SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however
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A cutter with a near -5 AO is unheard of. Something has changed. The SE ridge would've never been this strong in the past
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Cut to someone saying this would've still been a cutter 100+ years ago No CC has completely altered the norms. Probably why we're not experiencing the usual Nina pattern this winter either.
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Probably an inch or two front end snows. I see big potential for the 20th. All major models show something brewing.
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HRRR gives nothing. Dry air eats it all up
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That looks generous given HRRR & radar. I'll go with an inch tops
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If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track.
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I actually think the weekend has potential. I think we can nab 1-2" tomorrow and get something next weekend.
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That doesn't surprise me.
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I would still go with 1-3" over the area. Maybe we'll get a last minute north bump as we did on Saturday
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Nam would probably be an advisory level (2-4") event here in central NJ. Also NWS mentioned higher ratios 13:1 vs 10:1 possible.
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Probably best chance at something but ensembles showed 20-30" over the next 10 days and look what happened. Not taking anything seriously until it's 2-3 days out
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Such a strong blocking pattern in the past would've led to a much stronger PV that extended much further south. As Bluewave said we've never seen such a strong -AO that equaled a cutter pattern.
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The scope of arctic air would've been much larger and extended a lot further south.
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Just goes to show how drastically our climate has changed. We'd be talking about a 93/94 mixed with 10/11 pattern right now And idiots still think we're being "alarmist"
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It depends on a lot of factors. Where is the block, where is the TPV? Is there a trough out west. Thursday's wave will easily cut. I think the next one will be further south but that could still mean mix/rain. Beyond the 20th if the +PNA happens then our odds at snowfall go up again with AO likely staying negative and a favorable MJO. That doesn't mean suppression can't happen though.
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10" would feel like a HECS today
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Same here. Not to mention Nina climo gets more favorable too late winter. A big snowstorm in the Feb 20 - March 10th period is very possible
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Nah they deserve it after getting shafted for a very long time.
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I'd be very surprised to see cutters, after Thursday with AO so low (lowest of season) and MJO phase 8. I think they'll deamplify and trend south.
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I think the one for next weekend will, not the one for Thursday. MJO still unfavorable and AO still falling. Not guaranteed of course
