SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It should have some subtropical characteristics. The region off the SE coast is very warm.
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Euro hasn't been doing the best lately
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GFS moving in a wet direction for the weekend now. Some definite subtropical characteristics there. Overall pattern looks warm/wet with more muted highs and very high mins.
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That's likely a tropical/subtropical system. Other models are showing some homebrew development and all that moisture could head straight towards us. The tendency so far this season has been east with systems so I'm not buying the more west GFS right now.
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Notice he also has no counter to Bluewave's analysis regarding the supposed "Super" Nino and its refusal to couple.
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We're straying from the WAR coastal hugger/inland tracks this year I see. Could be a good sign for winter if the WAR isn't as strong
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Euro's Sandy forecast is still one of the greatest modeling performances I've ever seen.
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Pattern looks pretty ripe for some homebrew tropical development with onshore flow pattern and big sprawling high east of New England.
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I don't understand the dismissal of CC on our weather patterns to the point of flat out denial. Of course background warming is having an impact and a pretty substantial one at that. Also don't like when people say oh if so and so pattern today occurred in the past it would also be unfavorable for cold/snow. That might be true but to what extent and is it really the same kind of pattern.
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How many strong to super Ninos had higher Atlantic ACE than east Pacific because with Margot & Nigel coming up & east Pacific staying quiet that looks very possible.
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Of course this happens when the cooler season arrives. Oh well I guess I'll be wearing shorts til Thanksgiving
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Huh? The -PNA/+EPO pattern is very Nina like to me. A stark contrast to June-August.
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Even to 70W would've made a big difference in this instance
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Lee couldn't even make it to 68W. Of course it wasn't going to be a good hit.
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Love the look of these big poleward canes. Outflow is spectacular
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Not sure what the hype was. Models weren't all that enthused and the timing was off.
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It wouldn't surprise me if we went from summer to winter with barely any fall
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The speed of Lee is a major reason why. The slower it moves the more time for ridging to build to its northeast.
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The Euro would have some significant coastal impacts. Even though it won't be strong, probably 75-90mph, it'll be a very large system with tons of wave/erosion & surge potential.
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I remember those days. The fact more people aren't alarmed we're still getting lows in the upper 60s & 70s in mid September is jarring.
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Yeah because I want a hurricane to wreck my house.
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Coastal impacts may be quite extensive purely due to its massive size (likely double from now) once it gets here. Those impacts would increase big time if there is a hook west.
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Quite strong too with baroclinic boost so could have some hybrid characteristics. Wind field will likely be massive SSTs would also be warmer the further south it hooks as well delaying weakening.
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The strength of that Wed shortwave and how quickly it lifts out plus the speed of Lee are all major factors. If the shortwave is weaker, lifts out faster and Lee is slower moving then it'll get hooked pretty far west. I guess that's your best case scenario if you want a good hit.
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Sometimes models latch onto something and trend in that direction for better or worse. We see this often in the winter where a seemingly favorable solution turns to crap as we get closer. Need the Euro to resemble something like yesterday though
