.
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Next up: California wildfires, New England style But hey maybe all that smoke will put a lid on temps. But side note: 70s & 80s with desert like humidity, sunny skies and a weak sun is awesome personally. I work in cold conditions so dry heat is very nice.
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Until everything starts burning and water restrictions go up
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12z GFS op is CC on roids. No rain at all and 80s into Minnesota to start November. If you're not alarmed then idk what to tell you
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This is insane. 80s well north entering November. Jesus
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We are going beyond typical climate trends. The averages are rising at an exponential pace. A lot of people are still living in denial though...maybe once a Pac NW style heat ridge hits and everyone's 110+ for days with the entire power grid shutting down is when people will notice.
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A drought is the one thing we've managed to avoid in this climate, but perhaps not anymore. Models show little to no rain next 2 weeks with warm weather.
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You copy and paste twitter threads and only post about warm/dry weather. You're the JB of warm trolls You have no clue what you're talking about either. And thanks for wasting one of your 5 daily posts on me again.
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This has been a bizarre season. Hell we might roundabout our way into hyperactivity after all. SSTs are still very warm pretty much everywhere, so it's not over yet.
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I'm not seeing these big California troughs thus far. In fact we've seen record warmth in the SW which has fed into the large positive SST anomalies off the West Coast and much more SW ridging. PDO will be negative but that's another competing influence it'll be up against. I think the Pacific could be a lot more favorable this season, which matters much more than a very negative NAO/AO. In fact it might be better for us to see a +NAO given its diminished effects.
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I think that'll change, at least the warm weather. I'm seeing more ridging out west.
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MJO phase 8 though
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It's an extremely small system. Rapid changes are not unusual. I don't blame them, this had little to no model support
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And you'll be wrong
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Interesting that MJO looks to move into phase 8 to start November. I wonder if things may trend cooler for once
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But we don't live in the southwest. This "perfect" weather will eventually become a big problem.
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The combination of drought and these mega ridges is something new. This would be very bad if it held into next spring/summer
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It's very unlikely that we maintain these dry conditions all winter but if it is a very warm/dry winter then we're looking at big problems next spring/summer. We're talking major fire dangers here.
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I'm noticing rivers and creaks drying up. Will likely see moderate drought conditions expand.
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Just look at the ensembles. Nothing but torch for days on end. And I said after these couple cool days.
