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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The fears are being realized. We're only a couple ticks away from a rain event and there's still 3 days left. Lack of PNA really hurting us.
  2. SnoSki14
    It's possible the inland solutions correct east as the storm starts forming and begins heading our way.
  3. SnoSki14
    Hopefully it's correct. How's its skill level been?
  4. SnoSki14
    And then there's the Gfs lol
  5. SnoSki14
    That's sleet or rain. You ain't seeing snow with a low that far inland.
  6. SnoSki14
    I don't like where things are going. That shortwave is no joke and models appear to be backing off the confluence.
  7. SnoSki14
    Hopefully that's the case. I think it'll be very difficult to warm the surface unless the storm is on top of us.
  8. SnoSki14
    Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.
  9. SnoSki14
    Definitely expect some snow in the nearby suburbs though.
  10. SnoSki14
    Euro would def give us some coastal flooding/wind issues.
  11. SnoSki14
    Definitely. I don't care about playing the jackpot games though. My area had basically nothing last winter so even 6"+ would be a huge win especially in a season where every major forecaster called for a snowless, torch winter.
  12. SnoSki14
    I'd be weary of the overly amped runs too given the strength and placement of the high. Hopefully we all cash in though. I do think the GFS was way too suppressed.
  13. SnoSki14
    Just keep in mind the Euro tends to overamplify systems while the Gfs can be more suppressed. I'll take a mix of the two for now and see what happens next couple days. NYC metro looks good even if it takes a more amped track.
  14. SnoSki14
    It's either gonna rain or snow, I don't see much sleet with this.
  15. SnoSki14
    It looks good to me.
  16. SnoSki14
    We thought the same would happen with some of those 09/10 storms but you can't deny the confluence. Granted the poor PNA would argue for a slight northerly component.
  17. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's why I didn't buy those overly amped runs.
  18. SnoSki14
    That's why strong -NAO/AO blocking is actually more favorable for us and the mid-atlantic than them. Sometimes it's even better for those south of the NYC metro.
  19. SnoSki14
    Yup agreed they should hope the storm trends stronger to buckle the confluence a bit.
  20. SnoSki14
    Incredibly consistent with the track/outcome from all major models. It's unlikely this changes that much.
  21. SnoSki14
    Best case scenario is 3-5" and models will struggle with due to the progressive pattern. They might not get it right until the storm is actually occurring.
  22. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's not an apples to apples comparison.
  23. SnoSki14
    I think people are underestimating this event. Yes it's very marginal but models have been trending stronger with this turning into a fast moving coastal. Could be a nice paste job just outside the city.
  24. SnoSki14
    Ensembles are steady run to run so I think it's just noise. However the risk of a tucked in solution is out there.
  25. SnoSki14
    Some of these tucked in lows have produced the most in the past if the right setup/airmass is in place. Hoping for a nice Euro run tonight to round things up.
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