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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The backend is my biggest question mark. If it's as intense as the gfs shows then it could drop several inches in 2-3 hours.
  2. SnoSki14
    People should temper their expectations because there's significant bust potential. If the immediate NYC metro scores 6" consider that a huge win.
  3. SnoSki14
    I agree the bust potential is huge. Of course what happens there doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen here. Side note I'm starting to think the backside stuff is real. Models leaning more on an intense band of snow developing as the storm slowly pulls east.
  4. SnoSki14
    Heavier precip will be snow, lighter will be more sleety. It's going to be really close for fringe areas. Those spots are just as likely to see 6" as they are to see 12"+. Backside snows are a wildcard.
  5. SnoSki14
    The wet bulb temps are the only thing that matters. In this case the surface temps could be 35-37 and they'd drop to 28-30F when the snow starts.
  6. SnoSki14
    What will determine if we get those higher amounts will be any backside snows. The initial thump will be followed by a dry slot and then maybe a partial CCB.
  7. SnoSki14
    I can't believe raindance said that silly statement unless he was referring to the previous system. Still the soil temp idea is pretty ridiculous when it can go from pouring to snow drifts in hours.
  8. SnoSki14
    I heard 06Z Euro looked really good.
  9. SnoSki14
    Is there a side by side of the first image comparing 06Z with 09Z.
  10. SnoSki14
    I'm at 8F dew so that's a good sign. Will see if the cold, dry high helps force the low more offshore as it moves north.
  11. SnoSki14
    Yeah that's probably the best case scenario here.
  12. SnoSki14
    It appears a quicker transfer could be the reason for the colder/snowier runs.
  13. SnoSki14
    Still floored I'm under a WSW for 12-20" just west of Piscataway. That's a bust waiting to happen.
  14. SnoSki14
    Nam has more confluence and is significantly better for those 20+ miles north and west of the city. Is it just the off run or will it continue, we'll see.
  15. SnoSki14
    Are there any similarities to this with the November storm a couple years back? I remember that one taking everyone by surprise. Euro threw a life raft in a fleeting situation but could just be a fluke. If the next set of runs doesn't tick SE then you'll probably see the Euro correct NW tonight.
  16. SnoSki14
    It was fun while it lasted but tracking for days and then it all turning to crap is crushing. At this point I'll be happy with an inch or two before the changeover. Who knows if that'll even happen given the trends. Good for PA. They've been getting skunked while we raked in the coastal for years, they deserve it.
  17. SnoSki14
    Everything's still trending NW though that's the problem. A quick shot of snow to rain is looking more likely. Even places well north and into CT could dry slot. I wasn't trolling when I said 1-3/2-4" this morning.
  18. SnoSki14
    The tucked in models would increase the coastal flooding/wind issues. Someone could gust up to 60mph, which would cause outages combined with a few inches of paste/sleet.
  19. SnoSki14
    Yup looks like my 1-3/2-4" call looks good if that verifies.
  20. SnoSki14
    That seems likely. The initial burst will also cool things down significantly that could prolong the snows before warming takes over. Or maybe the Gfs still scores a huge hail mary victory. Wouldn't we all love that.
  21. SnoSki14
    Watch the dew points tomorrow morning. If they're really low (single digits) then it could mean the low will end up further offshore due to the strong press of the high north. We've seen last minute corrections east in these CAD setups.
  22. SnoSki14
    I expect a few inches, that's not dead and I agreed with the 6" thump as long as models don't trend further inland.
  23. SnoSki14
    What does the EPS show?
  24. SnoSki14
    Gfs is your hail mary with this storm. 12z runs will probably be the final nail in the coffin regarding track and amounts. If you want that 6" front-end dump then you better hope that don't keep trending inland.
  25. SnoSki14
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