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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Maybe the amped GFS run will mean other models will come aboard tonight. Better than an OTS whiff
  2. SnoSki14
    Would be nice if the 11-12th threat could materialize otherwise we're going into late Jan with little to show for it despite BN temperatures
  3. SnoSki14
    Ensembles are showing some some ridging in the east by Jan 18-20 however it could be transient and they could be jumping the gun somewhat.
  4. SnoSki14
    From suppression to cutters. Lovely. Gotta watch the Hudson bay blocking as that has tended to trend stronger too and could hold back SE ridge
  5. SnoSki14
    Going back 5 days from current system and GFS was remarkably accurate. Every storm is different however but I do think once models get a grasp on the system that it won't change much
  6. SnoSki14
    We're seeing it with the current storm though. Yeah some models were a bit further north but they were very accurate several days out.
  7. SnoSki14
    I can't imagine the meltdowns if this ends up giving the Mid-Atlantic a monster storm and skunks everyone else
  8. SnoSki14
    In the past we would kill to be in this position this far out given inevitable NW/amped trend however with our luck this will hold as is.
  9. SnoSki14
    Delmarva will get 30+ over next week if the models are correct
  10. SnoSki14
    Yes that's positive to see
  11. SnoSki14
    At least there was follow-up from the 18z and no it's not a bad spot this far out but we want other models to show something similar
  12. SnoSki14
    Only a few hours until the 0z suite crushes everyone's hopes and dreams. I just don't buy it given the fast flow we've been dealing with
  13. SnoSki14
    Agreed I just don't buy it given the fast flow. 0z GFS will probably go back to reality
  14. SnoSki14
    I'm guessing 18z GFS was more fluky given other models/ensembles but just goes to show what would happen if that energy south gets ejected in time. Literally the difference between a non/small event and historic blizzard
  15. SnoSki14
    At this point one of our typically crappiest pattern will be the one that gives us a HECS And a moderate Nino with strong blocking is probably ideal for us. Strong STJ with cold air flowing down. Unfortunately we've been dealing with the opposite aka Nina dominated pattern
  16. SnoSki14
    This weather sucks. Give me warm and dry over this weather if it's not going to snow. Oh and the wind makes it so much worse
  17. SnoSki14
    GFS is just miserable. Mostly cold & dry...yuck
  18. SnoSki14
    Northern stream is too fast and leaves behind that Baja energy. It's been a problem for years now. Best case is maybe 2-4/3-6" type deal so a slightly more amped up version of the GFS.
  19. SnoSki14
    Game over Congrats Mid-Atlantic they're gonna clean up.
  20. SnoSki14
    These are conflicting viewpoints. If CC is altering the MJO and forcing due to record warm ssts then it's affecting the pattern. And in this case in a negative way for snow/cold
  21. SnoSki14
    Wouldn't be a bad look if it materialized
  22. SnoSki14
    No
  23. SnoSki14
    Seeing all these disappointments over the last few years really makes me appreciate the epic snow pattern of the 2000s and 2010s. I'm sure we'll eventually get a nice big snowstorm but it's going to take a lot of work. And we still have time before the CC warming destroys our hopes. Just look at DC with their upcoming storm.
  24. SnoSki14
    This could easily end up too wound up. From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter.
  25. SnoSki14
    Don't expect more than a dusting to an inch and hopefully we'll get a surprise
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