SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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That one seems like a lost cause. A big phaser could be good for us with regards to the pattern in December. 12z GFS OP looked good after the big Nov 30 phaser.
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A torched Canada is still cold. EPS/GEFS look good moving forward however there's not a ton of cold to work with. I do like that they're poking further north with the ridging.
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It won't save you forever or even this winter given the prognostications.
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I'm not convinced that it's gonna be like 11-12 because the pattern is not fully coupled with the Nina. Last winter was already a 11/12 style winter. I think it'll be much more variable than people think.
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Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow.
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That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast. In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done.
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So there's some hope winter won't be dead this year?
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Is it odd that I feel better about the coming winter when all the forecasts show a snowless torch winter. It's like playing with house money.
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Something could develop off the SE coast next week under the large high in the northeast. Models hinting that could become a coastal storm or subtropical storm as it moves north.
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Phoenix Records its Hottest Summer on Record
SnoSki14 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
It's like talking to a brick wall. You could present 1000s of examples and they'll make an excuse for all of them. Don't waste your breath. -
This sucker is poised to be a major (3rd after Paulette) and I have zero doubt it'll impact the US eventually but all those island interactions will complicate things.
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That would be the one to watch. The other one near Bermuda should be a nice wave maker if it gets to major status. PNA expected to tank which means strong ridging building out east.
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I see this year as a late bloomer. Late September through October could be very active with a rather late onset of Nina conditions.
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Phoenix Records its Hottest Summer on Record
SnoSki14 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Also if we are back to the 30s-50s does that mean the Arctic was as warm and sea ice as low back then as it is now? -
Oh man get ready for another torch then. We saw how those past "favorable" analogs worked out. I think I'd feel better if every forecast called for a torchy, snowless winter right now.
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Models are all over the place but the Euro likely has the best handle on things. We'll see if there's any consistency today, of course anything beyond a few days is a total crapshoot.
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Phoenix Records its Hottest Summer on Record
SnoSki14 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Humans developed nuclear weapons that could literally destroy the atmosphere. We're responsible for mass ecological extinctions. You have to be a complete fool to think humans can't overpower natural forces but please stay ignorant. -
I'd be shocked if 99L isn't a storm by tomorrow. This is a well developed wave near peak under favorable conditions. Keep an eye out this could sneak up on models.
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There appears to be a high likelihood of a storm targeting the east coast in about 10-14 days. Too early to say if the steering pattern would allow for impacts but the trend this summer has been for increased ridging especially over NE Canada and we've already had 2 systems impact the northeast.
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Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard. Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon.
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We're already seeing a burst of activity and this is in the lull period. Looks like it'll get even uglier than I thought and that steering is brutal for the US.
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Steering pattern favorable for US landfalls, particularly ominous for gulf coast states.
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You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts.
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There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.
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The tropics will likely flip like a switch. Even now despite unfavorable conditions we're still seeing invests try to spin up. I think we'll get our next storm shortly after the 20th (21-26 most likely). It's possible we get a rogue subtropical or brief MDR storm before then but our first big time storm won't come till late August. We could see simultaneous storms in the 25th through September 15 time frame. A couple of them could be majors. After the 15th there could be another lull but another active period in late September through October is very likely.
