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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Definitely without question. Highs could stay in the 30s as well
  2. SnoSki14
    MJO will still try to exert a warming influence but agree that other factors are in play too. EPS looking better than GEFS right now, less MJO influence
  3. SnoSki14
    It's going to be challenging keeping a ridge out west with the Pacific jet as strong as it is. Something like the 6z GFS Op is likely. Will be a constant battle this winter so we have to maximize our chances when the ridge out west flexes. You'd need a full scale change of the PDO for a 13-15 winter pattern sustained western ridge.
  4. SnoSki14
    They might not show up until we get closer in. 13/14 was like that We just need rains to break the dry spell first.
  5. SnoSki14
    Storm track shouldn't be that bad.
  6. SnoSki14
    Not much cold air present even in a good track.
  7. SnoSki14
    Storm next Friday looks legit. All models show but very marginal setup. A weaker storm will end up south but won't have much precip/cold air to work with. A stronger storm would end up further north which means rain for most. Something like the CMC might be the best case.
  8. SnoSki14
    It's not going to snow. Euro is cutter city.
  9. SnoSki14
    Things could easily revert to a warmer pattern. Getting snow in early December would be really beneficial
  10. SnoSki14
    Raindancewx was more encouraging than most. Best case is a mismatch like 20/21
  11. SnoSki14
    Pacific jet looking to ramp up. Things should improve going forward
  12. SnoSki14
    Yeah America spoke and showed the world how stupid they really are. Now you have Fox News Hosts and pedophiles in your cabinet but I guess that's par for the course today. Get ready for those tariffs... that'll really keep costs down lol. And as far as climate policy goes...yikes. Our faucets might have oil coming out of them.
  13. SnoSki14
    Even my area in NJ has experienced at or below freezing weather several times already despite hitting 80s several times this fall. The dry weather has led to ideal radiational nights.
  14. SnoSki14
    Or according to Wolfie...it's totally normal and good actually
  15. SnoSki14
    It's bizarre and it's actually a little muggy too with 59/60 dews.
  16. SnoSki14
    Sure we might all go up in flames but at least it's 74F & sunny in November
  17. SnoSki14
    If these warm/dry winter forecasts are correct then we're looking at a massive drought and fire spring season, worse than 01/02
  18. SnoSki14
    That's far more likely than any shot at snow or even BN temps
  19. SnoSki14
    Warm/dry looks locked in. Rain chances dropping fast too Only thing that changes is we go back to more over the top ridging vs WAR ridge, cooler highs (still AN) & warmer mins due to onshore flow.
  20. SnoSki14
    Odd distribution across the season but yes it's verifying In fact another storm or two is probable after Rafael and a hyperactive ACE is still in play.
  21. SnoSki14
    Nothing but brown landscapes in Jersey. Looks like the SW
  22. SnoSki14
    It already happened in Feb so year round shot at 80s is in the cards. Much better odds this season with the drought
  23. SnoSki14
    What will be the breaking point that actually forces global changes is the question. Because so far it's been pretty much business as usual
  24. SnoSki14
    That's more likely than not
  25. SnoSki14
    +20 Huge fire season. Maybe all the smoke will hold temps down
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