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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Nam 3K has picked up amounts. Could be close to 6" for parts of the NYC metro extending into NJ.
  2. SnoSki14
    Moderate snows coating everything again.
  3. SnoSki14
    First flakes near Somerset.
  4. SnoSki14
    Plenty of lift. Doesn't look to shabby. Snow growth should be really good with perhaps better than 10:1 ratios.
  5. SnoSki14
    That has little to no effect due to wet bulbing. We saw 55+ temps a day before a snowstorm before. Looks like city is 40/18 right now.
  6. SnoSki14
    I think those heavier amounts will end up 20-30 further NW like we saw with past storm.
  7. SnoSki14
    HRRR was garbage on Monday. The only thing it got right was the sleet elements.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'm sticking with 4-8" but higher than normal bust potential. Thinking rapidly intensifying low taking track up to 40/70 should yield better results than a couple inches. But we'll see, hoping for a positive bust for once.
  9. SnoSki14
    Based on where the low will be the heaviest stuff should be over central/east NJ into NYC/LI. Remember the strongest banding tends to be further NW than modeled.
  10. SnoSki14
    Always go above forecast on wsw flow during sunny days.
  11. SnoSki14
    NWS going somewhat against guidance and probably for good reason. Snow growth should be very good for a few hours. 4-8" still looking good
  12. SnoSki14
    Plenty of days to go. I'd be surprised if it was as far north as the Euro shows. I would feel better living in SNE though.
  13. SnoSki14
    It'll be a fine line between snowy or sleet/rain. I lean snowy due to the scope of the TPV and recent trends but it could lean either way especially near that 40-41N latitude.
  14. SnoSki14
    I'm sticking with 4-8" Nearly perfect track with intensifying low will not yield 2-4" totals for the coast.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yes that's true. I think there will be a bigger storm to follow shortly after the Arctic plunge. Even if Thursdays storm works out it doesn't scream huge storm to me right now.
  16. SnoSki14
    I'm a little weary about this one. Too much SE ridging for my liking but there should be ample cold up north to resist it. There's def a 50/50 in place and hopefully that trends stronger too. It'll likely be a redeveloper but could favor northern areas. We might see a snow to sleet/rain type storm but it's still early. I am getting a more northern/warmer PD 2 vibe though.
  17. SnoSki14
    It looks to die in 7 which isn't bad with blocking.
  18. SnoSki14
    I like globals for track and mesos for precip. Gfs is way too low imo. The current 4-7 forecast looks solid.
  19. SnoSki14
    On those precip charts a lot of that stuff that shows rain would be wet snow. I still like 6-10" but until other models come onboard I'll hedge closer to 4-8".
  20. SnoSki14
    I am surprised by how dry models are. The track is pretty much perfect for the coast. Maybe they'll pick things up today.
  21. SnoSki14
    You still think it'll be amped?
  22. SnoSki14
    Hopefully they ramp up again tomorrow afternoon. Sometimes models back off a bit only to come back again next cycle but we'll see.
  23. SnoSki14
    Nam is a solid 6-12" storm. Not worried about mixing. Even a bump NW would be fine.
  24. SnoSki14
    You get the opposite in early August when the nights begin to get a little shorter and maybe even a cold front passes by to drop the dews briefly. But then it quickly goes back to summer again. And currently it's very likely that the coldest weather still lies ahead. Actually the fact that we haven't seen many 50+ highs is surprising.
  25. SnoSki14
    I fully expect a bump west in track.
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