SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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So the no 4" streak is officially over then
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Because it's not linear or evenly spread out plus it's weather vs climate. Look at the grand scope and you'll see warmth dominate over both a larger area and time frame. For example despite December being cold in the northeast US it absolutely torched for 2/3 of the country with record breaking all time December warmth in many spots.
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So according to the stats of a Nina December, the rest of winter should be pretty good.
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For everyone that busted, it's all gonna get washed away in a couple days anyway.
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CT cleaned up nicely
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Lol it wasn't even supposed to be a big storm. A big bust is forecast a foot plus and getting 1-2"
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Very treacherous conditions developing. Temperatures several degrees below freezing Nam nailed it
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Looks like a sleetstorm coming for Somerset
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Which is why I'm surprised how far north the best snows are.
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I still like a general 4-8 for most. Snow will probably come in fast and quick and then taper to ZR. The further north you are the closer you'll get to 7-8" and local spots further north will exceed that obviously
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Hopefully more snow than ice. Snow/sleet is very disruptive compared to just snow and it's a huge pain to clean up. Hopefully timing is after rush hour
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Just given the cold dense dry air in place I would give a lot more credence to the GFS/RGEM than the northern models.
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GFS also held its ground
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Don't be surprised if the heaviest snows end up further south. That's a cold/dry airmass taking over our region. It's 28/9 by me right now.
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WWA now. Figures with models trending downward. However more ice will probably cause more issues had we just had more snows.
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Very toasty Christmas overall, record breaking warmth southwest and central
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Snow will be gone 2 days later so people need to chill
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If it comes in like a wall of heavy snow then he could be right.
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Very cold BL temps vs other storm. Thump to ZR/Sleet most likely scenario. 4-8" right on the money from forecasts
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Well the good news if we get screwed is that it all gets washed away in a couple days anyway. At least we're getting snow opportunities this year
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RGEM not being amped is a big sign too. I really think it's just going to be a wall of snow that quickly drops several inches and then when rates lessen it turns to sleet/zr
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Looks to be on par with the other snow event we got recently here aka 5-6" near Somerset.
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This is why mets use a blend to create a forecast. There's always going to be outliers.
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Biggest thing to watch out for is the warm nose. Could result in more sleet than people expect. Not sure exactly where that sets up yet.
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Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter. Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance
