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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.
  2. SnoSki14
    I sense an extreme reversal of the record breaking +AO/NAO pattern. Extreme flips are the new normal. Expect a few snowy nor'easters and bitterly cold temps for March. Enjoy!
  3. SnoSki14
    We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March. With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon. We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped. 92-93 is a decent analog.
  4. SnoSki14
    Another 80F Feb coming up?
  5. SnoSki14
    Insane we might have another top 5 warmest Feb on record.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's literally been trolling winter lovers all season and yet ppl keep taking the bait.
  7. SnoSki14
    Met winter is most definitely dead. The AO could hit a new record soon, an absurd +6 or better. NAO will also be rising and PNA will tank. Only good news is the EPO will drop but that tends to favor the west first. MJO isn't helpful whatsoever. So given all that I think models will trend stronger with the SE ridging and push the gradient further north. This is a God awful winter pattern and it would be a miracle for it to suddenly reverse heading into March.
  8. SnoSki14
    If Euros huge cutter idea is correct then even they may not see much or at the very least it'll all be washed away.
  9. SnoSki14
    It could just be another BS GFS run. Unless the Euro shows something similar there's no reason to bite on anything.
  10. SnoSki14
    I honestly hope not. I'm so over this winter I don't need another cold March to ruin early Spring. I'll be happy with a 2012 March.
  11. SnoSki14
    Unbelievable not one day is forecast to drop below freezing next 10-15 days. Also looks like a rainy, dreary pattern could set up with the gradient like pattern with highs mostly in the mid to upper 40s. Really ugly if that's true. I'll take warm/dry over that any day. Probably another top 10 warmest month.
  12. SnoSki14
    If this expansion is correct which it appears to be then could winter as we know it be over? If every year will favor MJO 4-6 then what would this mean, is it a forever change or temporary?
  13. SnoSki14
    2011-2012 seems to be the trajectory given the CONUS wide torch and rather dry weather too. Pretty much every indicator out there screams warm/dry too. We'll def know by mid Feb. That's the last time we've had a huge dud so we're due.
  14. SnoSki14
    Somehow I doubt that. The raging AO/NAO are due to flip right around March. Should make for an ugly early spring.
  15. SnoSki14
    I'd frankly be shocked if we didn't see 60s Mon-Wed of next week. 850mb anomalies are well AN and our averages are about to go up.
  16. SnoSki14
    Just wait till that extreme winter warmth shows up in the summer. We're due for another record breaking July/August heat wave/s. Also expect 60s early Feb.
  17. SnoSki14
    We won't even get that. It'll mostly be a stale March like airmass.
  18. SnoSki14
    Well peak cold, climo, and lowest sun angle didn't help one bit so far. We're good till mid March and even late March some years. After that those factors mentioned overwhelm the pattern.
  19. SnoSki14
    Although I think March could be decent, he's already been proven wrong on multiple occasions this season. He's just a parody of himself at this point. God and his politics & conspiracy nonsense is on another Ievel.
  20. SnoSki14
    This month and probably Feb are extended Marches essentially.
  21. SnoSki14
    And most of the CONUS + Europe. Everyone gets a torch this year. But hey at least Alaska's finally cold.
  22. SnoSki14
    The status quo looks to continue as far as the eyes can see. If a major change is going to happen it'll be in late Feb (Isotherm has nailed it so far). It would not shock me if March ends up being colder/snowier than met winter (the bar is very low).
  23. SnoSki14
    Except the 80s were cold & dry.
  24. SnoSki14
    At this point I just want full-on spring weather. I'm over this pathetic winter but do appreciate the lack of arctic cold.
  25. SnoSki14
    Flow is fast and there's no blocking so it's very unlikely this keeps shifting west. A miss to the east is more likely imo. Surface on GFS indicates possible paste job but bc it's flying & bombing too late New England is more likely to score.
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