SnoSki14

Apparently La Nina's with high ACE are favorable for winter (1995, 2010). ETA could eventually push the ACE past 160-165. Also November is not a winter month imo so it could torch all it wants if that means December is good.

Perhaps the eventual tropical system, whether it be Eta or another storm, that could impact FL Wilma style will be the pattern changing event.

Record warm November coming up? Massive long lasting ridge in the east likely with tropics active well into the month.

Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow.

1st half mild with a transition to colder 2nd half looks probable imo.

Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. At least the pattern looks different for once. Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches.

That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast. In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done.

Enjoy the mild winter then.

I wouldn't mind another mild snow-free winter. Lower bills, no traffic jams/accidents, no shoveling, no frigid weather. Not a bad ask.

Looks nice and warm for the foreseeable future.

We're going to roast this winter again.

Should be interesting to watch nonetheless. Strong WAR could mean this ends up close to the coast but many days out of course.

We're really feeling the AGW effects now. It seems as though 2015/2016 was a tipping point with the mega Nino. I think every winter from this point on will be warm/wet or warm/dry. Snow will be unlikely but not impossible as years like 2016/2017 could still happen. However this year will likely be another 2011/2012 style winter.

GFS has consistently been showing a Caribbean hurricane that eventually goes up the east coast. Strong WAR pattern would support such a track.

I think something like 2016-2017 is possible.

So there's some hope winter won't be dead this year?

The problem with these long range forecasts is the hyper fast pacific jet will keep causing rapid shifts. I'm not convinced we see a big warmup after October 10. So far there's been a tendency for ridging to build out west and that could continue.

Our expectations are very low this winter. Like I'd be amazed to see a snow shower low.

Don't think the early foliage is just new England related either. Seeing a lot of color down in central nj, very unusual for late September.

At what point is blizzard just gonna admit he's a climate change denier so we can move on. And there's no point arguing with one. You can cite 1000s of examples and debunk every claim they make and they'll still come up with some nonsense. The fact is that the earth is rapidly warming mostly due to human related activities. Even when factoring in every natural cause, there's still a ton of excess warmth that could only be caused by humans. CO2 PPM levels went from 240 to 420+ since the industrial revolution, which is exactly when the long term warming trends began...it's not a coincidence. Some 99.7% of the 11K+ scientists agree. The only ones that don't have been proven to have interests in the fossil fuel industry. If you still reject all this then you're simply a denier who either has some vested interest in the fossil fuel industry or is just some edgy anti-science contrairian, which we def don't need more of.

Yes as cloud debris will get in the way.

A lot of the current fires were caused by lightning. Sure we could educate people more and clean up the forests but that's not gonna stop these fires from happening. The only thing that'll stop them is immediately addressing the climate change problem.

Awful given the fires there.

EPS/GEFS continue to signal strong cool down 1st week of Oct with possibly some rains.

As best as you're gonna get. I wonder if the early cool down and rather dry conditions will trigger early foliage this year. I'm already seeing colors popping up.