Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,358

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Absolutely especially in this volatile pattern. We could end up with something similar to early December but with climo on our side and a colder airmass our region may get involved. It could also easily cut without blocking so there's that. Growing disagreement regarding MJO progression. Euro wants to fling it into phase 4/5 at a high amplitude while others keep it in the circle or at low amplitude. Early thinking is Jan 1-5 AN, Jan 6-10 are BN, Jan 11-15 probably AN. Storm possible in between.
  2. SnoSki14
    Interesting that CMC/Euro/GFS all show a similar storm around that time.
  3. SnoSki14
    Given the extreme AO flip and lag time of the MJO after it passes phase 8-1, I do think some kind of storm is possible. The AO flip mirrors the early Dec storm that slammed SNE and northern parts of the area.
  4. SnoSki14
    In hindsight these past few days have been very nice. A hoodie or light jacket is all you need. No need for bitter cold.
  5. SnoSki14
    There's a wee bit of uncertainty regarding the MJO next week. Some keep it in the COD, some are low amplitude in phases 4-5, and some are very high amplitude in those same phases. Whichever one ends up being right could determine how warm/cold January gets. Both low & high amplitude 4/5 phases will lead to an AN Jan but it'll mean the difference between +1/1.5 or +3 to +5 or better. Right now a transient cold (maybe arctic?) shot still appears likely after Jan 5.
  6. SnoSki14
    Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.
  7. SnoSki14
    I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable.
  8. SnoSki14
    At least Alaska will finally turn frigid. Once the pattern reverses we might get a huge arctic blast 2nd half of January.
  9. SnoSki14
    Many cited similarities to last year and so far it's pretty similar. I think we need a huge shake up to change this recurring pattern. We've been very fortunate over past 20 years so I'm done complaining about not getting another blockbuster winter. However I'm not looking forward to another cold, wet March/April which seems inevitable yet again.
  10. SnoSki14
    We'll get our MECS/HECS in March and another crappy, blocky spring.
  11. SnoSki14
    Feels like ever since last November mother nature's been screwing with city officials & they swallow the bait each time.
  12. SnoSki14
    I think we'll get some Atlantic blocking that pairs well a few times with a so-so Pacific + climo to give us decent snows in January.
  13. SnoSki14
    Wow was that well thought out. Good luck this season, hopefully it verifies a little more optimistic than you have particularly further south.
  14. SnoSki14
    Like Bluewave stated it's like a tiny ice cube in a massive hot ocean. I'm pretty sure you'll still get isolated cold periods for several more decades until the warmth overwhelms everything unless of course we do manage to curb our emissions over the next 30-50 years.
  15. SnoSki14
    Joe B. continues to be a complete joke. I remember him going on and on how there would be a big global cooling event for the 2010s and 20s. Every year he forecasts a big east coast winter and Northeast hurricanes. Occasionally he ends up right but so does a dead clock.
  16. SnoSki14
    And the Earth is flat too.
  17. SnoSki14
    That statement is idiotic. And literally every scientist on the planet agrees that we are the cause but do enlighten us. And Don please don't even waste your time.
  18. SnoSki14
    Wrong again or should we remove the past couple days from the data set too.
  19. SnoSki14
    Southern spots possibly though models have been trending weaker with any heat potential. Only see low 80s in my forecast.
  20. SnoSki14
    And today was the last of the 90s until next year.
  21. SnoSki14
    Wrong again
  22. SnoSki14
    Wave? More like Bob redux. I see early signs of a big trough in the Midwest and NE Canada ridging.
  23. SnoSki14
    2012 was essentially an anomalous year due to the great Arctic cyclone. This year maintained the status quo but it'll be more interesting to see what happens next year. The last few years had horrible ice recoveries vs the early 2010s and this year should be no different. A very poor recovery could lead to a new record next year.
  24. SnoSki14
    The good news is that the ice hasn't been able to beat the last record low from 7 years ago. Which could mean an ice free summer Arctic probably won't happen until the end of the 21st century.
  25. SnoSki14
    I stopped giving a rats ass about those people, they're as repugnant as anti-vaxxers or flat-earthers though having said trolls lead gov't is quite terrifying. Still even the most scientifically scholared gov'ts don't mind turning their back on what they know to be true. So at this point it's a big waiting game. Will we innovate ourselves out of GW or will GW shut us down permanently.
×
×
  • Create New...