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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Is there such thing as overdue though. Maybe next year is another clunker or maybe it's a blockbuster. We've had clunkers in the past and they didn't suddenly create a string of BN snowfall years. How quickly people forget. 11/12 was followed by a near normal winter, which was then followed by another string of AN snowy winters.
  2. SnoSki14
    They'll shift everyday because they don't know whether to rely on Nino or Nina forcing. That's why models have been useless past 3 days. I highly doubt it's a warm Spring, EPO is still in negative territory, SSTs are cold, huge cold & snow pack in eastern Canada. Probably another strong backdoor season.
  3. SnoSki14
    Surface temps don't look that warm though and the PNA starts rising again after going negative. I think the Nino like conditions will help tone down the SE ridging too. It is a bizarre pattern though, too many cooks in the kitchen.
  4. SnoSki14
    Yeah and yet several people dismissed its impacts. The MJO has been huge all season and finally it's about to enter the elusive phase 8. EPS continues to look good with the phase 8/1 move.
  5. SnoSki14
    You said quick sleet to rain transition and that's not the case. I'm going to pick up 2"+ of sleet/snow.
  6. SnoSki14
    Actually have snow mixing in, so that's a bit surprising.
  7. SnoSki14
    Things will get particularly rough after 3-4 pm when the sun starts getting lower. I don't expect temps to budge much from now till then.
  8. SnoSki14
    Nice system on the Gfs, looks like two shortwaves that could impact us.
  9. SnoSki14
    Sleet always appears faster in these setups and low level temps always end up colder. Now I'm wondering if it's mainly a sleet storm or does ZR show up.
  10. SnoSki14
    It was pretty obvious this would mainly be a sleet/ZR storm.
  11. SnoSki14
    Yes I think it was warranted. In fact conditions will be more dangerous due to the icy conditions expected. HRRR has been trending colder and colder too.
  12. SnoSki14
    It's gonna be a problem scouring out the low level cold, dews for many places are still in the low 20s or even teens. I expect the ice to linger a lot longer than expected.
  13. SnoSki14
    Snow/sleet mix right now, very breezy. It's 30/22, roads will be a mess as I expect temps to drop into the 20s.
  14. SnoSki14
    I buy the overrunning potential, but you gotta watch that SE ridge. If it ends up stronger than normal then we're cooked. On the other hand, a strong westerly wind burst could boost the subtropical jet and prevent the SE ridging from screwing us over. Either way time is not on our side, we have about a month left of wintry potential.
  15. SnoSki14
    Inland areas are in for a huge mess tomorrow. HRRR has them mainly in the 20s with hours of sleet/ZR. The current dews in the teens are a red flag that the surface will stay colder and longer than forecast. Very little snow with this now.
  16. SnoSki14
    RGEM trending colder at the surface, that's my biggest concern. It'll be a big problem just west of the city. I don't think we'll see much snow out of this.
  17. SnoSki14
    It also produces the equivalent of a massive and broad area of lower pressures near the 50/50 spot. We could easily score as long as the SE ridging isn't terribly strong. There's a massive supply of cold air to our N&W as well and it'll be plenty active too, no cold & suppressed worries.
  18. SnoSki14
    I'm still waiting for the global cooling that he's been promising for years. Oh and our 1938 hurricane redux.
  19. SnoSki14
    If you remove Nov, I've had 4 dustings to date which wouldn't even equal an inch when combined. 2" would feel like 2' this winter.
  20. SnoSki14
    HRRR showing classic cold air damming for the region. Surface may be in the 20s with snow/sleet falling for several hours. Could be a nightmare of a morning commute.
  21. SnoSki14
    Worst winter I've ever experienced, it's been an abomination. Everything that could go wrong did, and I can't wait till it's over.
  22. SnoSki14
    Probably not, dews in the teens right now. This is substantially different than the MLK system. Also the first system will lay down some snow in our southern regions, which will add to the cooling factor overall. Probably not the case inland, this has icy mess written all over it particularly 20-30 miles west of the city.
  23. SnoSki14
    I'll pass on a sleet storm, it'll just cause unnecessary travel headaches. I hope it just rains at this point.
  24. SnoSki14
    I was hoping this would just be all rain, I'd rather have that than a mixed, messy bag of slop.
  25. SnoSki14
    This ain't the MLK storm. The high is much stronger and better placed. We shall see then. Also don't dismiss those just inland and away from the city.
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