SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Things will still move around for a couple days.
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GFS has dual lows otherwise the track would be very similar to the other models. Still 12z gives 6-10" for the metro.
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His calls were essentially a record warm, snowless blowtorch though.
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None were as bad as snowman's torch winter calls.
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I said 2-4" From Feb 5-20 and that looks to be on the mark.
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The record Gulf ssts and tendency for SE ridge to be stronger than forecast could finally help us out.
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Storm explodes as it moves past us. Mixing will be maximized. Wet soils/ground due to 1-2" of rain + any snow melt. Frequent 45-55mph gusts with peak 60+ especially when the front clears tomorrow evening.
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I agree. This has white rain event written all over it for most. Regardless everything will get washed away anyway. The bigger story will be the winds that follow.
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That's actually really good to see given Icon/GFS. You don't want to be in the bullseye this far out so having two solution on opposite extremes is a good thing
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They'll also ignore that everyone outside the US has been on fire this winter. It was enough to set more monthly global temperature records.
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March 2001 was bad but the 3 foot blizzard that never happened was arguably an even bigger bust.
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He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad.
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Doesn't look any windier than usual. Maybe a low end advisory event at best. Gusts look to cap around 40-45mph but since lapse rates have been unusually strong this season I can see 50mph.
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Ridge placement looks bad out west. Unfortunately I think the 20th is a southern slider. Parts of Mid Atlantic/SE will end up with more snow than us this winter.
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Sun Angle isn't a problem until after 1st week of March. It certainly won't be an issue in February.
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Honestly not sure that applies anymore. I'm watching ensembles
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I'd like to see a list of previous storms when the AO was -5. I doubt you'll find many cutters. You will find blizzards however
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A cutter with a near -5 AO is unheard of. Something has changed. The SE ridge would've never been this strong in the past
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Cut to someone saying this would've still been a cutter 100+ years ago No CC has completely altered the norms. Probably why we're not experiencing the usual Nina pattern this winter either.
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Probably an inch or two front end snows. I see big potential for the 20th. All major models show something brewing.
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HRRR gives nothing. Dry air eats it all up
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That looks generous given HRRR & radar. I'll go with an inch tops
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If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track.
