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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Weak MJO signal though. Looks like it may stay in circle. AO/NAO likely to drop to near neutral late November. Several forecasts actually have Dec being the most favorable winter month with Jan a close 2nd. Favorable in this winter will still be unfavorable overall but they'll likely be a few opportunities for snow. The fast flow of the pacific makes it really difficult to forecast anything beyond 5 days.
  2. SnoSki14
    Think maybe the MJOs current favorable passage could set the stage for a more prolonged cooler spell. Of course the EPS could easily flip next run.
  3. SnoSki14
    It won't save you forever or even this winter given the prognostications.
  4. SnoSki14
    So basically a continuation of the past 5 years.
  5. SnoSki14
    This will be a record warm November right. It's supposed to be near 80F again today with more 70s coming. It's absolutely insane.
  6. SnoSki14
    We're gonna get very close to 80F today. If it can happen in Feb it can def happen in Nov.
  7. SnoSki14
    It's going to be weird. The typical strong Nina caveats may not play out either due to differences in the Pacific & Atlantic vs typical Nina years.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'm not convinced that it's gonna be like 11-12 because the pattern is not fully coupled with the Nina. Last winter was already a 11/12 style winter. I think it'll be much more variable than people think.
  9. SnoSki14
    I have a feeling the anger will start to boil as 70s still linger into Thanksgiving week, which is very possible btw.
  10. SnoSki14
    There is potential for this winter to blow 2011/12 out of the water regarding the warmth. Imagine seeing widespread blooms in Dec/Jan, insane stuff. There's also a chance we go through some odd snowy/cold periods.
  11. SnoSki14
    Somehow I don't think that'll be the case. They'll be some odd periods for sure.
  12. SnoSki14
    We should easily see a record warm November. Temps could shoot into the 70s on multiple days in this pattern which now could last all month. Very Dec 2015 like.
  13. SnoSki14
    You're going to see bugs and spring like growth with all the coming warmth. Even a greening with 70s on multiple days. Bizarre weather coming up.
  14. SnoSki14
    Crazy warmth coming and I don't mind it one bit.
  15. SnoSki14
    It's going to be an odd winter. The unusual western anomalies and the big Nina dip are out of sorts. The last couple winters were Ninos with Nina like patterns, I don't know what this winter will yield. I don't even think you can use past analogs anymore. Things are no longer as clear cut as they used to be.
  16. SnoSki14
    Apparently La Nina's with high ACE are favorable for winter (1995, 2010). ETA could eventually push the ACE past 160-165. Also November is not a winter month imo so it could torch all it wants if that means December is good.
  17. SnoSki14
    Perhaps the eventual tropical system, whether it be Eta or another storm, that could impact FL Wilma style will be the pattern changing event.
  18. SnoSki14
    Record warm November coming up? Massive long lasting ridge in the east likely with tropics active well into the month.
  19. SnoSki14
    Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow.
  20. SnoSki14
    1st half mild with a transition to colder 2nd half looks probable imo.
  21. SnoSki14
    Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. At least the pattern looks different for once. Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches.
  22. SnoSki14
    That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast. In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done.
  23. SnoSki14
    Enjoy the mild winter then.
  24. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't mind another mild snow-free winter. Lower bills, no traffic jams/accidents, no shoveling, no frigid weather. Not a bad ask.
  25. SnoSki14
    Looks nice and warm for the foreseeable future.
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