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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Tbf the models did back off of the MJO heading towards 8. The Euro actually has it circling back towards 6 for early Feb, which would be a disaster for winter lovers. Hopefully it's wrong but the Euro did nail the phase 4/5 trajectory. Don mentioned its accuracy isn't as good coming out of those phases so the jury is still out. However if it's correct then we'd only have a 2 week wintry stretch from this weekend into 1st week of February before the warmth returns.
  2. SnoSki14
    We're finally paying for all those blockbuster years though I don't think this winter will be a wash. Not looking forward to the cold later this week though. I'm already longing for spring after last weekend's beautiful weather.
  3. SnoSki14
    Saturdays event likely marks the start of our new pattern. I think a 2-4" front-ender still looks reasonable. There's another threat near the 23/24 that'll bear watching. Beyond that things will continue to trend even better. Record amplitude MJO could really help activate the subtropical jet as widespread cold descends on us. Nino response with phase 8 in Feb would scream KU potential.
  4. SnoSki14
    GFS more in line with Euro. Does hint at a secondary developing east of the Delmarva, we'll have to see if that becomes a trend as it would likely allow cold air to linger longer.
  5. SnoSki14
    It's better than nothing. The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us.
  6. SnoSki14
    I've yet to have snow cover for over 12 hours so yeah it's been pitiful.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yes and they let up on the cold around the 23/24th for a few days. There's some transient ridging in the east around that time. That could change of course.
  8. SnoSki14
    As it stands it would be foolish to dismiss the frozen threat. Models clearly show a cold surface/mid levels until the end. Very strong initial high with very low dews ahead of this thing with high trending stronger due to Thursdays system trending stronger and acting like a transient 50/50 low. This doesn't guarantee anything and a lot could change but that's what I'm seeing right now. Some semblance of last year's November storm.
  9. SnoSki14
    Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start.
  10. SnoSki14
    I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends.
  11. SnoSki14
    Don't see how we wouldn't get 2-4" or more from the front end. Strong surface cold and pretty cold mid-levels to start too. HP is 1040+ before it weakens so some sort of CAD is likely too.
  12. SnoSki14
    I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.
  13. SnoSki14
    Things don't really get more favorable until 1/20 and beyond. However I still wouldn't rule out a front end dump on the 18th given the strong high ahead of it.
  14. SnoSki14
    That should eventually get to phase 8 instead of curling into the COD.
  15. SnoSki14
    It literally feels like a June morning. 66F right now with 60 dews.
  16. SnoSki14
    We could also go into a cold-cutter-cold pattern too like the GFS shows. That's the risk you run without blocking. Still thinking the sustained cold/snow pattern waits until February with shades of 14/15 showing up.
  17. SnoSki14
    Honestly that front end bout could give us more snow than anything we've seen this winter. Airmass is quite cold so a CAD like inversion wouldn't surprise me and neither would a southward primary adjustment.
  18. SnoSki14
    I'd be stunned if March was anything but cold & snowy. Really think the -EPO/+PNA will do a hand-off to the -NAO/AO sometime in February.
  19. SnoSki14
    Today may hit 70F, it's already 63F before 1030
  20. SnoSki14
    The departures are gonna be ridiculous by 1/20. Insane warmth coming up and yet somehow I feel more confident there'll be a big flip soon. Euro still not as cold in the LR as GFS is though...makes sense given its MJO wave progression.
  21. SnoSki14
    I'd be shocked if temps didn't overperform this weekend. If there's breaks in the cloud cover then we'll see 70s.
  22. SnoSki14
    The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in.
  23. SnoSki14
    Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago. We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half. Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually.
  24. SnoSki14
    If you're using the GFS then you're gonna get burnt. Euro is much milder.
  25. SnoSki14
    Wow impressive cold out west is likely. Places like Montana could see -30F or lower temps. Even out towards Seattle could see highs in the teens & 20s with snow possible. Some signs a chunk of that may get here eventually though I remain skeptical of what the GFS shows.
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