SnoSki14
-
Posts
15,253 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
Don't see why Tuesday won't keep trending warmer. Strong SE ridge, no high whatsoever. Nothing to keep the CAD in place beyond current snow cover. The system is weak overall and moves quickly so it won't be a big torchy cutter or anything. A cold rain looking more likely for a lot of places.
-
OBS and nowcast 9 AM today - Noon Valentines Day Feb 13-14, 2021
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Looks like some light ZR possible soon. -
We'll still have to watch where these highs set up. A high closer to us would def result in much colder surface temps. Models will have difficulty with so many disturbances. I'm leaning towards a cold rain for both Tuesday (mid 30s) & Thursday (near 40) that'll get soaked into the pack. Thursday will def trend much warmer if the big gfs phase is correct...think 50s. Icing issues probable for NW zones.
-
Thats a flood threat.
-
So why couldn't it go back to a wintry look. You can't automatically assume the warm scenario will win out. There's still every reason to believe we get more snow late Feb or March.
-
Signs point to an end to our wintry weather (for now) however I do think we'll see another round of blocking end of Feb or early March.
-
I wonder if flooding will be more of an issue now. The gfs essentially has two cutters with the 2nd bringing rains to Canada.
-
Guidance is coming in warmer so I don't see ZR being a concern. It'll probably just be a cold rain for most of NYC metro. NW areas will need to watch out though. The 18th could be more problematic.
-
Dallas will drop below zero and have teens for highs. Insanity. There will massive impacts on travel and infrastructure. We already saw it with the pileup.
-
Clown range but Nam is really amped on the 16th. Seems like models thinking they'll be a phase, which would be good news for the following system. If the 16th event is strung out then the next system will be a strong cutter or hugger. The recent -5 AO is a huge red flag for a wintry event so I fully expect that to occur at some point before winter ends.
-
We were supposed to be torching right now so the fact that we have 20+ inches in Feb and will likely finish BN for temperatures is a huge feat.
-
If you're hoping for snow you want a more phased event for the 16th. That could push the baroclinicity further east. However even that might not be enough due to the strong SE ridge. I'm hoping we'll end up with a cold rain on Tuesday and then maybe get a snow/ZR thump on Thursday before the changeover.
-
Models are heading that way. Strong high ahead of the hugger.
-
Good news
-
That's a relief. I'll gladly take a cold rain over ice.
-
Texas is in for a hell of a time. Hopefully the warmer guidance is correct and we stay just above freezing.
-
Hopefully that's correct. You don't want ice.
-
It's a major ice storm setup. Very dangerous imo.
-
That's a dangerous icing setup.
-
This storm could signal a pattern change however there are signals that blocking will return late Feb. However I'm pretty sure this will be a cutter. Us having snow cover for more than 2 weeks is very rare so I expect the blocking to break down and a lot of melting to start by the 18-19th storm and beyond. Hopefully the melt doesn't happen all at once. If the 16th storm delivers then that'll aggregate the flooding potential.
-
That'd be nice. I think it's gonna be really close for us.
-
The 14th still looks minor to me. I feel the 16th will be snowier but it'll be close or like a snow to sleet situation. It's by far the biggest wintry threat in the short term. The 18/19 still looks like sleet/ice to rain but strong low level cold could turn it into a more SWFE.
-
I'd go with less like the Canadian shows.
-
The cutter will likely be the 18/19th but Vday and 16th look wintry.
-
Early thoughts are that we take a break from wintry weather after the 16th system however we could see an ice/snow to rain solution for the 18/19 as the low level cold will be tough to scour out. But mostly from the 17-23/24 it looks unfavorable for wintry weather. Beyond that it's possible the blocking returns while the SE ridge diminishes (MJO collapses into circle or goes low amplitude 6-8). If that's the case there could be more wintry opportunities late Feb into March.
