SnoSki14

I'd be shocked if temps didn't overperform this weekend. If there's breaks in the cloud cover then we'll see 70s.

The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in.

Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago. We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half. Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually.

If you're using the GFS then you're gonna get burnt. Euro is much milder.

Wow impressive cold out west is likely. Places like Montana could see -30F or lower temps. Even out towards Seattle could see highs in the teens & 20s with snow possible. Some signs a chunk of that may get here eventually though I remain skeptical of what the GFS shows.

You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7. If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade.

Just wait till the weekend, completely absurd departures possible. We may see a 70F reading under cloudy skies in mid January...that's insane.

This is the reality that some don't seem to understand. I think any significant change is still weeks away. We'll see if the MJO will push through. My thoughts are that latter Feb and March probably end up colder than normal similar to past few years. There's a nice source region of cold building to our north that should impact us eventually. Marches, like Novembers, have also skewed colder over the past several years.

Going off a day 11-15 ensemble is not something I'd depend on. The only thing that's been verifying is a stronger than progged SE ridge and I don't see that changing with the highly unfavorable Pacific & MJO. Any colder than normal weather won't happen until Feb assuming the MJO doesn't get stuck. Feb will likely be much colder than Jan (not difficult if January is +6 or better) though it could still be AN. I like raindancewx's analysis about how the months are mimicking what we saw in late summer and fall.

Of course JB is now using 1993 as his top analog after his disastrous January cold call. We'd be very lucky to see that show up later in Feb/March. A lot of that will depend on the MJO. If it gets stuck or even circles back then we're done. If it gets into phase 7-1 then winter will return.

You know it's bad when people get excited over a coating/dusting. Spring can't get here fast enough.

There was always a threat of a storm in this timeframe and we often see storms prior to a major pattern change. However the pattern is very progressive so this one could easily skip through and give us zilch (see 06z GFS).

I wonder if that big cutter will verify. GFS has very strong sw winds and 60s next Saturday.

Temps should be +15 to +20 degrees AN with very warm mins and possibly 60+ highs.

Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture. It's like a tropical pattern in January.

Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9. This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12. For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking.

Next weekend could be record breaking. Today's Euro indicates 60s possible, insane 850mb anomalies. LA might be colder than us.

Almost certain heights/temps will build as we approach the warm-up. Near record MJO 4/5 amplitude paired with soaring AO/NAO and a deeply -PNA all but ensures near record to record warmth.

Record warmth likely.

The bigger the + departure I think the more likely the band will snap the other way to balance things out. That and the -SOI December should lead to much colder February unless it's just a full torch like 01/02 & 11/12. And I don't think it will be, this is gonna be a much wetter winter plus both those winters featured CONUS wide torches whereas this one will have a clear west cold/east warmth split for Jan plus a cold source region in Canada so an 06/07 could be a possibility.

Holy crap is the EPS torchy after Jan 10. Just keeps cycling the eastern ridge. That'll guarantee some 60+ temps popping up around what should be the coldest time of the year. If there's a large cutter to our west it could easily cause temps to spike even higher. Mind you we may already be at +5/6 before the real torch even begins. Can you say top 3 warmest January's.

I don't see prolonged warm/dry like 01/02 with this very active Pacific jet. I think we're going to see some weird anomalies next few months though regarding precip/temps.

There was always a chance of a storm in the Jan 5-10 timeframe so I wouldn't throw out this possibility outright.

There's good evidence of a massive flip by February but the last few Febs have torched too so it's a toss up. Dec -SOI could lead to a colder Feb vs a +SOI last December. I see Jan 07 being thrown around and we know how Feb/March turned out. I'm leaning towards a mid to late Feb flip but an earlier flip is possible if the MJO progresses normally. March will be another cold/stormy month as the drier 11/12 and 01/02 patterns that led to warm Marches don't fit the active streak we're on not to mention the stagnant cold, blocky Marches of the past several years.

We torched in a very low amplitude 4-6 pattern so imagine a much greater version of that. The EPS looks ridiculous in the LR, we're talking 50s & 60s to even 70s for weeks that could start leading to early plant growth especially with no below freezing weather.