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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Bring it on, 70s or bust!
  2. SnoSki14
    As mild as the 1st half of Jan looks, the 2nd half could be record breaking. If those teleconnections are correct we'll likely have a large eastern ridge in place and for a very long time. Some signs of that already from today's models. A top 5 record warm January for parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast wouldn't surprise me.
  3. SnoSki14
    Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination. Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes.
  4. SnoSki14
    Yup and then we'll be asleep till late Feb/March. The pattern has now gotten so predictable that you could pretty much guarantee another blocky late winter/early spring and torch Jan/Feb.
  5. SnoSki14
    This is true and a phase 4/5 entrance is probable. Some signs of a -EPO emerging too.
  6. SnoSki14
    Absolutely especially in this volatile pattern. We could end up with something similar to early December but with climo on our side and a colder airmass our region may get involved. It could also easily cut without blocking so there's that. Growing disagreement regarding MJO progression. Euro wants to fling it into phase 4/5 at a high amplitude while others keep it in the circle or at low amplitude. Early thinking is Jan 1-5 AN, Jan 6-10 are BN, Jan 11-15 probably AN. Storm possible in between.
  7. SnoSki14
    Interesting that CMC/Euro/GFS all show a similar storm around that time.
  8. SnoSki14
    Given the extreme AO flip and lag time of the MJO after it passes phase 8-1, I do think some kind of storm is possible. The AO flip mirrors the early Dec storm that slammed SNE and northern parts of the area.
  9. SnoSki14
    In hindsight these past few days have been very nice. A hoodie or light jacket is all you need. No need for bitter cold.
  10. SnoSki14
    There's a wee bit of uncertainty regarding the MJO next week. Some keep it in the COD, some are low amplitude in phases 4-5, and some are very high amplitude in those same phases. Whichever one ends up being right could determine how warm/cold January gets. Both low & high amplitude 4/5 phases will lead to an AN Jan but it'll mean the difference between +1/1.5 or +3 to +5 or better. Right now a transient cold (maybe arctic?) shot still appears likely after Jan 5.
  11. SnoSki14
    Pattern progression has been almost identical to last season. I'd be shocked if March/April were warm.
  12. SnoSki14
    Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.
  13. SnoSki14
    I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable.
  14. SnoSki14
    I'm hoping we can avoid the cold if it's gonna be snowless. So far that looks to be the case. There's a chance some cold gets in 2nd week of January but that's a long ways out and the GFS has consistently been too cold in the LR.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yeah March, given how eerily identical the pattern progression has been I'd be shocked if March/April weren't cold/wet.
  16. SnoSki14
    With the holidays ending and the warmth upon us, I'm already longing for spring. Luckily the days will be getting longer now. Teleconnections say we should expect AN to well AN temperatures for weeks on end. Do not buy the nonsense GFS week 2 forecasts, as Bluewave has posted numerous times, they always underestimate the SE ridging. Unless the Pacific pattern completely changes, expect more of the same.
  17. SnoSki14
    The warm weather is not a horror show, I just wish it didn't rain.
  18. SnoSki14
    MJO may briefly make a phase 8 appearance around New Year's so maybe someone can sneak in something. Big AO transition too usually yields storminess.
  19. SnoSki14
    At least Alaska will finally turn frigid. Once the pattern reverses we might get a huge arctic blast 2nd half of January.
  20. SnoSki14
    Many cited similarities to last year and so far it's pretty similar. I think we need a huge shake up to change this recurring pattern. We've been very fortunate over past 20 years so I'm done complaining about not getting another blockbuster winter. However I'm not looking forward to another cold, wet March/April which seems inevitable yet again.
  21. SnoSki14
    I'm loving it, it's like an extended early spring. Have no use for dry, bitter cold. Not sure it stays dry though with Pacific jet on steroids.
  22. SnoSki14
    Soaring AO/NAO, positive EPO, MJO near warm phases. It's a torch recipe. You can close the shades for many weeks. Gorgeous day today, so much better than last week's cold.
  23. SnoSki14
    The death vortex over Alaska is all I need to know that things are going to suck. The entire CONUS looks torched too. Uncertain when or if any of that cold building over Alaska comes south.
  24. SnoSki14
    MJO now going into phase 6/7 and looping back to 6. This would be a disaster if you want winter weather. AO/NAO now forecast to rage positive. So no cold air or snow is in sight for the foreseeable future.
  25. SnoSki14
    I'm good with 40s & 50s for the winter. Luckily we don't get a lot of prolonged cold spells anymore. If it's not gonna snow then it might as well be mild/dry.
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