SnoSki14

Models really like the Jan 31 through Feb 2 time frame for storminess. There's a good +PNA spike ahead of it that helps with the two branches phasing. GFS has consistently shown some sort of east coast storm for 5+ consecutive runs now. A bombing coastal is one way to get snow in a poor airmass.

A huge pick-up in activity due to the split flow means we're probably not gonna follow the warm/dry winters. True blocking remains elusive but the Hudson ridge could trigger a -NAO response. I wouldn't entirely dismiss the threats for next week. We do get a +PNA and though the airmass isn't very cold, it can still work out at peak cold climo. Of course we also want coastal tracks, not inland like this weekend. It's probable the MJO emerges at phase 1/2 after Feb 5-10 so pattern should gradually continue to improve after 1st week of Feb. The Alaskan vortex will likely weaken and we may see ridging extend from the Hudson to the typical NAO regions. This all should give us a decent Feb 15 to Mar 15 period.

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. With a lot of luck something good could come out of this.

Marginal air could work though this time of year, it worked in 2006. You just need to get very lucky with everything else. The +PNA is definitely a plus. We're also finally seeing the Nino response which works out well in February so not all is lost.

And we end up with very blase weather pattern that's not exactly a torch but too warm to give us snow. So basically typical March in late Jan.

A lot of our biggest snow events occurred when the wave collapsed in the circle. I think we have a better shot at blocking when the MJO isn't in control. My guess is that the PV starts taking shots after 1st week of February. Idk if a SSW will occur but it doesn't necessarily have to for us to go into a blocking pattern. The long standing +NAO/AO will have to eventually reverse too but that probably won't happen until we see seasonal effects with changing wavelengths + the attacks on the PV. Late winter remains the best opportunity for us to get snows especially if the Nino subtropical jet sticks around.

It could go one of two ways, either it follows the early 2010s warm/dry March pattern or the cold/snowy late 2010s pattern. Given the identical resemblance to last year, Nino status, MJO, NAO/AO parameters from Oct till now & a cold November/near normal December and now warm Jan/Feb? it seems more likely we'll follow the late 2010s pattern. We'll have to see if a SSW event starts showing up by mid Feb as that would guarantee a cold/blocky March/April.

You guys will see 20-30+" from Feb 15 through April 1st. Expect a massive Greenland block after mid February into March. The pattern is following the same beats as past several seasons.

Yeah it's been wonderful. A ruined winter followed by a ruined early spring. I guess snow is snow even if it's gone the next day though those 4 March noreasters from a few years back were fun to track. Too bad the big 1/20 pattern change barely produced.

The MJO should be a non-factor at such low amplitudes & as it remains in the circle. However agree that it may emerge anywhere from 8-2 by mid Feb. We've seen a mostly sustained +NAO/AO period which will almost surely flip in about a month or so. I suppose we could follow years like 11/12 where spring takes hold early but that doesn't fit the current regime.

Well climo isn't working for us now and our biggest snows have recently been in November/March.

Yeah I buy the coastal flooding risks.

Very odd pattern for this time of year. Euro looks like early spring with semi cut-off low pressure systems scouring across the southern US. The only places that'll see BN temperatures are parts of the south due to clouds/rain. There's zero arctic transport so the best you could hope for is a bombing system & perfect track and even that may not do it.

Next week was the potential some people highlighted with the Hudson bay block. They were correct in that regard. Of course none of that matters if the airmass isn't favorable. EPS looks a bit better though.

That's a hail Mary type of threat late next week. Very little cold air but the track may not be terrible. Could be good for New England where they have more breathing room. +PNA & MJO passing thru 7 likely helps. Afterwards the MJO basically stays in the circle. I'm in favor of it popping out near 8 after Feb 10 with lagged impacts 10-14 days later. Early forecasts show it starting that loop as we begin Feb. Should set the stage for a late winter comeback Feb 20 through March.

With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place.

Massive -NAO is equally possible like past few years and I strongly favor it.

JB is looking more stupid each passing day. He said 93/94 and 14/15 was coming in Feb. What a joke! Oh well on to late Feb/March for our next snowstorm. I predict a massive Greenland block as we enter March.

And it's been garbage.

Mt. Holly agrees. Looks like a snow to rain system for most.

My belief is that in due time everyone will transition over simply from market forces alone. Not sure when we'll get to net zero emissions but there's always a new breakthrough on the horizon nuclear fusion being the holy grail of them all. That doesn't mean the transition period won't be rough though. I think a lot of lives will be lost and trillions of dollars from weather related disasters will be commonplace for a few decades before everything stabilizes. I don't think it'll be the end of the world as some proclaim.

3-4" would be like a HECS this season. Nice to see things trend positively as we get close to the event for once.

It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps.

Doesn't look like it'll enter 8 though. Seems it goes through 7 and dies off in circle or stay in 6/7 at very low amplitudes.

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change.