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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The block is very wonky. It's way too far south and almost looks like an extended north atlantic subtropical ridge. No matter it can't compete against the negative pacific influences. In fact its odd placement is probably why the pacific isn't good.
  2. SnoSki14
    The gfs looks completely at odds with CMC after New Year's. There's zero chance the gfs is correct with those indices as shown. Pattern still looks good after New Year's storm. The blocking doesn't even kick in until then.
  3. SnoSki14
    Getting some really strong gusts now
  4. SnoSki14
    61F with breezy conditions. Things should start cranking gradually next couple hours and beyond.
  5. SnoSki14
    That's a lot better than whatever crap the gfs was dishing
  6. SnoSki14
    Oh good I thought it was just me that thought the new upgrade was trash.
  7. SnoSki14
    I'd rather have a good pacific than atlantic though. We've been able to manage just fine without atlantic blocking in the past.
  8. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't be shocked to see temps much higher than forecast thus making the airmass more unstable. Our wind events as of late have been solid.
  9. SnoSki14
    Looks like they went with an advisory here with gusts up to 55mph. Playing it safe in case the inversion is too prominent.
  10. SnoSki14
    If the block is as strong as depicted then I have no doubt it'll trend south over time. I'd buy a SWFE
  11. SnoSki14
    Gfs would have has getting into the mid 60s with 60+ dews. That would make it more likely to have us see those winds come down. That's where the uncertainty lies right now. If the inversion holds then we're probably looking at 40-45mph gusts max.
  12. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'm sure why everyone's so down. Would you want a giant black hole over Alaska & the Arctic instead.
  13. SnoSki14
    I can't believe how far inland it has these gusts. I can't imagine this is correct but if we see widespread 60 temps with 60+ dews then there won't be much of an inversion left. Not much snowpack south of I-78 either. Also given the colder ocean I'd imagine the strongest gusts could be slightly more inland right?
  14. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly NWS sounding a bit more concerned this morning and strongly suggest widespread wind advisories and potentially expanded HWW. So it might be a wild Xmas Eve/early Xmas morning.
  15. SnoSki14
    How accurate are these maps?
  16. SnoSki14
    Models are trending slower with the front allowing us to stay in the warm sector longer thus making it more likely we'll break through the inversion. Snow cover will also be down to nothing by then.
  17. SnoSki14
    Delayed not denied perfectly explained by Isotherm. He too believes our chances will likely wait until early January. Initial block is too south but eventually adjusts to a favorable position while the pacific improves in tandem. Looks like PV takes a significant hit in early Jan too. I'd be shocked if there wasn't a major snow event in the Jan 1-10th period for coastal regions.
  18. SnoSki14
    So this has got to be bs right. Really 60-75mph gusts that far inland? 70+ mph gusts in PA.
  19. SnoSki14
    Holy crap if that's accurate. Widespread 60-70mph+ gusts across the entire northeast for Xmas Eve into Xmas. Yikes! Oh and don't forget the snowpack induced flooding for some.
  20. SnoSki14
    If the Nino state is maintained that would have vast repercussions on all those Feb torch forecasts. As of now it looks like the blockiness will carry on. We've seen months of blockiness in the spring/summer months...I wonder if it'll maintain through winter.
  21. SnoSki14
    Looks like they'll be a ton of potential with consistent blocking up north and pacific shortwaves coming through every few days. Not all of them may be snow or produce but odds are greater than normal plus climo starts to become a lot more favorable for us.
  22. SnoSki14
    If we get to 60F+ plus the squall line then those 60-80mph gusts will mix down. Correct forecast is very conservative because they assume the inversion will hold however how many times how temps gone over forecast in the warm sector during these cases. Snow pack is also rapidly dwindling south of I-78.
  23. SnoSki14
    Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum.
  24. SnoSki14
    Somehow I doubt that. I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though. I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days.
  25. SnoSki14
    I don't see any full latitude trough on the ensembles.
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