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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Anything beyond a certain time frame should always be taken with a grain of salt. And given how crappy the winter has gone it could only go up from here.
  2. SnoSki14
    Well it does just not quite when we want it. Is November/March considered winter? Oh well hope everyone enjoys their March HECS this year.
  3. SnoSki14
    I meant 500mb, geez just take the compliment. Relax it's just the weather.
  4. SnoSki14
    Don't worry the pattern change is coming. Have faith in PB.
  5. SnoSki14
    But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run.
  6. SnoSki14
    Yeesh was that an ugly Euro run. Better hope that rolls back. The 850s look like April for the entire country.
  7. SnoSki14
    We get crazy anomalies now and then. The Jan monthly record has yet to be topped and I believe it occured in the 1930s.
  8. SnoSki14
    I've liked February to produce but wasn't sure if we'd see a classic Nino response. It's nice that the models are showing it now. It doesn't guarantee anything of course but our chances are good.
  9. SnoSki14
    That's why I believe we'll get something in early Feb particularly once that ridge pulls back from us. It's classic Nino that's very favorable for snows here in February. All I said was the MJO may stay in 7, which by the way is good for us. Today's plots also show more negativity in the AO/NAO domains in response to that spike and subsequent Canadian ridging. Another good sign for an early Feb snow event.
  10. SnoSki14
    And FWIW it doesn't really get that cold either after the pattern change. It's about 5 degrees below normal for maybe 4 days before warmer air returns. The GFS has been garbage with it showing nonsense LR snowstorms and frigid temps. Euro much closer to reality. Despite this I do think we'll see something beginning of February. The EPS is not a bad look.
  11. SnoSki14
    If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking.
  12. SnoSki14
    The MJO is now unlikely to enter phase 8-1 like you said. The pattern is still changing but in a different way than forecast.
  13. SnoSki14
    Do like that we'll be seeing more of a Nino response heading into Feb. That should make things at least somewhat interesting.
  14. SnoSki14
    Well if it's Euro vs GFS we already know who will win. EPS didn't look terrible to me on the pattern going forward.
  15. SnoSki14
    We've barely hit mid-winter. Peak winter cold is from now until 1st week of Feb. Mid Winter runs from now through President's day and late winter post PD through the rest of Feb and March. This varies to me based on location. It's a little different for me in NJ than you guys in SNE/CNE & especially NNE.
  16. SnoSki14
    It really puts things into perspective just how spectacularly warm 2007 was. Would be nice to follow that into Feb/March.
  17. SnoSki14
    It does look Nino-esque. Would be nice if it translated for February.
  18. SnoSki14
    Euro OP pretty much torches the whole country after the 22nd so that's fun to look at.
  19. SnoSki14
    Though Thursday night and Friday temps aren't anything too cold for January, you'll definitely feel it given how warm its been. Another 50F+ today.
  20. SnoSki14
    JB continues to look more and more foolish each day.
  21. SnoSki14
    If the pattern doesn't support snow then it won't happen. MJO 5/6 is a big SE ridge signal so we shouldn't be shocked it trended more amped.
  22. SnoSki14
    There remain a lot of similarities to last year with subtle differences that make things seem new. I think Jan/Feb will swap places with last year's Jan/Feb where Jan 2020 ends up as the torch month while Feb is near normal. I still feel mid to late Feb and March will bring the majority of BN temps and snow as Atlantic blocking finally shows itself in a big way.
  23. SnoSki14
    Tbf the models did back off of the MJO heading towards 8. The Euro actually has it circling back towards 6 for early Feb, which would be a disaster for winter lovers. Hopefully it's wrong but the Euro did nail the phase 4/5 trajectory. Don mentioned its accuracy isn't as good coming out of those phases so the jury is still out. However if it's correct then we'd only have a 2 week wintry stretch from this weekend into 1st week of February before the warmth returns.
  24. SnoSki14
    We're finally paying for all those blockbuster years though I don't think this winter will be a wash. Not looking forward to the cold later this week though. I'm already longing for spring after last weekend's beautiful weather.
  25. SnoSki14
    Saturdays event likely marks the start of our new pattern. I think a 2-4" front-ender still looks reasonable. There's another threat near the 23/24 that'll bear watching. Beyond that things will continue to trend even better. Record amplitude MJO could really help activate the subtropical jet as widespread cold descends on us. Nino response with phase 8 in Feb would scream KU potential.
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