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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    It's an outlier at this time.
  2. SnoSki14
    Models starting to come together. If the Ukmet & Euro are on board then we're talking about a major storm.
  3. SnoSki14
    Gfs is quick to decay the CCB and I think the amounts it shows are too light after 72hrs. Mesos will have a better handle on this.
  4. SnoSki14
    It'll tick north to a point. There's a limit to how much further north it can get. The blocking/confluence is sharper than with the Dec storm. The western ridge axis is also further east so the storm won't hug the coastline.
  5. SnoSki14
    We def have to pay attention now. If it snows for 30-36+ hrs within a CCB you're talking 2'+ totals somewhere.
  6. SnoSki14
    What it shows up to 48hrs is likely legit and by then it has a wall of snow from the overrunning coming in. The Nam's crazy totals are possible given the very slow movement and moisture feed. It's gonna snow for a while. However I'd rather play it safe for now. Let's see what the others show.
  7. SnoSki14
    The improvements in the PNA ridge should really make this pop. Given the stalled out nature of this plus the deep flow of moisture someone's gonna score big.
  8. SnoSki14
    For once we may not have an issue with mid-level temperatures.
  9. SnoSki14
    Good to see a mix of more northern solutions in there.
  10. SnoSki14
    I'd be very surprised if the jackpots were south.
  11. SnoSki14
    Anything beyond 48hrs is useless on the NAM. But yes a lesser solution is still on the table especially those north of the city. One of the top analogs was the late Jan 2015 storm. However others like Dec 09, Jan 2016, Dec 2010 and even Jan 96 were in there too.
  12. SnoSki14
    We will adding a lot to this too.
  13. SnoSki14
    That should really help consolidate the energy and it makes it more likely to be tucked in further west. This feels like a system where the amounts will go up as we get closer. I think the odds of a whiff are shrinking.
  14. SnoSki14
    Looks like a gradient battle for Feb. Tons of cold on our side, we'll maintain AO/NAO blocking. SE ridge will be fighting back with MJO stuck at 7. Could be interesting.
  15. SnoSki14
    With primary being pretty far north, 50/50 low moving east, and strong ridging east of New England being the norm I do not think this will be a suppressed system at least not for immediate NYC metro. I think the Euro will come around soon enough.
  16. SnoSki14
    Shocker that you're saying it's a miss. The Euro is an outlier. I do think the cut off will be tight but NYC south will do fine.
  17. SnoSki14
    Hopefully the models are coming together tonight.
  18. SnoSki14
    Um no it isn't lol. 50/50 low quickly moving east. The strong ridging east of New England supports a further west track. I'd rather show models being south right now than a bullseye. Remember what happened in December when we thought we'd get the brunt of it.
  19. SnoSki14
    Yeah if that happens Feb will torch.
  20. SnoSki14
    Euros slow bias is in play. The other models are a good bit faster so that the low ends up further offshore. Can't discount it either just yet.
  21. SnoSki14
    QPF outputs still look very disjointed. Hopefully that clears up as we get closer. Risk for 6"+ event increasing.
  22. SnoSki14
    The blocking will stick around and the trough axis will be to our west. Looks like a lot of cold on our side of the globe though. Some tight gradient storms, SWFE are probable but could benefit New England more than us.
  23. SnoSki14
    I'm not sweating on the thermals. We'll have a nice arctic air supply prior to the storm. Unless the low ends up hugging the coast we should be fine.
  24. SnoSki14
    Gfs is still trending south with the system (primary low). It'll be a while before it gets a clue. Suppression is the biggest concern, not thermals.
  25. SnoSki14
    Isotherm's analysis was def reassuring. This is by far the best chance of snow since December. I wouldn't sweat on the details just yet.
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