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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    It reinforces my point that there's a lack of cold present. Only NW areas will get snow/ice, probably 30+ miles from the city. SNE should score.
  2. SnoSki14
    Temps were well above the forecast this morning. Only got down to 34F. This will be an all rain event from NYC south.
  3. SnoSki14
    If NYC's temps are 35+ tomorrow morning then you aren't gonna see much.
  4. SnoSki14
    The Pacific jet pattern has really wiped out any Arctic air for us. Normally we would be seeing much colder temps right now in the wake of the last system. This should've been a good SWFE but because there's no cold air to be found we're scraping the barrel again. Anyways definitely keep an eye on temps tonight. If they're on the warmer side then the system will end up warmer. If they're colder then it'll be colder.
  5. SnoSki14
    I think we'll get some Atlantic blocking that pairs well a few times with a so-so Pacific + climo to give us decent snows in January.
  6. SnoSki14
    Not looking forward to the cold midweek. That's a potent though thankfully brief shot of arctic air. Highs in the mid 20s with lows in the mid to low teens look likely.
  7. SnoSki14
    I'd rather have rain than ice.
  8. SnoSki14
    Yeah my biggest concern is FRZA. Surface cold looks to hold around 28-31F for a long time before warming. Those just N&W could be in for a miserable travel day.
  9. SnoSki14
    A fast Pacific flow + extreme blocking is one of the best results a la 2010/2011 but that's a very rare combination. In almost every other instance you'd want a more favorable Pacific over the Atlantic. Even the worst Atlantic pattern can be saved by a good Pacific.
  10. SnoSki14
    Usually these trend north last minute but that's a pretty steep AO/NAO drop being depicted so it could actually trend south/colder as we get closer.
  11. SnoSki14
    Gonna have to watch that closely. I think ice is a much bigger concern obviously as surface temps will be very slow to warm.
  12. SnoSki14
    The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.
  13. SnoSki14
    GFS showing more front end snows next week. Surface cold is quite strong.
  14. SnoSki14
    Nam showing 2.5-4" amounts in eastern sections. The train of Pacific driven storms seems endless this month.
  15. SnoSki14
    And the Euro washes any hope away.
  16. SnoSki14
    That's a shame, but I guess the last rainstorm really cleared you guys out.
  17. SnoSki14
    EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other.
  18. SnoSki14
    If I had a dollar for every fantasy blizzard... Do not go beyond 4-5 days in this pattern. Next week is still a toss up. If blocking ends up stronger then it'll hold the 50/50 in place and we'd get a good front end hit. Seems possible with AO trending downward.
  19. SnoSki14
    If blocking does trend stronger than next week's system will act more like a SWFE. GFS trending in that direction now. The MJO failing to enter warmer phases has helped in that regard. However it won't take much for the system to cut and that's what I still favor atm.
  20. SnoSki14
    If you like a lot of winter rain then this is the pattern for you. I suppose there's a chance the weekend storm acts as a 50/50 for the following system but there's no block around to hold the 50/50 in place so tough luck.
  21. SnoSki14
    Like I said you'd be lucky to get an inch. This is just another grass/car topper nothing more. Wake me up when there's an actual threat coming.
  22. SnoSki14
    Similar to the last little event. Nice coating on everything. I guess it's better than nothing.
  23. SnoSki14
    Nice car topper with grassy surfaces getting covered. Rates aren't the best though.
  24. SnoSki14
    It'll probably be an inch on grassy and colder surfaces, that's what the HRRR is indicating at least. There's still a pretty hefty chunk of moisture to go through.
  25. SnoSki14
    MJO avoiding the warmer phases thus far, some have it looping around toward the better phases from the circle last week of December. This is noticeably different than last year which had it going through 4-6 and lingering there for weeks. This could be why a -AO/neutral NAO are showing up 2nd half of December. Personally I'm a fan of this progression and it's why January could be a surprisingly good month.
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