SnoSki14

It has been much cloudier than normal especially near the coast due to non-stop onshore flow. It has felt like a warmer version of Seattle this month.

I think the cool autumn ship has sailed permanently. At this point we'd be fortunate just to avoid the top 10 warmest fall months.

Most rain ever in tropical system for NC definitely ranks as a lifetime event for somebody. I'm not so sure the total impacts post Flo would've been any different. Had this been a Cat 4, it likely would've been a much smaller storm, so that only a small portion of the coast would receive those winds. Again when people talk Harvey, they often point out the flooding, not the Cat 4 winds. Finally location matters, the LF location was not heavily populated, so while the winds and surge would've been higher, not a lot more people would've been affected. No Houston, New Orleans, or NYC in the way.

The freshwater flooding is only just beginning, by next week several rivers will be at major to record crest heights. Max totals have already surpassed any hurricane there on record and will likely exceed 40". I think the economic costs will rival Sandy. Pretty good for "only a Category 1".

Flo should easily break Floyd's rainfall record and NC State records. Radar is showing more widespread and increasing rainfall rates spread further inland. I think the tone will be a lot more sobering a week from now (all rivers crest).

The scope of the damage will reveal itself soon. Speaking of lackluster media coverage, one of the strongest landfalling typhoons on record is occurring right now and I haven't heard a peep about it.

It has always been like this, the same things happen with any other weather event especially snowstorms. I wish people understood all the possibilities instead of jumping on the most extreme one and going along with it. Yeah if you ride the hype train, then anything less than a 10 will feel lackluster, which is extremely dangerous because then people let their guard down. You don't need a worse case scenario to get a lot of damage.

Oh wow snow in the mountains, crazy.

All Sandy had was surge, there was barely any rainfall north and east of the storm. Had Sandy not struck the most populated (and expensive) region in the US, the damages would've been moderate at best.

They definitely aren't readable.

It's a slow moving disaster, the worst effects will be unfolding over the past 2-3 days. Rainfall totals will exceed anything Floyd or other storms gave them.

The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. A long ways to go with this.

They did the best they could, it just goes to show how difficult it is to get a major above 30N. Hugo, Fran and Hazel were rare animals indeed.

This pattern is probably on lock until the wave lengths change. It's crazy how it just stays locked in for months. A lot more cloudy days in store though with plenty of onshore flow.

It won't really matter, the effects will be the same. I don't know what kind of hurricane people were expecting at 32-35N, it's holding pretty well. The outflow to the north and northeast looks fantastic.

Should be passing over gulf stream as well, could provide a boost in intensity.

Why should people tone it down? With storms like these, it's better to get ready for the worst and hope for the best. I don't mind the hype if it gets people to take this seriously.

I'm curious to see the early effects of this system tomorrow. I recall Ike was already causing surge issues hundreds of miles offshore.

I can't imagine a large major hurricane just dangling offshore for days. In NJ we just had moderate coastal flooding from stronger than normal onshore flow.

Florence would be making LF in a very surge prone area.

This is a historic disaster in the works, Florence will likely terrorize the Carolinas for days. Models are picking up on the strength of the ridge again, and if that's the case, then the first LF could end up further south.

Instead of wish casting, why don't people just pay attention to the NHC, they seem to have had a good handle on this so far.

Worst case scenario would be a Sandy track with a Cat 3-4 though LF would have to be further north than S NJ. Odds of that are probably 1 in a million.

I hope everyone in the Carolinas up to VA is taking this seriously. There's a legit possibly of widespread 2'+ totals, maybe even pushing 30-35"+ if it stalls out like this, this doesn't even account for the storm surge flooding near the coast. I think this will be a larger than normal system and drive a larger, more widespread surge to many areas.

I think that's it for 90s, Flo's influence will mitigate the ridge effects and things turn cooler after she exits. Even if ridging returns afterwards, 90s become very unlikely after September 20.