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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Not if there's a strong block in place. Large 50/50 low is allowing the high to hold to our north. A strong high like that will stop the low from cutting. We see it time and time again with SWFEs.
  2. SnoSki14
    Wave 1 could trend more amped because blocking pattern hasn't set up and poor pacific favors it trending NW. However by the time wave 2 happens you have strong blocking in place and it favors a hard stop to ENE track once the low is off the Delmarva. A whiff is more likely with wave 2 than it cutting.
  3. SnoSki14
    Good mix between the more offshore models and the more wound up Euro. EPS still more relevant than OP runs though.
  4. SnoSki14
    Pretty solid stuff coming in. Ensembles looking really nice. You might see models with a more offshore position for a bit but then they'll amp things up as we get closer like with the last coastal. Luckily we have a much better airmass in place this time.
  5. SnoSki14
    Best to go with GEFS/EPS until it gets closer. 6-7 days is still a long time and OP runs are gonna jump around. I wouldn't stress on the details just yet.
  6. SnoSki14
    They were inland yesterday. I expect them to shuffle back and forth but things look good right now for a miller B. Nice high to our north with 50/50 low.
  7. SnoSki14
    Do you have an analysis up or will you be posting one?
  8. SnoSki14
    Setup is pretty good for a classic miller B type storm. GEFS agree with OP. I wouldn't sweat too much about the run to run changes as long as the core pattern remains in place. Wave one still worth watching too for a light event.
  9. SnoSki14
    Where did that big Siberian/Arctic block come from? There was nothing there a few days ago.
  10. SnoSki14
    My worry is that the collapse of the PNA could cause the storm to cut more inland and that we have a marginal airmass in place. We got a coastal track with the last storm due to the +PNA but had little cold air. There'll be more cold this time around but no PNA. Will the Atlantic blocking be strong enough to negate it.
  11. SnoSki14
    We lose the PNA so there'll be a tendency for storms to cut. That's guaranteed if the Atlantic blocking isn't as strong as forecast though the progressive nature of the Pacific driven pattern could offset that to an extent.
  12. SnoSki14
    EPS showing stronger Atlantic blocking and starts to bring the PNA back a bit, which would make it less likely for systems to cut. Airmass is still meh but Canada looks cold.
  13. SnoSki14
    The upcoming pattern isn't that bad at all. It's a lot better than I expected given all the doom and gloom forecasts.
  14. SnoSki14
    Oh god you know all the Twitter weenies are going to post the CMC.
  15. SnoSki14
    The pattern is like a poor man's version of 2010. There's decent Atlantic blocking but not strong enough to overcome the poor Nina Pacific.
  16. SnoSki14
    Light snow falling
  17. SnoSki14
    Bluewave always with the accurate response to rain on the weenie parade. Pacific puke looks to dominate rest of the month. We'd have to be lucky to score with such a putrid airmass over us. Odds would improve in January.
  18. SnoSki14
    The Dec 13-20 could give us something. Like a SWFE with a late coastal transfer, SNE is in a better position than us of course.
  19. SnoSki14
    The Pacific is much more important for cold & snow than the Atlantic, that's always been the case. I'd rather have a -EPO/+PNA with a +AO/NAO. However having a -AO/NAO at least gives an accidental chance of getting snow even if the Pacific is garbage.
  20. SnoSki14
    We'll probably have record high cover in March or April lol
  21. SnoSki14
    You can add the rogue SNE hurricane to that list too.
  22. SnoSki14
    I think if late Dec through late Jan can't give us anything then we'll probably challenge the record low snowfall years. However a crazy squall (possible given the high winter lapse rates we've seen lately) could easily drop a quick inch.
  23. SnoSki14
    NYC is still at 40-41
  24. SnoSki14
    Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain.
  25. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't get too caught up on things. Models have been shifting like crazy lately. It's also highly unlikely to be locked in. I do like that ensembles continue to show a +PNA and some blocking in the NAO/AO regions. That could be good come January with much more favorable climo.
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