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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    One thing that worries me is hurricanes try to avoid hitting land as long as possible and given the trajectory, a more northern landfall wouldn't surprise me. Nail biter for TB
  2. SnoSki14
    There's going to be a ton of energy once this unravels near landfall, better hope it keeps trending south.
  3. SnoSki14
    Probably due to the mostly sunny conditions and dry weather. Should see highs overperform and nights to be cooler than forecast.
  4. SnoSki14
    This is going to carry tons of water, sort of like Katrina on a smaller scale, even once it unravels near landfall. Will also get much larger than this with a few EWRCs likely Tampa better pray it goes to their south.
  5. SnoSki14
    It won't. No model shows this. Will it get uncomfortably close and have some impact, yes.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's an ugly run. Shear doesn't really get to it until very late. Track is very bad for TB.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yes but you'd go from catastrophic to pretty bad in terms of impact. Even a weakening storm that hits just north of TB would bring significant surge into the bay.
  8. SnoSki14
    Whenever you mention that people think you're trolling. That was my earlier thoughts. This is not a Helene situation
  9. SnoSki14
    Agreed it should be an average sized storm. That's why impact location does matter this time. It's a world of difference in terms of damage/impacts if the GFS is correct vs other globals.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's terrible for hurricanes. Globals themselves don't leverage intensity well. The GFS is doing the best job intensity wise of the globals.
  11. SnoSki14
    GFS isn't something FL would handle with ease and it's been very consistent with that near to north of TB track. Now that's something to worry about because the surge would be horrendous
  12. SnoSki14
    I'm not trolling at all. It's a fact that smaller, weakening storms are far less impactful than much larger, strengthening ones near landfall. It'll be impactful for some for sure but a lot of people like to catastrophize too especially on social media.
  13. SnoSki14
    I think Helene was downplayed by a lot of people which was crazy given how massive it was. That's the biggest factor when it comes to damage, size. Right now Milton is a small storm, we'll see if that changes later but a weakening hurricane of average to below average size in an area familiar with hurricanes will fare just fine. The impacts also change drastically if you go from TB to Ft. Myers.
  14. SnoSki14
    I don't forsee Milton being very impactful over FL. Should be considerably weaker than Helene and much smaller Also looks to track south of TB, which is great news. Florida will handle this with ease.
  15. SnoSki14
    Radiational cooling could be really strong this week due to the dryness Wouldn't be surprised to see 30s here.
  16. SnoSki14
    That's an ugly forecast from the NHC. They note intensity could be stronger too. I'm curious how large the storm will be because it's very small right now and that'll make a huge difference regarding surge impacts.
  17. SnoSki14
    Like with Helene the flooding/surge will be the story. Shouldn't be as large a storm so impacts will be over a smaller region.
  18. SnoSki14
    A stronger, larger storm will try to go more poleward. I do think Tampa could be in trouble but it'll be a close call.
  19. SnoSki14
    It is feast or famine. When the dryness breaks, it'll break hard.
  20. SnoSki14
    I could see a scenario where trough lifts out and storm gets stuck off the SE coast for a couple days until next trough picks it up. Still not sure if that would produce though
  21. SnoSki14
    Wind is more of a cool, aesthetic factor but yes the real culprit is almost always storm surge & flooding.
  22. SnoSki14
    Days and days of clouds but less than an inch of rain to show for it. We got easterly flowed into a slightly BN month. Next weekend should be really nice though, near 80F.
  23. SnoSki14
    I buy it.
  24. SnoSki14
    November is the one month that can still be cold so there will be frosts before December.
  25. SnoSki14
    A lot of dreariness without much to show for it. Remains me of a warmer version of March/April. Models showing Gulf activity too. Wouldn't surprise me to see tropical activity preceding cooler weather next month.
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