Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,183

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Ensembles are steady run to run so I think it's just noise. However the risk of a tucked in solution is out there.
  2. SnoSki14
    Some of these tucked in lows have produced the most in the past if the right setup/airmass is in place. Hoping for a nice Euro run tonight to round things up.
  3. SnoSki14
    I noticed the CMC is more amped than the GFS because of the way it handles Mondays wave. I'd be willing to forego Monday if we get a bomb on Wednesday.
  4. SnoSki14
    The thing about blocking patterns is that they're very stable. I don't anticipate a lot of changes between now and then regarding track.
  5. SnoSki14
    That's a very strong shortwave interacting with strong confluent flow. Pretty ideal MECS setup honestly.
  6. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the NAO will be as persistent this time around as it has been in the spring months. The first step would be for the coming systems to bring the goods. Nina's with good Decembers typically fair well.
  7. SnoSki14
    Makes sense. Best case scenario would be us getting hit with both though it'll be tough with the lack of cold in wave 1.
  8. SnoSki14
    It helps when you have a strong blocking pattern in place (pacific or atlantic). Blocking patterns give every shortwave an opportunity to overperform and turn into at least a minor event, there's generally a cold air supply around, and you have more wiggle room even when the setup isn't ideal. Blocking patterns can also last several weeks to months.
  9. SnoSki14
    Very true. About a week ago everything looked hopeless with the Nina ridge returning. Can you imagine if the CMC ends up being correct, talk about a giant hammer to all the doom and gloom wall to wall torch winter forecasts.
  10. SnoSki14
    Classic I-95 MECS on the CMC. Really cold surface temps too.
  11. SnoSki14
    I never said it was. My argument is that during SWFEs models frequently correct colder and adjust the low further south due to the strong high in front of it. I expect the same thing to happen here.
  12. SnoSki14
    Wave 1 could be a sneaky snow event. Models continue ticking north and there's a surprisingly high amount of precip with it despite it being a fast mover.
  13. SnoSki14
    Not if there's a strong block in place. Large 50/50 low is allowing the high to hold to our north. A strong high like that will stop the low from cutting. We see it time and time again with SWFEs.
  14. SnoSki14
    Wave 1 could trend more amped because blocking pattern hasn't set up and poor pacific favors it trending NW. However by the time wave 2 happens you have strong blocking in place and it favors a hard stop to ENE track once the low is off the Delmarva. A whiff is more likely with wave 2 than it cutting.
  15. SnoSki14
    Good mix between the more offshore models and the more wound up Euro. EPS still more relevant than OP runs though.
  16. SnoSki14
    Pretty solid stuff coming in. Ensembles looking really nice. You might see models with a more offshore position for a bit but then they'll amp things up as we get closer like with the last coastal. Luckily we have a much better airmass in place this time.
  17. SnoSki14
    Best to go with GEFS/EPS until it gets closer. 6-7 days is still a long time and OP runs are gonna jump around. I wouldn't stress on the details just yet.
  18. SnoSki14
    They were inland yesterday. I expect them to shuffle back and forth but things look good right now for a miller B. Nice high to our north with 50/50 low.
  19. SnoSki14
    Do you have an analysis up or will you be posting one?
  20. SnoSki14
    Setup is pretty good for a classic miller B type storm. GEFS agree with OP. I wouldn't sweat too much about the run to run changes as long as the core pattern remains in place. Wave one still worth watching too for a light event.
  21. SnoSki14
    Where did that big Siberian/Arctic block come from? There was nothing there a few days ago.
  22. SnoSki14
    My worry is that the collapse of the PNA could cause the storm to cut more inland and that we have a marginal airmass in place. We got a coastal track with the last storm due to the +PNA but had little cold air. There'll be more cold this time around but no PNA. Will the Atlantic blocking be strong enough to negate it.
  23. SnoSki14
    We lose the PNA so there'll be a tendency for storms to cut. That's guaranteed if the Atlantic blocking isn't as strong as forecast though the progressive nature of the Pacific driven pattern could offset that to an extent.
  24. SnoSki14
    EPS showing stronger Atlantic blocking and starts to bring the PNA back a bit, which would make it less likely for systems to cut. Airmass is still meh but Canada looks cold.
  25. SnoSki14
    The upcoming pattern isn't that bad at all. It's a lot better than I expected given all the doom and gloom forecasts.
×
×
  • Create New...