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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Because we only average 20-25" and are near sea level plus the background warming state. Blocking has also been mostly absent which is critical for anyone south of 41N. There's been years where we've gotten basically nothing like the early & late 90s and 80s. Years like 2010-11 and multiple snowy years from 2000-2018 are anomalies.
  2. SnoSki14
    Seeing how difficult it is to get a snowstorm here makes you appreciate all the snowstorms in the 2000s & 2010s Just think about what it takes to get it right. Perfect track, cold air supply, PNA, blocking, 50/50 low, etc. and you could have all those things and have the storm miss you by 50 miles. The difficulty will only increase with AGW making our climate more and more like Virginia.
  3. SnoSki14
    There's still time for changes to be made. I quite like the Dec 8th setup actually. It would be nice if this pattern could repeat in late Dec and Jan.
  4. SnoSki14
    Very unlikely to stick around if it occurs. The gish gallop weather pattern makes it difficult for anything to lock in place.
  5. SnoSki14
    Could the 8th offer a sneaky coastal? Models are showing more potential there and we have a tendency to see OTS systems trend west. There's also enough cold air around too.
  6. SnoSki14
    If the gfs is correct we could see heavy wet snow at like 35-36F that doesn't accumulate. Higher elevations could see grassy surfaces turn white.
  7. SnoSki14
    The only thing consistent is that warmth will always win out. 2000-2018 will be the best snow period we'll ever experience and it's all downhill from there.
  8. SnoSki14
    The strong PNA ridge could ultimately help turn the hugger into a coastal but there's little cold air to work with in general. Pattern change is a work in progress but there will be opportunities moving forward.
  9. SnoSki14
    Unless it's a strong cool down it'll always break warm in the long range. We cannot escape the reality of AGW.
  10. SnoSki14
    2015 definitely felt like a turning point. Ever since then cold air has been hard to come by and winters have mostly been very warm with a few notable exceptions due to extreme blocking. And with warming continuing to accelerate I feel we're going to see a major drop in the annual snowfall averages this decade.
  11. SnoSki14
    Very little run to run continuity. Ensembles are your best friend.
  12. SnoSki14
    Our inevitable descent into climate catastrophe continues.
  13. SnoSki14
    Agree especially with the massive teleconnection shifts (+PNA, -AO/NAO) in a stormy direction.
  14. SnoSki14
    The fact that there's any chance of winter is a win this year. Things still look good 2nd week of Dec.
  15. SnoSki14
    Best chance for snow will be during the retrogression or the Dec 6-13 period.
  16. SnoSki14
    2nd week of December looks good. Would be shocked if there wasn't a plowable event or two somewhere in the northeast.
  17. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't be quick to assume the 2nd half goes all warm for us. I'm not sure many had the current developments in their forecast. It's difficult to compare this year to 80s analogs given how much has changed over that time. 2nd week of December looks interesting for sure.
  18. SnoSki14
    It's going to take a few days for that to be sorted out. I'd still go with the phased solution rather than whatever the gfs is doing. One thing I'll be keeping an eye on in the ensembles is whether or not the PNA ridge rolls over or not. If it does then we'll warm very quickly by mid December.
  19. SnoSki14
    Unfortunately if the WAR ends up being strong it'll be the Midwest that scores here. Still I'm liking the trends we're seeing. Ensembles are pretty good and actually push ridging further north as we progress in December. I'm stunned we're entering a strong Nina with this look. Very odd.
  20. SnoSki14
    That one seems like a lost cause. A big phaser could be good for us with regards to the pattern in December. 12z GFS OP looked good after the big Nov 30 phaser.
  21. SnoSki14
    Gfs looks good after November 30. Cold air is around, nice ridging up North, I think there's potential for something. You'd probably want a big phaser for that late November storm though.
  22. SnoSki14
    A torched Canada is still cold. EPS/GEFS look good moving forward however there's not a ton of cold to work with. I do like that they're poking further north with the ridging.
  23. SnoSki14
    Things actually don't look horrific for early December. Definite +PNA signal with some ridging extending into AO/NAO regions & less piggish near Alaska.
  24. SnoSki14
    Likely a cutter of course but could be a significant storm that ushers in a decent cold mass early December. Not sure if +PNA is transient. Also noticed AO looking more neutral/negative in the forecast today.
  25. SnoSki14
    MJO will play little to no role here unlike the last couple Decembers which progressed from phases 3-6. Not sure what MJO was in 2011
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