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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I buy this, it's a progressive pattern and the Euro has been far too slow/west lately...see TS Melissa.
  2. SnoSki14
    It's a nice little system but nothing too crazy until eastern CNE/NNE. Still it's a decent rain event with some gusty winds. I don't see any blocking so this thing should be speeding through quickly.
  3. SnoSki14
    Don is showing the reality that the upcoming winter will likely be warm. A warm, dry Oct/Nov is 2001/2011 in a nutshell and it's been a while since we had a truly warm, snowless winter. Even the past few warm winters weren't that bad in the snowfall department. I for one wouldn't mind a nice, warm snow free winter. No traffic headaches, no shoveling/ice issues, 60s during the day, sounds pretty good imo.
  4. SnoSki14
    That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely. This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan.
  5. SnoSki14
    Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there. Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up.
  6. SnoSki14
    If there's better luck than last year then it'll work out but you're playing with fire there. And I guess the Modoki Nino is pretty much useless given the Nina looking pattern the last 2 seasons. ENSO conditions, unless extreme, are becoming less relevant as the world warms.
  7. SnoSki14
    Maybe another record temperature drop in the works. From 80s to 30s in late October.
  8. SnoSki14
    Outside of tomorrow it looks fairly mild from now till Wednesday. Temps will be near 70 or better, lows in the upper 40s/low 50s. It'll get cool for like 2 days before the next big warm surge. Big bust this week.
  9. SnoSki14
    Dodged the rains to my west and east. Chilly & breezy though at only 54F. Those 70s this weekend will feel nice.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's very mild despite what people think. In years past we'd frequently see 30s to low 40s by now even near the city and we can't even drop below 50. And we're lucky to be just north enough to avoid the torrid heat the Mid-Atlantic has experienced for months. The cold is out west and the east is mild, it's been that way for a few years now and I don't see that changing with a raging Pacific jet pattern.
  11. SnoSki14
    Looking forward to the toasty weather past mid October, we should see widespread 70s and even 80s for some. I do think November turns much colder though, the last several years have had colder Novembers along with March.
  12. SnoSki14
    EPS looked quite strong and N though, wouldn't be surprised to see models shift further NW today. Regardless it looks like a cool, dreary and breezy period especially Wed-Fri. Should see, at minimum, some moderate coastal impacts due to prolonged onshore flow.
  13. SnoSki14
    Given the strength of the block, the storm should get nudged closer to the coast over time. Euro will be interesting.
  14. SnoSki14
    Laughable how different this run is vs yesterday. Must be all those nutty teleconnection shifts.
  15. SnoSki14
    Didn't take long to get back into the 80s, 82 right now.
  16. SnoSki14
    If it's AN then it's probably correct. Maybe we aren't done with 90s after all. How incredible would that be to see past mid October.
  17. SnoSki14
    Last year raindance was the only one who nailed the winter pattern and he sees evidence of another 94/95 or last year's pattern.
  18. SnoSki14
    Those nonstop lows crashing heights out west is not a good sign going forward. Seems like a continuation of the past few years with a raging Pacific jet, hopefully we see some NAO blocking to counteract it a bit.
  19. SnoSki14
    I think we'll get plenty of sunshine as the storm looks to be well offshore. Not much wind either and highs will be near normal with lows well above. Block will keep this too far away from us. No deluge this time.
  20. SnoSki14
    When is it not
  21. SnoSki14
    It certainly looks to be heading that way. A deluge would be fitting after a bone dry month.
  22. SnoSki14
    Despite today's cool down I still see a mild pattern with plenty of ridging nearby and heights crashing out west. We should be back into the mid to upper 70s by Sun or Monday. Lows will be well AN with highs hovering AN too. This was a mere pattern shift, not a big change. We'll probably have to wait till mid November or later for a big change. I suspect we'll see plenty more 75+ readings before the month ends.
  23. SnoSki14
    It's a smorgasbord of mixed signals for the upcoming winter...it could honestly go either way. What a nightmare to forecast as last year proved.
  24. SnoSki14
    It'll be 75 and sunny.
  25. SnoSki14
    It'll finally feel more like fall next few days and then they'll be more ups and downs. However nothing will come close to the heat we've experienced. Hints at more -NAO blocking mid month could signal much stormier weather. Currently 56F down from 94F yesterday.
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