SnoSki14

Why are people so negative, you guys will score a nice event.

I buy the warm cutter right now. I feel better about the system after that, tellies look better after mid-month. I am hoping for a strong GFS esque cutter, it could really bring the cold air down for the next system.

That's possible, the only thing preventing a rainy cutter is that high to our N/NE. My worry is surface temps, models almost always go warmer than what actually occurs. Nam does well here. Also if we get some snow from the first wave tomorrow then it'll lead to a colder surface, that may be why the Nam is so much colder.

Probably a result of the EPS showing a phase 8 MJO. The pattern overall is rather crappy, telleconnections aren't good for snow. But it's so active and cold up north that all it takes is a perfectly timed shortwave and we'll get some frozen. It is still Feb after all.

You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s. That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover.

There'll definitely be more ice/sleet than snow. Surface temps will struggle to hit freezing.

These strange oddities have worked in our favor in past winters. I think last year winter had well AN temps but AN snowfalls. Unfortunately the reverse happened this time.

I wonder if we'll actually get some spring weather during the real spring months of March & April, it's been a struggle as of late. In fact last year Feb & March literally switched places.

It's really not, but I get it you're a huge troll.

A winter of winners and losers, today's lucky winner: Seattle. They might see their snowiest winter in years.

There's also a lag that takes place. Plus there's still a discrepancy as to when the MJO gets to phase 8 and beyond. I noticed today's EPS is stalling it right near phase 7/8 for a few days, bad sign if true. Last year the MJO went through favorable phases in mid Feb but we didn't see the effects till March. The upcoming storm is also occurring before the more favorable MJO phases would settle in. AO will be positive as well.

If that's true then spring can't get here fast enough. I know I'm ready to move past this horror show of a winter. But then again the models have been garbage outside 3 days. If we don't see any more snow the rest of winter then it'll be the worst met winter I've ever experienced. Yes worse than 01/02 and 11/12 due to the constant teases, the atrocious forecasts, the near normal temps and the well AN precip that was 99.99% rain. At least those winters were nice, dry & warm.

The run to run continuity on the models is the worst I've ever seen. The difference between tonight's Euro and the 12z Euro is staggering. Idk what's going on.

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could pick up a few inches with the 1st wave as per the GGEM/Nam. Crazy to think those places are doing much better than a good chunk of this area.

The run to run continuity on the Gfs is abysmal after 3 days. The first wave could surprise us as well.

Mostly 50s tomorrow, front comes through early, lots of low clouds. The big warm-up turned out to be earlier this week where upper 60s were reached.

The high will keep the surface cold, could mean more sleet/ice.

Respectfully disagree, I think the confluence will shred that primary apart. Just look at the Ukmet. It's not horrible at all. You don't need a -NAO/+PNA, the -EPO is causing a lot of confluence that will shred that primary and cause it to trend further south. AO goes positive but tanks before mid-month. MJO may be in phase 8. It's not an ideal setup obviously and I think it'll play out as a SWFE with a snow to ice to rain setup. However given the strong high to the north, temps may not rise above freezing so Snow to Ice may be more likely. I'm thinking it'll be a 3-6 front-ender rn. All models have trended towards a much weaker, colder, strung out system, which would be a lot better for us.

Not surprisingly the Gfs is coming back to its senses. The raging cutter solution is very unlikely to verify.

Yeah I don't buy that for a second. At worst it's a SWFE and at best what the Para Gfs showed.

The GEFS is doing too much with it, it did that back in December/Jan too, which is why I don't buy that huge cutter. EPS has the right depiction and I expect the OP to correct the track over time. Para looks more accurate than anything.

I'm not worried what the op models show 5+ days out, most of it is garbage anyway.

It's nonsense, Gfs stalls the MJO in phase 7 too long. Anything past Day 3-5 is garbage and there's zero continuity run to run.

Yes but that's likely due to the unfavorable MJO. The MJO has mostly stayed in phases that amplified SE ridges. For those few days it was in phase 8 or 2/3, suppression happened, so hopefully we get a happy medium.

On the other hand it could also prevent suppression but yeah cutters have been the biggest concerns.