I'm sticking with 4-8" but higher than normal bust potential.
Thinking rapidly intensifying low taking track up to 40/70 should yield better results than a couple inches.
But we'll see, hoping for a positive bust for once.
Based on where the low will be the heaviest stuff should be over central/east NJ into NYC/LI.
Remember the strongest banding tends to be further NW than modeled.
It'll be a fine line between snowy or sleet/rain.
I lean snowy due to the scope of the TPV and recent trends but it could lean either way especially near that 40-41N latitude.
Yes that's true.
I think there will be a bigger storm to follow shortly after the Arctic plunge.
Even if Thursdays storm works out it doesn't scream huge storm to me right now.
I'm a little weary about this one. Too much SE ridging for my liking but there should be ample cold up north to resist it.
There's def a 50/50 in place and hopefully that trends stronger too.
It'll likely be a redeveloper but could favor northern areas. We might see a snow to sleet/rain type storm but it's still early.
I am getting a more northern/warmer PD 2 vibe though.
On those precip charts a lot of that stuff that shows rain would be wet snow.
I still like 6-10" but until other models come onboard I'll hedge closer to 4-8".