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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    CMC follows the deepening low trend, 969mb just north of the city. Has period of very strong gusts (60mph+) especially on LI and coastal sections as low passes through.
  2. SnoSki14
    The PNA loses relevance after Feb 20. In fact snowstorms in the east are more common under -PNA from late Feb through March. I'm more interested to see if the AO/NAO flips by then as they're still relevant until late March.
  3. SnoSki14
    Latest GFS looks even lower at 970 near same spot.
  4. SnoSki14
    Looks fairly active for next few weeks, wouldn't be surprised if we flip to above normal before month ends.
  5. SnoSki14
    Agree probably closer to 60-65mph for parts of LI.
  6. SnoSki14
    All of the LR ensemble runs have been garbage. Im actually more optimistic that they're showing garbage in the long run. March isn't gonna torch though as much as some wish it did. This is a repeating pattern with cold Nov/March and warm to record breaking Jan/Feb.
  7. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts.
  8. SnoSki14
    Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city.
  9. SnoSki14
    Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more.
  10. SnoSki14
    The EPO will be flipping negative and that will initially favor the west. The effects of a -PNA diminish substantially after Feb 20 and I could see the west & east both stay cold. Blocking will likely build too.
  11. SnoSki14
    Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.
  12. SnoSki14
    I sense an extreme reversal of the record breaking +AO/NAO pattern. Extreme flips are the new normal. Expect a few snowy nor'easters and bitterly cold temps for March. Enjoy!
  13. SnoSki14
    We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March. With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon. We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped. 92-93 is a decent analog.
  14. SnoSki14
    Another 80F Feb coming up?
  15. SnoSki14
    Insane we might have another top 5 warmest Feb on record.
  16. SnoSki14
    It's literally been trolling winter lovers all season and yet ppl keep taking the bait.
  17. SnoSki14
    Met winter is most definitely dead. The AO could hit a new record soon, an absurd +6 or better. NAO will also be rising and PNA will tank. Only good news is the EPO will drop but that tends to favor the west first. MJO isn't helpful whatsoever. So given all that I think models will trend stronger with the SE ridging and push the gradient further north. This is a God awful winter pattern and it would be a miracle for it to suddenly reverse heading into March.
  18. SnoSki14
    If Euros huge cutter idea is correct then even they may not see much or at the very least it'll all be washed away.
  19. SnoSki14
    It could just be another BS GFS run. Unless the Euro shows something similar there's no reason to bite on anything.
  20. SnoSki14
    I honestly hope not. I'm so over this winter I don't need another cold March to ruin early Spring. I'll be happy with a 2012 March.
  21. SnoSki14
    Unbelievable not one day is forecast to drop below freezing next 10-15 days. Also looks like a rainy, dreary pattern could set up with the gradient like pattern with highs mostly in the mid to upper 40s. Really ugly if that's true. I'll take warm/dry over that any day. Probably another top 10 warmest month.
  22. SnoSki14
    If this expansion is correct which it appears to be then could winter as we know it be over? If every year will favor MJO 4-6 then what would this mean, is it a forever change or temporary?
  23. SnoSki14
    2011-2012 seems to be the trajectory given the CONUS wide torch and rather dry weather too. Pretty much every indicator out there screams warm/dry too. We'll def know by mid Feb. That's the last time we've had a huge dud so we're due.
  24. SnoSki14
    Somehow I doubt that. The raging AO/NAO are due to flip right around March. Should make for an ugly early spring.
  25. SnoSki14
    I'd frankly be shocked if we didn't see 60s Mon-Wed of next week. 850mb anomalies are well AN and our averages are about to go up.
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