Ensembles show cutoff potential for early May, leaning towards 2nd week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of April, which was a mixed bag that's ending much warmer.
There are people that downplay warm-ups alot. It's worse in NE forum.
We're well on our way to another top 10 warm month and there are those that are dismissing it because it's not top 3-5.