SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Snow is picking up. Better growth rates and radar is looking good.
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Snows picking up around Somerset. Maybe a bit of sleet mixed in but that should go away as snow gets heavier.
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Yes it's starting to come together. Things should crank again very soon.
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Personally I'd be pretty satisfied with the current 6" I have. Getting two 6"+ storms in what was supposed to be a dud winter is a win. No need to panic yet. Miller Bs can have a lull period before they really get going.
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I'd rather let things play out first before sounding the alarm. Precip is very light hence the sleet. We're still waiting for the coastal to fully take control.
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Hopefully that's the case. The latest HRRR only gives us another 6-8" which isn't bad of course but would be a significant bust.
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What are your thoughts on the models? Is the benign HRRR out to lunch here.
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If there's an explosion of precip like the Rgem/Nam or Euro show then yes that'll collapse down.
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We'll know in 2-3hrs. If the Nam/Euro are correct then there should be an explosion of precip that encompasses most of NJ & NYC. If that doesn't happen then the HRRR/3K Nam will be correct.
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It's not. Getting sleet in north central NJ.
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Models are surprisingly kind of all over the place with the HRRR, Nam 12K, Nam 3K, Rgem.
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Snow/sleet mix right now
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Odd how spotty HRRR continues to be. Also did notice Nam is pretty quite until 6-7AM too.
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4" now just a couple inches shy of my December storm totals. Winds picking up a bit. I wasn't expecting so much this early. Dry slot near Philly appears to be filling in. Looks like coastal is about to take over.
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So not only does Nam produce prolific totals but it has legit blizzard conditions. Gusts are 45-55mph
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HRRR is pretty useless beyond 6-12hrs That being said it already shows many parts of NJ at a foot by early afternoon. There will likely be a band that drops 2-4" in an hour.
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Definitely colder & snowier than I expected thus far. Hopefully the rest of the storm overperforms.
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I'm approaching 2" as well near Middlesex/Somerset border. Oddly enough that fits the para gfs jackpot with peak from NW NJ NE PA down to C/NJ.
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Either this model is completely nuts or it's about to score a huge victory.
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This or maybe even a touch south is where I think the jackpot will be.
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I'm not convinced the heaviest totals will be north & west of NYC. Very cold/dry over there and temps have been very cold down to C/NJ. Euro/GFS are further south with jackpot zone. So I have an inkling jackpot will be near or just south of I-78. I'm also basing this off the current overrunning snows which are targeting C/NJ.
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Yes they do but sometimes it's warranted. This was clearly not progged to be an ordinary storm. Several mets picked up on this over a week ago. That being said I won't count my chickens yet.
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You don't say. You mean those crazy analogs people were throwing out 2 days ago that this was definitely not going to hit.