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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Blanket statements like that mean nothing.
  2. SnoSki14
    Models wildly shifting run to run in under 4 days. No consistency whatsoever
  3. SnoSki14
    Since it's been so dry it probably means we'll get like 20" of rain in a 2-3 day timeframe
  4. SnoSki14
    It has another low developing, not sure I buy it. New GFS has gotten wetter. A very difficult pattern to forecast
  5. SnoSki14
    Unless a full scale pattern change occurs, aka PDO flips, it will always be disappointing. The only hope is for brief mismatch intervals.
  6. SnoSki14
    GFS got much wetter
  7. SnoSki14
    We might onshore flow our way into a near normal month.
  8. SnoSki14
    Need the high to trend a bit weaker to avoid suppression
  9. SnoSki14
    Yes persistence forecasting has made the guy look like a genius but there's very little nuance in his posts. Lots of biased takes pulled from Twitter too. JB looked like a genius too in the snowy 2000s & 2010s Era. He's just anti JB at this point. Bluewave and rain do a much better job explaining the rationale behind the warm winters.
  10. SnoSki14
    Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. There's zero nuance.
  11. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'll buy whatever he's selling, dude's been killing it for years now.
  12. SnoSki14
    I totally buy the tropical development off the east coast. Strong high to the north allows for a system to spin underneath. High moves east and storm impacts coast. Where and what kind of impacts remain to be seen. New GFS is following the Euro though
  13. SnoSki14
    Lower sun angle too. Looks ideal for late summer beach season.
  14. SnoSki14
    Probably November honestly. Our endless summer begins.
  15. SnoSki14
    I hope so, that would open us up to some tropical activity
  16. SnoSki14
    Maybe some homebrew tropical activity next week?
  17. SnoSki14
    The greatest heights look north along with warmest departures. I could see a lower high, high min pattern for 2nd half of September
  18. SnoSki14
    You're more likely to see a tornado warning at this rate
  19. SnoSki14
    Very unusual to see such low tropical activity given all the preceding factors...not Nina like at all Good call by raindance doubting all the hyperactive forecasts
  20. SnoSki14
    His schtick regarding winter forecasts is not that much different than JB though, just the opposite (always warm, snowless winter). And yeah more often than not he'll be right due to pattern persistence and background warming from CC. But there's no nuance, just copy and paste.
  21. SnoSki14
    Wow great storm, wind driven rain and crazy thunder & lightning. Best storm of the year
  22. SnoSki14
    Doesn't seem very Nina like in LR. Tropics still mostly dead, lots of strong troughs digging east.
  23. SnoSki14
    Climate has changed dramatically since 2001. We've become way too over reliant on analogs when we're a moving target climate wise. What was looking like a hyperactive hurricane season is starting to flop. We had a raging +NAO that delivered unusually cool weather in NW Europe. Blocking patterns in winter no longer produce the same outcomes either.
  24. SnoSki14
    I really think we need to reconsider climo and analogs throughout the year, not just winter. We're getting more and more unusual weather combinations than the past. That's why I'm not sold on a blowtorch, snowless winter just because of ENSO.
  25. SnoSki14
    Winter is on permanent disability
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