
SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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But but I was promised a 1/20 pattern change with the MJO heading towards phase 8. I'm sure the runs with change but yeesh was this a winter cancel run.
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Yeesh was that an ugly Euro run. Better hope that rolls back. The 850s look like April for the entire country. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
We get crazy anomalies now and then. The Jan monthly record has yet to be topped and I believe it occured in the 1930s. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
I've liked February to produce but wasn't sure if we'd see a classic Nino response. It's nice that the models are showing it now. It doesn't guarantee anything of course but our chances are good. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
That's why I believe we'll get something in early Feb particularly once that ridge pulls back from us. It's classic Nino that's very favorable for snows here in February. All I said was the MJO may stay in 7, which by the way is good for us. Today's plots also show more negativity in the AO/NAO domains in response to that spike and subsequent Canadian ridging. Another good sign for an early Feb snow event. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
And FWIW it doesn't really get that cold either after the pattern change. It's about 5 degrees below normal for maybe 4 days before warmer air returns. The GFS has been garbage with it showing nonsense LR snowstorms and frigid temps. Euro much closer to reality. Despite this I do think we'll see something beginning of February. The EPS is not a bad look. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
The MJO is now unlikely to enter phase 8-1 like you said. The pattern is still changing but in a different way than forecast. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Do like that we'll be seeing more of a Nino response heading into Feb. That should make things at least somewhat interesting. -
Well if it's Euro vs GFS we already know who will win. EPS didn't look terrible to me on the pattern going forward.
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We've barely hit mid-winter. Peak winter cold is from now until 1st week of Feb. Mid Winter runs from now through President's day and late winter post PD through the rest of Feb and March. This varies to me based on location. It's a little different for me in NJ than you guys in SNE/CNE & especially NNE.
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
It really puts things into perspective just how spectacularly warm 2007 was. Would be nice to follow that into Feb/March. -
It does look Nino-esque. Would be nice if it translated for February.
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Euro OP pretty much torches the whole country after the 22nd so that's fun to look at.
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Though Thursday night and Friday temps aren't anything too cold for January, you'll definitely feel it given how warm its been. Another 50F+ today. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
JB continues to look more and more foolish each day. -
Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
If the pattern doesn't support snow then it won't happen. MJO 5/6 is a big SE ridge signal so we shouldn't be shocked it trended more amped.- 1,119 replies
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
There remain a lot of similarities to last year with subtle differences that make things seem new. I think Jan/Feb will swap places with last year's Jan/Feb where Jan 2020 ends up as the torch month while Feb is near normal. I still feel mid to late Feb and March will bring the majority of BN temps and snow as Atlantic blocking finally shows itself in a big way. -
January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Tbf the models did back off of the MJO heading towards 8. The Euro actually has it circling back towards 6 for early Feb, which would be a disaster for winter lovers. Hopefully it's wrong but the Euro did nail the phase 4/5 trajectory. Don mentioned its accuracy isn't as good coming out of those phases so the jury is still out. However if it's correct then we'd only have a 2 week wintry stretch from this weekend into 1st week of February before the warmth returns. -
We're finally paying for all those blockbuster years though I don't think this winter will be a wash. Not looking forward to the cold later this week though. I'm already longing for spring after last weekend's beautiful weather.
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Saturdays event likely marks the start of our new pattern. I think a 2-4" front-ender still looks reasonable. There's another threat near the 23/24 that'll bear watching. Beyond that things will continue to trend even better. Record amplitude MJO could really help activate the subtropical jet as widespread cold descends on us. Nino response with phase 8 in Feb would scream KU potential.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
GFS more in line with Euro. Does hint at a secondary developing east of the Delmarva, we'll have to see if that becomes a trend as it would likely allow cold air to linger longer.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
It's better than nothing. The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us.- 1,119 replies
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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I've yet to have snow cover for over 12 hours so yeah it's been pitiful.- 1,119 replies
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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
SnoSki14 replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Yes and they let up on the cold around the 23/24th for a few days. There's some transient ridging in the east around that time. That could change of course.