SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It's east compared to the other models but it did shift a bit further west from its last run.
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Nam did shift a bit further west from the last run.
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The Nam is still an outlier right now. Others models are more tucked in.
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Interesting how the Nam is starting to get consistent with the more offshore track. And it's within its good range.
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It's gonna be a good hit. Low isn't tucking into the coast.
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Models tend to tick NW until the very end but often the low actually ends up slightly east of projections as the storm is ongoing. However given what happened in December it's best to be cautious. Fingers crossed.
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Will be a good test to see if it's right again.
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A compromise would be nice. I have a feeling north central NJ extending into eastern PA could jackpot here. Under WSW for 11-15" which is pretty good given where we stand. I think we are more likely to see higher amounts than lower with this storm given the extended duration and intense easterly moisture flow.
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Everything up to 36hrs looks good. We'll pick up a few inches with the overrunning. Then they'll likely be a lull as the coastal takes over and finally precip will explode over our area as the low may loop around just offshore. After that we'll have to see where the heaviest bands set up and if we get dry slotted. That will determine who gets the 12-20" amounts. Should be fun to watch unfold.
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That's why you're not supposed to live and die on each model run. Nam looks like an eastern outlier. Possible but consensus is further west.
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This will likely be one of the more gustier storms we see. Good chance of 40-55mph gusts near the coast. It should be a fun event. Don't sweat every model run.
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That wouldn't be rain it would be a dry slot. Probably freezing drizzle.
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Regardless we should still get 6-12" from the overrunning and initial dump. We may also get some backside snows as the low pulls east. There's no need to panic.
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It'll correct as we get closer, it always does.
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Yeah if the ensembles maintain from 06z then screw whatever the OP shows. Still a good hit regardless.
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That's because any 12"+ storm is historic for us and this one looks to nail everyone from DC to Boston, which is even rarer...from a Miller B no less. Given the amount of moisture fed into this and the lengthy period of snow I could see why Jan 2016 could be mentioned. Don't see why we can't see 20"+ amounts honestly.
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Agree. The consensus with the biggest totals is further south. Good to see Nam move away from a hugger. This is looking like a solid MECS with 12-18" totals.
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This is the GFS version that nailed that December event correct?
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Blockiness is winning out. Models are gradually turning back the SE ridge and pumping up Atlantic blocking. Not entirely surprising given very negative AO.
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Oddly enough we'll likely see much more than with the Dec storm but NWS is keeping forecast amounts low. The day before the December storm they had widespread 12-20" amounts in the forecast now it's more like 6-12"
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Weren't you just panicking about it being suppressed.
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Nam is a northern outlier and Ukie southern outlier. The rest basically jackpot the NYC metro. 06 GFS/GEFS are excellent.
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It'll be fine. Gfs & Rgem held.
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It's been all over the place. Every other models went NW.