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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    This has been the reality for the past decade. Bluewave constantly points this out. It's the same kind of storm track too. The only ones that really benefit are anyone around the lakes and C/NNE. Maybe the pattern will flip again one day but we need to see a complete change in the forcing out in the Pacific.
  2. SnoSki14
    I think people need to let go of the analogs of the past. We're in a completely different climate now.
  3. SnoSki14
    Colder airmass to start so yes I agree though similar setup to Tuesday with high escaping. Will depend on storm track Unfortunately think majority of snows occurs NW of our region. SNE and north will do really well. Borderline for NYC
  4. SnoSki14
    Agreed
  5. SnoSki14
    Probably some white rain at the onset, maybe even a little grass accumulation at best but will all turn to rain with temps near 40F.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's probably the result of the split forcing in the Pacific. EPS/GEPS with the MJO 8 like pattern while GEFS loops around.
  7. SnoSki14
    GEFS still looks like trash LR
  8. SnoSki14
    GEFS still the outlier with trough out west leading to much warmer conditions east & ridging. Bet snowman loves that
  9. SnoSki14
    We'd probably get a solid storm if airmass was a little colder. Pretty nice track actually
  10. SnoSki14
    High is moving out, antecedent airmass isn't cold enough. Track won't help. You need to be well N&W or elevated
  11. SnoSki14
    You're getting white rain at best, surface temps are way too warm Probably have to wait til mid Dec for a light to moderate event. Seems likely we'll get something with coming pattern
  12. SnoSki14
    For SNE and north sure, not down here.
  13. SnoSki14
    Probably more likely than normal that we see some snow. Very volatile weather pattern though
  14. SnoSki14
    This set-up would probably work in January with a colder antecedent air mass. Track isn't bad. Fast flow doesn't allow low to amp up and move inland.
  15. SnoSki14
    You aren't getting snow in the city next week. High is retreating, low will cut west. Not enough cold out ahead of it either. It's a lost cause
  16. SnoSki14
    On the bright side today shows the MJO getting to phase 8, which reflects the early snow threats to our N/W zones
  17. SnoSki14
    Favorable snow pattern for midwest/lakes and C/N New England. Lean towards cooler than normal further south but likely too warm for snow due to unfavorable storm track.
  18. SnoSki14
    Lock it in
  19. SnoSki14
    The only thing I could see is the fast flow helping a system from over amplifying and if there's enough cold air in place we get some overrunning. That's prob the best we can hope for
  20. SnoSki14
    I remember the 2018 Thanksgiving cold snap, that was some serious mid winter style cold
  21. SnoSki14
    It's been pretty much the same winter pattern for the last decade minus a few blips here and there.
  22. SnoSki14
    It feels that way. Same ole garbage pattern locked in for years. At least I got to experience an amazing winter stretch from 2000-2018
  23. SnoSki14
    You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD
  24. SnoSki14
    You always post the same day 15+ ensembles that show a supposedly amazing pattern that never comes to fruition
  25. SnoSki14
    It's just pure hopium at this point. I don't see anything to be positive about. SE ridge looks pretty dominant and cold dumps west with troughing So cold/dry to warm/wet and vice versa will be the theme. Same storm tracks we've been seeing for years now
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