SnoSki14

We really won't know who's gonna get hit the most until it starts happening. High bust potential either way. However with the closed low passing to our south I feel a little better about our chances.

It's going to tough to warm-up the surface especially just N&W of the city. I see a dangerous icy situation unfolding for parts of the region. Monday will be a wildcard for sure, unfortunately the positive trends from yesterday didn't continue so now it'll be more of a waiting game.

I think Nov 2012 is a better comparison. My thought is that heavy deform banding will set up as the secondary low slowly pulls away and intensifies. Temps will easily be cold enough to support snow. Ice/sleet will be a threat on the front end.

Still thinking it'll be a 6-10" storm away from immediate coast. Front end could surprise as models always underestimate surface cold.

CT could be the jackpot spot as I think models will continue to trend slightly further south with the closed low.

I think we could see a November 2012 repeat with heavy banding as the closed low slowly moves eastward. GFS is a mess at the surface, big shock, but given it's depiction aloft it would really produce for us. If current trends continue then I think we see 6-10" for our region from the closed low.

Continuing to see the closed low trend south on the models. Makes me think the heaviest banding from the closed low could be near the city and in central NJ. Could be some sleet/FRZA with the front end though probably not much otherwise.

The EPS continues to trend stronger with the high to the north which would lead to south shifts with the low. And I fully expect that to continue.

The trend is nice to see but it could just as easily trend the other way though I personally think it'll go even further south. But the skepticism is definitely warranted especially for so early in the season.

Which is why I hope it keeps trending south now ahead of the inevitable north shift later.

It slows down and gets down into low 980s. I wonder if models will trend stronger with secondary as we get closer.

I always had a feeling this would trend more south.

How was the early Nov 2012 event. I remember most models had us raining the entire time, it was one of the more recent surprise snow events.

If the secondary really bombs then we could all flip to snow. The surface looks a few degrees colder than with the last system and a lot of people reported sleet and a brief changeover especially further southwest with that one. This would be a much better outcome in January as even a Pacific airmass would be cold enough for snow.

I don't know why anyone would get upset over day 6 runs. They're gonna change numerous times before then.

I would agree if it wasn't for the unusual pattern. I've never seen a secondary depicted to move ESE like that when off the Delmarva especially with a primary so far north. We shall see if today's Euro sticks to its guts or decides to trend south. If the stronger 50/50 low is correct then the low will be shunted south.

The primary is in the lower Midwest and it has to redevelop due to the 50/50 type low. It's not a lakes cutter at all. The secondary could even move ESE as it develops due to the strong confluence up north. The strong high to the north would lead to good surface cold as long as the track is favorable. Models will shift further south with this. Only issue is that the system could end up disjointed as the primary get shredded. Would really need the secondary to rapidly intensify for the storm to produce.

I think it be difficult to whiff but I do think the focus will be south of where it is now.

Yeah bc I'm sure the 150hr GFS will verify exactly like that. Suppression that far south is unlikely due to the very far north primary. A secondary coastal wouldn't get further south than the Delmarva.

South trend continues, not surprised at all. Euro should be interesting.

I don't think that solution should automatically be discounted. The low will have to get shunted one way or another. Just not sure where it happens.

Cold air is still very marginal unfortunately. Euro may be active but the line between snow & rain is very thin.

The area did get screwed over last December with a system that was too far south, and given how eerily similar the pattern has been, more southerly trends wouldn't surprise me. That's a lot of troughiness over eastern Canada despite the dying block.

I think this will be a significant storm with a good sign being the massive change in the teleconnections following it. I don't see why it wouldn't keep trending south if the 50/50 low is as strong as depicted. Last December we actually got screwed by a system that was too far south, will a south trend repeat itself? Afterwards we should enter an extended warm-up as AO & NAO soar. The -EPO could keep us on the colder side first 1/3 of December though. January could surprise us this year, it's sort of been the neutral month this decade with a mixed bag of events. February has been terrible post 14/15 and of course there's always March to the rescue with the massive late season blocking that screws our early spring weather.

Models are trending further and further south with the coastal transfer. There's a legit 50/50 low in place though spread out & transient but if it ends up stronger then models will continue trending south.