Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,446

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    But will it actually lead to anything is the question.
  2. SnoSki14
    I think there's infinitely more potential this Jan than last year. Yes the Pacific isn't great but it wouldn't take much to score with massive atlantic blocking in place.
  3. SnoSki14
    It appears more likely that we like not see a Xmas eve repeat for NYE. Atlantic blocking will be having an effect on this pattern with significant AO/NAO drops prior to the storm. MJO is also in phases 1-2 within circle. I'm not surprised the models are catching on however this doesn't mean we'll be seeing snow anytime soon. The Pacific is looking very hostile (for now) and will compete against the more favorable Atlantic.
  4. SnoSki14
    Way too early for that. That's a stout block on the ensembles so there's always a chance for something to sneak in. GEFS didn't look too bad. Even a brief relaxation of pacific jet would go a long ways.
  5. SnoSki14
    The indices didn't support another huge cutter like Xmas, not shocked at all this is trending towards a SWFE. Plenty more time for trends too.
  6. SnoSki14
    This December was a lot better than I expected so I'll take it as a win. I'm sure it'll snow again.
  7. SnoSki14
    The teleconnections do not agree with the ensembles at all. Very odd to see
  8. SnoSki14
    The block is very wonky. It's way too far south and almost looks like an extended north atlantic subtropical ridge. No matter it can't compete against the negative pacific influences. In fact its odd placement is probably why the pacific isn't good.
  9. SnoSki14
    The gfs looks completely at odds with CMC after New Year's. There's zero chance the gfs is correct with those indices as shown. Pattern still looks good after New Year's storm. The blocking doesn't even kick in until then.
  10. SnoSki14
    Getting some really strong gusts now
  11. SnoSki14
    61F with breezy conditions. Things should start cranking gradually next couple hours and beyond.
  12. SnoSki14
    That's a lot better than whatever crap the gfs was dishing
  13. SnoSki14
    Oh good I thought it was just me that thought the new upgrade was trash.
  14. SnoSki14
    I'd rather have a good pacific than atlantic though. We've been able to manage just fine without atlantic blocking in the past.
  15. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't be shocked to see temps much higher than forecast thus making the airmass more unstable. Our wind events as of late have been solid.
  16. SnoSki14
    Looks like they went with an advisory here with gusts up to 55mph. Playing it safe in case the inversion is too prominent.
  17. SnoSki14
    If the block is as strong as depicted then I have no doubt it'll trend south over time. I'd buy a SWFE
  18. SnoSki14
    Gfs would have has getting into the mid 60s with 60+ dews. That would make it more likely to have us see those winds come down. That's where the uncertainty lies right now. If the inversion holds then we're probably looking at 40-45mph gusts max.
  19. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'm sure why everyone's so down. Would you want a giant black hole over Alaska & the Arctic instead.
  20. SnoSki14
    I can't believe how far inland it has these gusts. I can't imagine this is correct but if we see widespread 60 temps with 60+ dews then there won't be much of an inversion left. Not much snowpack south of I-78 either. Also given the colder ocean I'd imagine the strongest gusts could be slightly more inland right?
  21. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly NWS sounding a bit more concerned this morning and strongly suggest widespread wind advisories and potentially expanded HWW. So it might be a wild Xmas Eve/early Xmas morning.
  22. SnoSki14
    How accurate are these maps?
  23. SnoSki14
    Models are trending slower with the front allowing us to stay in the warm sector longer thus making it more likely we'll break through the inversion. Snow cover will also be down to nothing by then.
  24. SnoSki14
    Delayed not denied perfectly explained by Isotherm. He too believes our chances will likely wait until early January. Initial block is too south but eventually adjusts to a favorable position while the pacific improves in tandem. Looks like PV takes a significant hit in early Jan too. I'd be shocked if there wasn't a major snow event in the Jan 1-10th period for coastal regions.
  25. SnoSki14
    So this has got to be bs right. Really 60-75mph gusts that far inland? 70+ mph gusts in PA.
×
×
  • Create New...