SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Looks like a lot of slop before a potentially more favorable snow window in mid Feb. Euro with the passage into MJO 8 shows why it's better with the blocking
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Yeah it actually doesn't look cold/dry once blocking gets going. It would still be nice to score something before mid Feb though
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It ends with massive arctic and Greenland blocking sending arctic air into the US lol
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I think this system is a good test for the following one. Let's see if the TPV causes a more southern press than currently depicted. If it does then the 9th would likely trend in that direction.
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Would be nice if the GFS had a clue.
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So March 2018 coming up?
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Euro does have an over amplification bias so I do think it'll trend somewhat towards the other models
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The Euro/EPS is not the king it used to be though so there's that but not having it show much isn't good either
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Take that to the bank I have zero expectations rest of winter. Any snow would be a pleasant surprise imo
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Looks like a little clipper for tomorrow. Probable snow showers at least
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Then there's the Icon that screws everyone over
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What a weenie GFS OP run. Straight out of JBs basement There's 5 or 6 threats on that run.
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This is a dream snowy pattern for SNE/CNE. Very 07-08 like. Enjoy
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From the most obvious source. Don't understand why. I could see a snow/sleet to rain scenario for sure. Ultimately I favor the boundary to end up in SNE though.
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Had the cold air been as extensive as it was 25+ years ago we probably could've had another 94 on our hands this month.
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And unfortunately any blocking is too far out on the ensembles right now. Personally think this is a SNE north gradient pattern. Think 08 though maybe a tad further south but time will tell
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That's true but underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril. A little blocking would do wonders for us right now.
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It's all about that boundary. Right now it favors SNE and north
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80s had consistently small to moderate events along with very cold temps. Our averages are soaring now so those events have dwindled. Now it's all or nothing winters however climate change is affecting our weather patterns more than ever. These new patterns are not favorable for significant snows so we're seeing more and more nothing years
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Or just climate change
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Maybe things can turn around late winter. I know Nina Marches can be decent. And a -PNA is less unfavorable in late winter. However I'm not getting my hopes up. This winter has mainly been a different kind of disaster....cold & dry vs the usual warm/wet. And of course when more precip does arrive it's rain.
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There's a chance that the TPV press causes a southward adjustment
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It would be nice if 06z GFS verified. Shades of 94 on that run. Unfortunately ensembles are a lot warmer so I don't buy it.
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Really I think it should be pretty easy. Ensembles are quite warm.
