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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. This is one of the few times where having a SE ridge may work in our favor.
  2. Strong band still out west in E. PA/W NJ. We'll do very well with this system. Several spots will get 6"+
  3. Nam 3K has picked up amounts. Could be close to 6" for parts of the NYC metro extending into NJ.
  4. Plenty of lift. Doesn't look to shabby. Snow growth should be really good with perhaps better than 10:1 ratios.
  5. That has little to no effect due to wet bulbing. We saw 55+ temps a day before a snowstorm before. Looks like city is 40/18 right now.
  6. I think those heavier amounts will end up 20-30 further NW like we saw with past storm.
  7. HRRR was garbage on Monday. The only thing it got right was the sleet elements.
  8. I'm sticking with 4-8" but higher than normal bust potential. Thinking rapidly intensifying low taking track up to 40/70 should yield better results than a couple inches. But we'll see, hoping for a positive bust for once.
  9. Based on where the low will be the heaviest stuff should be over central/east NJ into NYC/LI. Remember the strongest banding tends to be further NW than modeled.
  10. Always go above forecast on wsw flow during sunny days.
  11. NWS going somewhat against guidance and probably for good reason. Snow growth should be very good for a few hours. 4-8" still looking good
  12. Plenty of days to go. I'd be surprised if it was as far north as the Euro shows. I would feel better living in SNE though.
  13. It'll be a fine line between snowy or sleet/rain. I lean snowy due to the scope of the TPV and recent trends but it could lean either way especially near that 40-41N latitude.
  14. I'm sticking with 4-8" Nearly perfect track with intensifying low will not yield 2-4" totals for the coast.
  15. Yes that's true. I think there will be a bigger storm to follow shortly after the Arctic plunge. Even if Thursdays storm works out it doesn't scream huge storm to me right now.
  16. I'm a little weary about this one. Too much SE ridging for my liking but there should be ample cold up north to resist it. There's def a 50/50 in place and hopefully that trends stronger too. It'll likely be a redeveloper but could favor northern areas. We might see a snow to sleet/rain type storm but it's still early. I am getting a more northern/warmer PD 2 vibe though.
  17. It looks to die in 7 which isn't bad with blocking.
  18. I like globals for track and mesos for precip. Gfs is way too low imo. The current 4-7 forecast looks solid.
  19. On those precip charts a lot of that stuff that shows rain would be wet snow. I still like 6-10" but until other models come onboard I'll hedge closer to 4-8".
  20. I am surprised by how dry models are. The track is pretty much perfect for the coast. Maybe they'll pick things up today.
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