SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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He was way off on snowfall totals around here and his March call isn't going to pan out. He was also way too cold for a majority of the country particularly the central US. He did a lot better last season imo.
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Time to wave goodbye to the non-winter of 19/20. We were due for a true clunker. It can only get better next season.
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Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point.
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The evolution for late Feb to start March looks similar to late Oct/early November. This would fit well with raindancewx's forecast actually. If this idea proves correct then March could turn out a lot colder/stormier than many are expecting. It could be a false flag but the idea of a cold end of Feb/early March is looking more likely as supported by ensembles.
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March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March.
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Nice hit for Eastern NC on the GFS.
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They have a legit shot at a moderate snow event. Anything to add to our misery.
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I agree with the 3 months of March comparison. The rainy weather has really ramped up after a rather benign January, which just ups the dreariness of it all. Don't see the active pattern ending anytime soon.
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So far there's no signs of a major pattern change for March so you could be right. However models won't pick up on the seasonal changes until late Feb. If nothing changes by Feb 20 then this pattern will stick into March. There's a possibility that April turns out to be the cold month but by then it really doesn't matter.
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This year's bug/mosquito problem could be horrendous. Lack of cold + wet weather is a recipe for disaster in the spring and summer. Also early vegetation growth in the south could be threatened with late season cold shots.
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Will probably modify into 30s and low 20s at night.
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Nah I'll pass. It would be another kick in the nuts after a horrendous winter. I hope it's warm and sunny.
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The EPO will be flipping negative and that will initially favor the west. The effects of a -PNA diminish substantially after Feb 20 and I could see the west & east both stay cold. Blocking will likely build too.
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Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.
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We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March. With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon. We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped. 92-93 is a decent analog.
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Another 80F Feb coming up?
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I honestly hope not. I'm so over this winter I don't need another cold March to ruin early Spring. I'll be happy with a 2012 March.
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If this expansion is correct which it appears to be then could winter as we know it be over? If every year will favor MJO 4-6 then what would this mean, is it a forever change or temporary?
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2011-2012 seems to be the trajectory given the CONUS wide torch and rather dry weather too. Pretty much every indicator out there screams warm/dry too. We'll def know by mid Feb. That's the last time we've had a huge dud so we're due.
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We won't even get that. It'll mostly be a stale March like airmass.
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Well peak cold, climo, and lowest sun angle didn't help one bit so far. We're good till mid March and even late March some years. After that those factors mentioned overwhelm the pattern.
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Although I think March could be decent, he's already been proven wrong on multiple occasions this season. He's just a parody of himself at this point. God and his politics & conspiracy nonsense is on another Ievel.
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And most of the CONUS + Europe. Everyone gets a torch this year. But hey at least Alaska's finally cold.
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The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).
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Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score.
