SnoSki14

I think people are just shocked we haven't seen 80s & 90s when past Mays had those in abundance. That and a few really raw days and cooler maxes overall make things feel much worse than they are.

Blocking stays in place, pattern locks in so I don't see why it wouldn't continue this month. By June the effectiveness of blocking starts to weaken but I wouldn't be shocked to see this regime last through mid June.

Some guidance even suggests daytime temps in the 40s with the two coastal like storms Sun-Tue. My current forecast is low 50s Sun/Mon.

They'll trend wetter as we go forward. Focus could be on Sunday night through Tuesday. Models slowing down the systems given blocking. Nasty early week with highs only in the low to mid 50s (or colder given coastal signal) with rain.

Pattern will likely turn even cooler relative to normal than the first 10 days of May with averages now being in the 70s.

Yeah and it showed blocking all winter and we know how that panned out. Expect corrections as we get closer.

Yup, so much for all the doom & gloom. Tomorrow looks decent too.

Pretty hilarious differences between surface temps on Gfs vs Nam for Wednesday. Nam has won these battles almost every time.

You're pretty much guaranteed to hit 70F with some sunshine this time of year unless there's an onshore component or a deep trough/cut-off low.

The pattern moving forward looks stormier than what we've seen though not everyday. In fact this would be an ideal winter pattern. You have a -NAO/AO and a PNA that's rising, which will shift the trough moreso over the eastern US. I think we'll see a couple mid to late May nor'easters with some very cool temperatures. On the plus side we may see more offshore vs onshore flow with several fronts out of the NW, which for this time of year leads to pleasant weather. Prob 60s & 70s with low humidity. But if you're looking for true summer weather, it'll have to wait. Def no 90s and even 80s will be hard to come by.

Seeing more clouds now, HRRR/Nam indicate temps should drop into the 50s soon due to the onshore flow.

It's a great day. I love a good synoptic rain event with cool temperatures every once in a while. For those complaining, you'll get months worth of heat, sun & humidity so relax. In fact by tomorrow & Tuesday we're pushing 80F again.

We'll get into this warmth once the effects of a -NAO diminish going into summer.

How? The numbers aren't adding up.

I'm sure high minimums were the reason why. However there were a handful of days in the 70s to near 80F with widespread 80s in NJ on a couple occasions.

A -NAO going into the summer can be a precursor to extreme heat due to shifting wavelengths. But for May & possibly June it'll mean some stormy weather with hot/cool intervals.

It hasn't been rough at all. Typical spring weather so far, warm too. We've seen far worse past few years. Were folks expecting 90+ by May because that's not how this works. Seeing ridging signals by next week on models so we'll see 80s very soon. Looks like -NAO breaks down.

We just had a top 10 warmest month in April and the rains haven't been that bad. It was near normal for most of NJ. Sounds like a very warm, average precip spring to me.

The backdoor tends to win out most of the time from April to mid May. Big temp bust on Thursday I think, could be near 80F or in the 50s/60s.

When will they realize 30 year or even 15 year averages are a thing of the past. AN is the new normal now. Top 5-10 months are the new AN months.

Don't buy that for a second. We haven't been in a dry pattern for many months now and with a firehouse jet continuing, that's not likely to change.

Lots of activity to come through later. Wouldn't be surprised to see a spin-up or two. Warm front slowly moving north.

Getting some nice storms rolling through. Good deal of lightning too despite relatively cool temps.

There's our -NAO

We're getting a lot of sunny breaks with temperatures now forecast to hit almost 80F. So definitely think threat will be larger than expected. I would've expanded the slight risk even further north.