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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    So much insufferable whining
  2. SnoSki14
    Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days.
  3. SnoSki14
    I'd recommend taking your eyes off the models for a few days. Things won't really come into focus until Thursday at minimum. And avoid the hype posts on social media... they're going to be relentless
  4. SnoSki14
    Yikes, this is why 95 percent of the population hates snow
  5. SnoSki14
    These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry
  6. SnoSki14
    I'd be nervous if we were in the bullseye this far out as these things almost always come north. Having models keeping this south 6 days out is not a bad thing
  7. SnoSki14
    This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much.
  8. SnoSki14
    One of the strongest blocking patterns on record. AO will get pretty negative but NAO not so much.
  9. SnoSki14
    Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block
  10. SnoSki14
    Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are.
  11. SnoSki14
    Way too early to make this declaration. At this stage the Euro was completely OTS on yesterday's system
  12. SnoSki14
    Very consistent
  13. SnoSki14
    Massive cold dome with trough out west and SE ridge in place. This will yield a massive overrunning storm. Yes there will be a brick wall somewhere but good chance it ends up affecting areas pretty far north. Very PDII esque on AI models
  14. SnoSki14
    Biggies are coming
  15. SnoSki14
    A very wintry weekend. Looks like a snow globe out there. And it should stick around for a while. Only real melting day is Thursday
  16. SnoSki14
    It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now but we'll see.
  17. SnoSki14
    And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct.
  18. SnoSki14
    This is a nowcasting situation now. I've stopped looking at models
  19. SnoSki14
    What indicators could suggest this?
  20. SnoSki14
    If the HRRR is right it will explode quickly between now and 4
  21. SnoSki14
    Huge if the AI models are anywhere close to being right next weekend
  22. SnoSki14
    Nearly identical to GFS AI
  23. SnoSki14
    PNA will be positive and MJO moves to phase 8. Multiple factors aligning for something big. And some winters it just wants to snow. We've been seeing that so far this season. Yes no biggies yet but it's coming.
  24. SnoSki14
    I genuinely think the pattern is pretty loaded for a large overrunning Miller A/B type storm in late Jan. And it's showing up in spurts across op runs. With today's event the AI models had the best handle several days out so definitely keep an eye on what they show.
  25. SnoSki14
    It's gonna snow a lot. Don't believe the extreme suppression that's being shown.
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