SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Foliage is strong but everything is bone dry so the leaves just look worn out. And it feels like the SW out there. Going from such wet conditions to setting a dryness record is something else
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Unless that vortex locks in all winter like 11/12
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Ensembles continue the dry pattern. Big ridge over the east pretty much locked in next few weeks with brief cooler intervals
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The problem is these patterns have been getting stuck for a very long time. Being warm is one thing but there's always been rain with it. Prolonged warm & dry is something we haven't seen in a very long time.
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The anger when anyone even mentions CC is also bizarre. I guess it's been so overly politicized that it's impossible to mention it without getting your head ripped off. It's also probably the reason why we're all screwed Fermi paradox style
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I'd take the over. That's another massive ridge being shown. And with the dry weather temps will exceed guidance. Nothing says fall like multiple days in the 80s in October.
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The crazy thing is a lot of us may hit freezing this weekend with the dryness really amplifying the radiational cooling.
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We've crossed the Rubicon and aren't going back.
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Well it does lead to fires
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There's no middle ground anymore. Just one extreme to the next.
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Uh wtf at #1
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Probably a 45+ diurnal temperature swing today. Low of 39 here. Lots of places nearby dipped to the mid 30s. Getting a day like this is something but multiple days of these types of swings has never happened before. True desert like climate lately
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If your analog is correct then we're in trouble. Potential severe drought heading into spring/summer? Would be a fire season for the history books. I'm more concerned about that than water restrictions...for now.
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Next up: California wildfires, New England style But hey maybe all that smoke will put a lid on temps. But side note: 70s & 80s with desert like humidity, sunny skies and a weak sun is awesome personally. I work in cold conditions so dry heat is very nice.
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Until everything starts burning and water restrictions go up
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12z GFS op is CC on roids. No rain at all and 80s into Minnesota to start November. If you're not alarmed then idk what to tell you
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This is insane. 80s well north entering November. Jesus
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We are going beyond typical climate trends. The averages are rising at an exponential pace. A lot of people are still living in denial though...maybe once a Pac NW style heat ridge hits and everyone's 110+ for days with the entire power grid shutting down is when people will notice.
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A drought is the one thing we've managed to avoid in this climate, but perhaps not anymore. Models show little to no rain next 2 weeks with warm weather.
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You copy and paste twitter threads and only post about warm/dry weather. You're the JB of warm trolls You have no clue what you're talking about either. And thanks for wasting one of your 5 daily posts on me again.
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This has been a bizarre season. Hell we might roundabout our way into hyperactivity after all. SSTs are still very warm pretty much everywhere, so it's not over yet.
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I'm not seeing these big California troughs thus far. In fact we've seen record warmth in the SW which has fed into the large positive SST anomalies off the West Coast and much more SW ridging. PDO will be negative but that's another competing influence it'll be up against. I think the Pacific could be a lot more favorable this season, which matters much more than a very negative NAO/AO. In fact it might be better for us to see a +NAO given its diminished effects.
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I think that'll change, at least the warm weather. I'm seeing more ridging out west.
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MJO phase 8 though
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It's an extremely small system. Rapid changes are not unusual. I don't blame them, this had little to no model support
