SnoSki14

By mid Feb we'll know enough whether to write off winter completely or not. If it's this same ole 10+ day out song & dance then the rest of winter is more likely to follow the early 2010s late winter patterns. Arctic air will have to start getting involved post Feb 15 otherwise even a perfect track won't matter. That +EPO needs to flip.

I think we'll see a late phase where parts of eastern New England and especially eastern Canada will benefit. Although impressive the PNA spike will likely not be enough to counteract the lack of Atlantic blocking. The flow is way too fast and unless things change next 2-3 days I don't think we'll score.

Hopefully the ridge out west trends stronger otherwise it'll never phase or it'll be too late. Plenty of time for things to change though.

The storm has been on the charts for a while so it's definitely legit. But there's no room for error. The track has to be perfect and the storm has to bomb out because the antecedent airmass is garbage. I'd give it a 10% chance for us to score.

Probably the only chance until late Feb. Models showing SE ridge response after Feb 5 likely due to phase 6 brief MJO passage.

Only if you can promise me a warm/dry March & April.

Agree though things should improve as we go through February. The late winter comeback has been the theme lately.

I'm not even gonna think about this until 3-4 days out. The signal for a storm is there though. Many things have to go right however.

Everything that could've gone wrong went wrong so far. We had a massive +EPO flip, zero Atlantic blocking, very cold and stable PV in the Arctic, essentially a -PDO/PNA. That's why the entire country + Europe is well above normal and Alaska's cold finally. It's very reminiscent of 11/12 & 01/02 though with the Nino influence & split flow pattern it'll be more active. Time will time if anything will truly change soon.

You really need the PNA to deliver. I believe that's how we got the Feb 2006 KU storm. If the +PNA is too flat then you get a messy system and without an arctic airmass in place you're pretty much toast.

There's some legitimacy regarding next week's threat. There's a strong +PNA spike ahead of the storm and a Hudson block in place to try to force the storm south of us. We'll also be seeing the MJO 7 lag effects. However without a true -NAO block this can easily cut too. I'm leaning towards a coastal runner right now. It would take tremendous luck for us to score.

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter.

Well the climo clock is about to start ticking soon so something better change quick.

Models really like the Jan 31 through Feb 2 time frame for storminess. There's a good +PNA spike ahead of it that helps with the two branches phasing. GFS has consistently shown some sort of east coast storm for 5+ consecutive runs now. A bombing coastal is one way to get snow in a poor airmass.

A huge pick-up in activity due to the split flow means we're probably not gonna follow the warm/dry winters. True blocking remains elusive but the Hudson ridge could trigger a -NAO response. I wouldn't entirely dismiss the threats for next week. We do get a +PNA and though the airmass isn't very cold, it can still work out at peak cold climo. Of course we also want coastal tracks, not inland like this weekend. It's probable the MJO emerges at phase 1/2 after Feb 5-10 so pattern should gradually continue to improve after 1st week of Feb. The Alaskan vortex will likely weaken and we may see ridging extend from the Hudson to the typical NAO regions. This all should give us a decent Feb 15 to Mar 15 period.

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. With a lot of luck something good could come out of this.

Marginal air could work though this time of year, it worked in 2006. You just need to get very lucky with everything else. The +PNA is definitely a plus. We're also finally seeing the Nino response which works out well in February so not all is lost.

And we end up with very blase weather pattern that's not exactly a torch but too warm to give us snow. So basically typical March in late Jan.

A lot of our biggest snow events occurred when the wave collapsed in the circle. I think we have a better shot at blocking when the MJO isn't in control. My guess is that the PV starts taking shots after 1st week of February. Idk if a SSW will occur but it doesn't necessarily have to for us to go into a blocking pattern. The long standing +NAO/AO will have to eventually reverse too but that probably won't happen until we see seasonal effects with changing wavelengths + the attacks on the PV. Late winter remains the best opportunity for us to get snows especially if the Nino subtropical jet sticks around.

It could go one of two ways, either it follows the early 2010s warm/dry March pattern or the cold/snowy late 2010s pattern. Given the identical resemblance to last year, Nino status, MJO, NAO/AO parameters from Oct till now & a cold November/near normal December and now warm Jan/Feb? it seems more likely we'll follow the late 2010s pattern. We'll have to see if a SSW event starts showing up by mid Feb as that would guarantee a cold/blocky March/April.

You guys will see 20-30+" from Feb 15 through April 1st. Expect a massive Greenland block after mid February into March. The pattern is following the same beats as past several seasons.

Yeah it's been wonderful. A ruined winter followed by a ruined early spring. I guess snow is snow even if it's gone the next day though those 4 March noreasters from a few years back were fun to track. Too bad the big 1/20 pattern change barely produced.

The MJO should be a non-factor at such low amplitudes & as it remains in the circle. However agree that it may emerge anywhere from 8-2 by mid Feb. We've seen a mostly sustained +NAO/AO period which will almost surely flip in about a month or so. I suppose we could follow years like 11/12 where spring takes hold early but that doesn't fit the current regime.

Well climo isn't working for us now and our biggest snows have recently been in November/March.

Yeah I buy the coastal flooding risks.